Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

Markos did another leadership poll, and while Pelosi and Dean slipped about 5-10 points, they still retain approval ratings in the 80s.  Blog readers like them both, immensely.  Harry Reid though took a big tumble. Here are his numbers today.

Reid Approval - February 27, 2007

In November, though there was no 'Don't know' option in the poll, Reid had a robust 80-19 approve/disapprove.  

Approval Ratings

The poll in November pushed leaners, of course, but even assuming that we push all the undecideds to the pro-Reid camp, his approvals went down by 16 points and his disapprovals went up by 15.  And that's assuming some very generous parameters.  It's more likely that Reid has dropped by around 30-40 points in the overall estimation of the netroots, which brings him into line with progressive bloggers in Nevada (who don't really like him all that much).  The large number of undecideds suggest that Reid doesn't necessarily have long to act forcefully before he will have a net negative approval rating online.

Could it have anything to do with what Digby points out:

You'll have to excuse me if I'm too cynical here, but I just can't wrap my mind around the fact that Harry Reid and Chuck Shumer aren't aware of all this. Which means that all this tip-toeing around Joe Lieberman is a very fancy kabuki dance. Which also means we really have to question whether they mean to pass any legislation at all.

I don't know how you can read this any other way. We pesky anti-Iraq war liberals are happy to blame him for everything and so we aren't looking at this closely enough. And Lieberman is likely very happy to play the independent maverick and doesn't mind being the Democratic Martyr of Iraq.

But I have to say that I'm just a teensy bit disappointed in the Democrats. This is a war we're talking about not some tax cut legislation. They don't have to do anything that unctuous creep tells them to do. He is holding nothing over their heads and yet everyone is pretending that they are worried about appeasing Old Joe and so they can't actually get anything done on Iraq.

You can't help but wonder if Lieberman and the Senate Dems aren't working the same side after all.

Atrios notes this quite frequently.  The public hates George Bush.  They hate this war.  If you stand up to George Bush and/or this war, the public will love you.  If you don't, the public will hate you or find you useless.

Apparently, the blog reading netroots is no different.  I'm glad to see this happening, since it shows that blog readers are not mindlessly tribal in loving Democrats.  Blog readers are at least tracking the public in attitudes on Iraq, and are willing to show explicit disapproval of leaders who betray them.

That's blog readers.  But what about bloggers themselves or other leaders of the netroots?  In all honesty, I think we're a bit confused.  To date, I have seen no organized attempt to hold Democrats accountable the way we did Joe Lieberman in 2006.  That's not to say it won't happen, but it isn't yet happening.  When I argue for primaries, I'm often mocked for making 'threats' even though it's clear that working through the primary process is the way that the public is heard.  

The leaders of the netroots have not stepped up yet on Iraq, and we need to figure out a strategy to do so.  We need your help.  One of our problems is that we can't find or agree on a bright line to draw, so we can't make good arguments for why members of Congress should be challenged in the electoral realm.  We could argue for withdrawal, but even Hillary Clinton has a withdrawal plan, and I have no idea how to trust her.  So that's out.  We could discuss defunding, but I'm not sure what the contours are.  Maybe the Murtha plan?  

What do we get behind?  I kind of like the Murtha plan, because we can begin to ask members of Congress whether they support allowing Bush to send troops to Iraq underequipped or whether they support the troops.

This hasn't caught fire, but it could.  The dissatisfaction with Reid, which hasn't happened because of any overt campaign but more of a general murmuring, suggests that there's an organizing opportunity.

Tags: Harry Reid, Iraq, Jack Murtha, Nancy Pelosi, netroots, straw poll (all tags)

Comments

24 Comments

So what

should we hold Reid accountable for?

by taylormattd 2007-02-27 10:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You
Frankly, this post is ridiculous.
Harry Reid has 51 Democratic senators.
One is convalescing and one is Joe Lieberman,
so that leaves at best 49 Democratic senators
to work with, in an institution that requires
60 votes to do anything important.
by strings 2007-02-27 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

What is ridiculous? None of the facts you state seems to be pertinent to that claim. Could you elaborate?

by lightyearsfromhome 2007-02-27 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You
People are frustrated with Harry Reid
because he cannot get things through the Senate.
But that should come as no surprise, given the
arithmetic.
by strings 2007-02-27 11:25AM | 0 recs
another thing that hurt Reid
I think another thing that hurt Reid was sucking up to Fox. when looking to push down approval ratings, it always helps to have multiple sources of consternation. that way you get a general negative sense about someone, rather than argument over one topic.
by Chris Bowers 2007-02-27 10:12AM | 0 recs
Re: another thing that hurt Reid

