Obama Holds His Largest Lead Ever in Iowa Poll
by Jonathan Singer, Thu Dec 06, 2007 at 07:03:11 AM EST
Republican pollster Strategic Vision is out with new numbers from Iowa that seem to gibe with the general trends from both the Democratic and Republican primaries, with both Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee leading their respective party's field in the first early nominating state. Take a look at the latest survey of 600 likely Democratic caucus goers (11/30-12/2, MoE +/- 4.5%), along with the Pollster.com average out of the state (which includes this SV poll).
| Candidate | 12/2 (11/25) | Pollster |
| Obama | 32 (29) | 26.4 |
| Clinton | 25 (29) | 27.9 |
| Edwards | 25 (23) | 21.8 |
| Biden | 5 (4) | 4.6 |
| Richardson | 3 (6) | 8.3 |
| Dodd | 1 (1) | 1.0 |
| Kucinich | 1 (1) | 1.2 |
| Undecided | 8 (7) | N/A |
These moves from two weeks ago are all within the margin of error for the poll, as is Obama's lead, so as is almost always the case with these things, one need remember not to place excessive attention on the results of a single poll. That said, looking at the trend of all polling out of Iowa, one cannot help but come away with the sentiment that Obama is on a steady rise in the state while Clinton is nearing or has already hit her peak in the state.
The other key take away from these numbers is that Bill Richardson seems to be hemorrhaging support in Iowa while Biden may be picking up a bit of support here and there. If you had asked me even a month ago what one of the most important yet insufficiently discussed aspects of the campaign in Iowa was I would have said (a) whether Richardson's 10-12 support statewide would be spread in such a way that he would be viable in a good number of caucus locations; and (b) where his support would go in those locations where he did not meet the 15 percent threshold for viability. Yet if Richardson is really down in towards 3 percent support -- four of the past five polls from the state show he's pulling in single-digit support in the state after having consistently polled in the low double-digits or high single-digits since May -- where his support goes becomes a lot less important of a question.
Finally, on the Republican side, it's pretty unambiguously clear that Mitt Romney has lost his lead in Iowa, a lead that had endured pretty well for at least a half a year. Romney and Huckabee are effectively tied in the state at this point, with Huckabee perhaps holding a small advantage in polling (he's up 3 points in this poll, 27 percent to 24 percent) and Romney seemingly holding an organizational advantage. No one else in the Republican field seems to have a genuine shot at carrying Iowa at this point.
Tags: 2008, Democratic primaries, Democrats, Iowa, Iowa Caucuses (all tags)
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