Predictions for 2008
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Dec 31, 2007 at 08:19:35 AM EST
Looking through my predictions for 2007, it appears that I was on the mark in some areas and quite a bit off the mark in others. For instance, I was unfortunately correct in predicting that the number of American forces in Iraq would not decrease and that the economy would be heading towards recession even as the stock market continues to appear fairly strong. I was also not too far out in predicting that the Democrats would be able to pass a good deal of their agenda through the House but have more difficulty getting it through the Senate. In other areas I was more far off, however. Al Gore and Newt Gingrich didn't get in the race while Rudy Giuliani actually did, and the Jack Abramoff scandal has appeared to wane. As for some thoughts on 2008...
- I'm not going to touch my picks for who will secure the Republican and Democratic nominations, but more broadly I see the Democratic nominee winning with about 52-53 percent of the popular vote and somewhere in the range of 325 electoral voters.
- In the race for control of Congress, I see the Democrats maintaining their majorities in both chambers and in fact growing their numbers. In the Senate, I see the Democrats netting a pickup of 3-5 seats, with the number more likely falling above than below that range. I also see the Democrats picking up a net 10-15 seats in the House, again with a greater potential to be above that mark then below it. A half dozen or fewer freshmen Democrats in the House will lose their seats.
- The number of American troops serving in Iraq again will not significantly decrease in 2008. There may be some minor ebbs and flows, with perhaps even a few tens of thousands of troops coming home ahead of election day in November (particularly if the Republican nominee is trailing in the polls). But overall America will not be much or any closer to extricating itself from Iraq come next December than it is today.
- The economy will continue to see a very low level of growth, perhaps even dipping into a recession during the middle of the year. As such, the state of the economy will weigh heavily on the minds of most voters.
- The Democrats' agenda will largely continue to stall on Capitol Hill as Republicans continue to stand arm-in-arm with the Bush White House in attempting to inhibit change. This is a large part of the reason why the Republicans will face such difficulty in the congressional and even presidential elections next fall, and at least one or two (and possibly more) Republican members from fairly Republican districts will be amazed to find themselves out of office on account of their knee-jerked support for the President.
That's all I've got right now. Still not feeling particularly well with whatever is going around these days. But what say you about these predictions? What do you foresee happening over the next year?
Tags: 2008, predictions (all tags)
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