National Poll Compendium, March Edition
by Chris Bowers, Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 10:10:44 AM EDT
With the announcement phase of the campaign behind us and several organizations now conducting national polls without Al Gore, we have finally reached a point in the campaign where we can look at enough solid, national polling to view the campaign from its "starting line." The past five weeks have given us eleven national polls without Gore, but with all the other announced candidates. The table below summarizes the results of those polls:
Post-Announcement Phase, Non-Gore National Polls
So, there you have the current national polling picture for the 2008 Democratic primary. Clinton is slightly less than Obama and Edwards combined, and Obama is slightly less than Edwards doubled. The rest of the field, combined, comes in a few points behind than Edwards. The five Rasmussen polls can be found here, and the six non-Rasmussen polls can be found here. I only incorporated polls that did not include Gore, but did include all announced candidates. I feel those are pre-requisites to accurate polling at this time, although I wish organizations such as ABC-WaPo, Gallup and NBC-WSJ wouldn't push undecided so damn hard.
With a defacto national primary on February 5th, national polls mean quite a bit this time around. Right now, Clinton is clearly the front-runner, although Obama is a somewhat surprisingly strong second. Edwards remains in the hunt due to his continued double-digit support, and his early state strength. Trying to predict he future direction of these polls is difficult. The momentum does seem to favor Obama, but it remains to be seen what impact, if any, the Elizabeth Edwards announcement will have on the polling picture. With the exception of the final day of the final Rasmussen poll, which showed a noticeable uptick for Edwards, every single one of these polls was completed before that announcement, and more than a week after Obama declared he was formally joining the campaign.
Post-Announcement Phase, Non-Gore National Polls
| Poll | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined Eleven Poll Mean | 38.1 | 26.7 | 13.7 | NA | NA |
| Rasmussen Mean, 2/19-3/22 | 36.2 | 26.6 | 14.2 | NA | NA |
| CNN, 3/11 | 44 | 23 | 14 | 8 | 10 |
| ARG, 3/5 | 34 | 31 | 15 | 6 | 14 |
| NBC, 3.5 | 40 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 5 |
| Gallup, 3/4 | 44 | 27 | 10 | 12 | 3 |
| ABC, 2/25 | 43 | 27 | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| Zogby, 2/24 | 33 | 25 | 12 | 11 | 20 |
| Non-Rasmussen Mean | 39.7 | 26.8 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 9.3 |
So, there you have the current national polling picture for the 2008 Democratic primary. Clinton is slightly less than Obama and Edwards combined, and Obama is slightly less than Edwards doubled. The rest of the field, combined, comes in a few points behind than Edwards. The five Rasmussen polls can be found here, and the six non-Rasmussen polls can be found here. I only incorporated polls that did not include Gore, but did include all announced candidates. I feel those are pre-requisites to accurate polling at this time, although I wish organizations such as ABC-WaPo, Gallup and NBC-WSJ wouldn't push undecided so damn hard.
With a defacto national primary on February 5th, national polls mean quite a bit this time around. Right now, Clinton is clearly the front-runner, although Obama is a somewhat surprisingly strong second. Edwards remains in the hunt due to his continued double-digit support, and his early state strength. Trying to predict he future direction of these polls is difficult. The momentum does seem to favor Obama, but it remains to be seen what impact, if any, the Elizabeth Edwards announcement will have on the polling picture. With the exception of the final day of the final Rasmussen poll, which showed a noticeable uptick for Edwards, every single one of these polls was completed before that announcement, and more than a week after Obama declared he was formally joining the campaign.
Tags: polls, President 2008 (all tags)
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