A Good National Poll
by Chris Bowers, Sat Feb 24, 2007 at 09:41:38 AM EST
Cook / RT Strategies, 2/15-2/18, 390 Dems and leaners, MoE 5.0. Trend from Nov-Dec 2006.
|Candidate||1st Choice||Trend||1st + 2nd Choice||w/o Clinton||w/o Obama||w/o Edwards|
Here are some quick thoughts on this poll:
- No evidence of an anti-Clinton vote. Clinton actually receives the majority of second-place votes from Obama supporters (55%), and a narrow plurality of second-place votes from Edwards supporters (25%). It is interesting that Obama supporters seem far more drawn to Clinton as a second place choice than are Edwards supporters.
- Top-tier dominates second place. Clinton, Obama, and Edwards supporters all give at least 75% of their second-choice support either to "not sure" or another top-tier candidate. Even Edwards has as many 1st place plus 2nd place votes as all non-top tier candidates combined.
- Richardson is the second tier. Richardson is clearly in a tier by himself right now, well behind the big three but well ahead of the rest.
- Clinton dominates "other" vote As more polls start to drop Gore from their questions, expect Clinton to continue to rise. Her gain in this poll was drawn almost entirely from "other," and she will receive the majority of support that would have gone to Gore in any poll that does not include Gore. Quite frankly, no national poll should include Gore. I really don't know how much clearer he can make it that he is not running before more polling firms start to wake up. No poll that includes Gore has any claim to offering an accurate view of this campaign.