That was how I voted. I gave Dean a break because I only had one knock against him. Reid has at least 2.

by js noble 2007-02-27 10:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

On the question of what should we get behind, I think you are going at it from the wrong direction.  Rather than looking for where to put the bright line that will be as far to the left as possible but still unite Democrats we should be looking at the long list of issues that are NOWHERE NEAR this bright line but which EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRAT can agree on.  I have a suggestion for where to start in the case of Iraq:

The Democratic Party is against the permanent occupation of Iraq and therefore renounces the building or maintenance of any permanent bases there.

Even Joe L. might be able to get behind that one even though that isnt a criterion I would pick.  Once we get agreement on this we move to the next easiest issue.  That way we build up momentum as we move along and are likely to get agreement on a far more progressive ultimate position than if we start with the most progressive position that is politically possible.

After all, nobody really doubts where the Dems are headed.  We want out.  They dont.  Saying we dont want to stay "forever" isnt a very extreme position but it happens to be one the Republicans wouldnt agree with.  Time to stick that in their faces.

by sck5 2007-02-27 10:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

The Democratic Party is against the permanent occupation of Iraq and therefore renounces the building or maintenance of any permanent bases there.

Just publicly committing to no permenent occupation would be a good thing, it would also expose they real Republican agenda.

by Alice Marshall 2007-02-27 10:20AM | 0 recs
no permanent occupation

This is clearly the most obvious point on which we all can agree - that we don't intend to stay forever. It seems rather obvious, but it's not. There are forces in the government that do want a permanent military presence. This was the primary motivation for the invasion in the first place. At the very least, both the House and Senate need to make clear that we do intend to leave at some point. That means no permanent bases, no trainers, no advisers. The next step would be to get a withdrawal started as soon as possible, but I don't see where the first step has even been settled yet. If Dems can frame a vote as either yes or no to permanent occupation, I bet they can get plenty of Republicans on board. This is important because it goes beyond what the Baker commission advocated. From what I could tell, the baker commission goal was to reduce troop levels down to possibly as high as 70,000. That's still an occupation, and I doubt the public is really on board with that.

by miasmo 2007-02-27 12:15PM | 0 recs
Quite right

The enduring bases thing is really strange. Like body armor, it's been there pretty much from the start; but the Dems have (so far as I'm aware) made nothing of it politically.

Get it in the Iraq supplemental bill, surely?

That could be the netroots' particular thing.

Great idea.

by skeptic06 2007-02-27 01:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

thank you matt.

i for one am extremely frustrated. murtha's funding constraints ought to be the minimal response. personally, i prefer NO MORE FUNDING FOR THE OCCUPATION. and no more forcing an oil law to benefit USA oil companies.  these two things make the world more dangerous for americans - and do iraqis no good either.

funding for troop safety, troop withdrawl, non-military aid for iraqis (especially refugees)... that's what we should be doing.

by selise 2007-02-27 10:16AM | 0 recs
p.s.

one thing i should mention is that whatever plan we endorse - it ought to be doable with 40 senators... 'cuz right now we don't have a majority to end the war.

by selise 2007-02-27 10:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

Not sure if you are just talking about how to wake up Senators or talking about getting out of Iraq.

For my part I think we could learn a lot from the Free South Africa movement. Time to shift from Capitol hill to other areas.

The Free South Africa movement demonstrated at gold exchanges and other businessess with heavy SA investment. Maybe it is time to take a look at that sort of work.

by Alice Marshall 2007-02-27 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

By trying to find a 'bright line' we stray into the promotion of extremely specific policies. I don't think that's the strength of the netroots: we're good at generalized pressure in a desired direction, not at fine-tuning details.

We get behind the Murtha plan, then what happens when another plan, either almost or just as good--or better--emerges? We back the best one? We stick with our bright line? We include every possible plan that's okay? There's a dozen withdrawal/defunding plans, and I'm a committed blog-reader and I don't have a clue which is which.

Best not to get started with that. How about looking at this from another direction? If some withdrawal/defunding plan isn't passed by such-and-such a date, then we freak out. Pin this to the date instead of the content?

