Obama leads in the general?

by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Feb 26, 2007 at 04:50:35 PM EST

Earlier, Chris Bowers had posted here about the three most recent national polls that were taken, and Zogby's is included. Obama has a lead in Zogby's for the general that's notable. Is it an outlier? Maybe, but it's something to consider.

The Zogby poll was taken Feb 22-24, just after the Geffen incident. Obama's lead over Giuliani and McCain is roughly reverse of the lead of Giuliani and McCain over Edwards and Clinton. The substance here is that somewhere out there, among among the 836 polled nationwide, there are 6-7% out there that are saying "yes" to the Democrat if it's Obama.

Now, in the Q poll from Feb. 13-19, Obama was getting beat just as badly as Edwards, and a bit worse than Clinton, and this is Zogby (so spare me in the comments). Maybe things haven't shifted, but maybe they have and there's a post-Geffen landscape now.

Edwards says, nah, that Geffen-spat was just press silliness. I'd bet he's right over Zogby.

A couple of other interesting developments:

With Obama -- very Dean-like -- the press is highlighting Obama's message on the campaign trail with things like "Obama plays up early opposition to war" and "Obama carves anti-war stance."

Clinton and Obama are both appearing at the Selma bridge crossing next Sunday in Alabama. Obama was planning it first, but Bill is getting an award.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

Seems like good news. When I see it from a real polling firm i'll be excited.

by blueryan 2007-02-26 04:55PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

6% over Giuliani? That is the most inspiring number I have seen so far in ANY poll.

by LandStander 2007-02-26 05:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

Possibly. I hear so many Republican friends and family say they are at least intrigued by Obama. These are the type of people who would never consider Hillary. (Don't know how they feel about Edwards or Richardson.) They're the ones who brought up Obama to me, as in "So what do you think of this Obama guy?" Also, my Republican neighbors jokingly (?) said they would even start a Republicans for Obama. I think he is appealing to them because he is new and different. Let's see if this fascination holds up once they find out more about him.

by exLogCabin 2007-02-26 05:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

tell your neighbors there is a Republicans for Obama web site. and an Indies for Obama. i read about it in my local (rockford, IL) paper the day he announced. There were all kinds of stories like that over that weekend.

by vwcat 2007-02-26 05:59PM | 0 recs

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wait until the hate machine kicks in

These Republicans will all find excuses not to vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is once the right-wing hate machine turns on for a few months.

I do think that there are swing voters who would not consider Hillary but would consider several of the other Democratic contenders, including Obama.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-26 06:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: wait until the hate machine kicks in

Personally I think there is more to it than that and I am surprised progressive Democrats are pushing back on this apparent opportunity.

This is the stuff of dreams for Democrats. And Obama is not pandering to Right wing themes to achieve this. Why do you find this dubious or threatening? I really want to understand the objections better.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-26 06:34PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

I took a lot of flak here for standing up to Obama's post-partisan message as if it was some kind of disloyalty to Democrats but to me this is the potential pay-off. What is the downside as long as progressive principles are not compromised? We have sensible solutions in the Blue states, and responsible citizens in the Red states.

Works for me.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-26 06:44PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

Hey to me the best revenge against the GOP is to attract the Obama Republicans... Similiar to what Reagan did to us with the "Reagan" Democrats... Its only going to be middle of the road Republicans or those completely put off by the Religious Right, but you pull enough of that GOP minority along with a majority of Indies and you not only Win, you have a MANDATE!

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-27 12:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

Personally, I think this has been Obama's strategy from day one. I cannot understand why he gets attacked for being post-partisan and expressing his faith when this is the obvious potential.

And I am very confident that core progressive ideals are not in the least compromised by him in this approach. It always seemed clever and a win/win for the good guys. It's a wonder some folks don't seem to get it. This guy wants a landslide mandate, then watch out! I think he is doing brilliantly so far. And the polls will soon reflect the major cities strategy he has adopted, there is plenty of time.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-27 02:29PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

Given that it is Zogby, I wouldn't be surprised if he fiddled with the numbers to make Obama come out on top (knowing what we know about Zogby's politics). Oh well, it's interesting if nothing else.

by adamterando 2007-02-26 05:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

The substance here is that somewhere out there, among among the 836 polled nationwide

A general election consisting only of likely Dem and likely Repub primary voters?

by dblhelix 2007-02-26 05:26PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

A previous engagement prevents me from being in Selma on Sunday, but if I could be there, I would want to be at Brown Chapel AME to see and hear Barak Obama. Hillary will be a few blocks away at the same time, but I wouldn't go out of my way to hear her. My feeling is that Hillary won't say anything that would surprise me, but Obama might.

Probably the two venues are nowhere near the same size, so there will be no apples to apples comparison of crowd size, but it would sure be interesting to see which candidate gets a bigger crowd when people have to choose between them.

The Alabama Democratic Party has been leaning on big Dawgs like these two to do a fundraiser for the party whenever they come to Alabama to campaign/fundraise. Here's hoping they will be doing that this weekend as well.

by Mooncat 2007-02-26 05:34PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

Don't care whose poll it is. the fact is that Hillary is not looking so inevitable after all and I am jumping up and down with joy.
I especially love the fact that the repubs are beating Hillary in head to head but, Obama beats them. So, who is electable???
I bet Sunday is going to be a place many would love to see. There is Obama looking all cool and classy as always and Hillary looking like the shrew she is.

by vwcat 2007-02-26 05:57PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

It will be interesting to see who attracts the most support in Selma. Since Clinton is attracting the bulk of the African American vote in every state it might very well be Clinton.

by robliberal 2007-02-26 06:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

She is? Bill might be but I'm not sure about her.

by Yoshimi 2007-02-26 06:21PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

Yes, that will be interesting. We'll see, won't we.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-26 06:46PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

shrew? oh come on...

by timlhowe 2007-02-27 02:13AM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama leads in the general?

if you look at pictures from the Obama Cleveland rally, it does not appear that he is struggling to garner interest/support from the African American community. barackobama.com

by chrisbrandow 2007-02-26 07:30PM | 0 recs

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My take :)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/2/26/ 191634/901

by faithfull 2007-02-26 08:40PM | 0 recs

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Clinton underpreforms

Rasmussen, earlier this month, noted that Obama (and Edwards to a lesser extent) both outpreform Clinton in the General. So, it has been something that polling outfits have been picking up on.

by faithfull 2007-02-26 08:42PM | 0 recs