Or: if such-and-such a parliamentary procedure (refusing the let the Senate go into recess, or whatever--I dunno anything about procedure) isn't utilized, then we freak.

Or: if X, Y, and Z aren't brought to a vote, then we freak.

I guess I'm asking more than I'm telling: what bright lines can we draw that aren't tied to specific plans?

by BingoL 2007-02-27 10:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

Here is a petition to congresspersons with a fairly Liberal agenda, The Iraq section:

END THE WAR IN IRAQ NOW through support of the Woolsey-Waters-Lee "Bring the Troops Home and Iraqi Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2007"; H.R. 508, and renunciation of George Bush's pre-emptive war doctrine in all its manifestations. The Bush war policy is a formula for endless global conflict, deterioration of the rule of law among nations, and growing impoverishment, indebtedness and evisceration of civil liberties at home. Further, the CBC must resist all attempts to draw the U.S. into war with Iran, and block covert and overt U.S. schemes for "regime change" elsewhere in the world, most notably in Venezuela.

by Zimbel 2007-02-27 10:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

Well I actually like the primary strategy. But theres no way the netroots or even the progressive movement in general has enough resources to fund primary challenges against every Democrat who is reaffirming Republican frames, undermining efforts to defund the war etc.

I say pick one of the worst and crusify them. Hammer them day after day on the blogs and start looking for a challenger. Pick a target with a solidly blue constituency and without particularly strong fundraising and campaigning.

Targeting someone in the Democratic leadership would produce more results if we won but obviously it would also be harder. God would I love to see a challenge to Rahm though. I'd spend a summer in Chicago, for sure.

by js noble 2007-02-27 10:52AM | 0 recs
To be fair to Sen Reid

Sen Reid has a more difficult task considering he does not have a majority.  (Lieberman is not in D camp) .  

In order to pass legislation he needs to compromise which angers netroots.

If the legislation has no possibility of passing--why waste time--this even angers the netroots more.

The solution is to make sure we have a bigger veto proof majority in the Senate.

by jasmine 2007-02-27 11:57AM | 0 recs
I have an idea.

This is a structural suggestion. I think Dems in Congress would be doing much better on this and other issues if they were in better communication with their constituents, especially activists and netroots. What if all you influential bloggers get together and start a campaign to pressure all congressional Dems to pledge to attend a local meet-up on a monthly basis. I think a little face-to-face time with impatient voters would do wonders for congressional attitudes. What do you think?

by miasmo 2007-02-27 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

We should promote the Murtha plan.  The moles in the party can't stab us in the back with it, by confirming the not supporting the troops meme.

by Dameocrat 2007-02-27 01:27PM | 0 recs
Democrats Stand UP!

If the Democrats decide to do nothing to end the Iraq war, I think the Republicans will use it to win the election in '08.  EVERYONE wants this war to end.  There is no greater issue.  Stumble around, Democrats, and watch what the machine does to you.  Do NOT be fooled.  They will use your inaction against you, and we will all lose.

by USAagain 2007-02-27 05:24PM | 0 recs
Reality

More or less for the Democrats to pass anything inrealtion to ending the war in Iraq. They have to figureout how to Pressure 10 or 11 Republican Senators to vote for it,and very simply Republicans still support this stupidity in large numbers. It's not because there are that many more people who support this or much more support by number but simply because people who disagree with the policy are simply leaving the republican party and becoming ind or liberterians. Therefore creating a higher conduction of pro-war votes inside the republican party. Therefore it doesn't benefit more than maybe 5 of the republicans to take any stand on the war at all.

by orin76 2007-02-27 06:15PM | 0 recs
Blame the Republicans

Bush and Republican Senators are blocking progress.  Blaming Reid and the Dems does not help. Blaming the GOP loudly and often for stalling will up the  pressure.  

Repeat after me:

It is the Republicans that are blocking the Senate from discussing Iraq and bringing our troops home.

by bakho 2007-02-27 06:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Blame the Republicans

Bakho,

Then it's Reid's job to promote anti-war legislation, and as often as possible. let the Republicans hang themselves. Don't let them off the hook by not challenging them.

by LnGrrrR 2007-02-28 04:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Weak on Iraq? Then No One Likes You

Murtha Plan, all the way. It doesn't even make sense when the right argues that it helps to undermine our troops. I'd love for someone to call them on that claim.

by LnGrrrR 2007-02-28 04:35AM | 0 recs

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