"If The Caucus Were Held Tonight..."
by Todd Beeton, Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 01:46:44 PM EST
Even as Clinton and Obama have traded the "lead" in Iowa over the past few months, the general narrative to spring from the polling of the state is that it's a 3-way tie. The reason for this, beyond the fact that many of the polls show the top three candidates within the margin of error, is that while Edwards may poll in 3rd place consistently, the internals such as his support among previous caucus-goers and his strong second choice support, in addition to a strong ground organization, have led to a perpetual offshoot of this narrative, namely that if the caucus were held tonight, John Edwards would win.
Edwards's campaign has cleverly perpetuated this narrative through well-timed endorsements and conference calls with press. A perfect example of this is the sort of coverage Edwards got after this morning's conference call to announce the endorsement of Iowa Congressman Bruce Braley.
From Marc Ambinder:
On a conference call held to talk about Iowa and the new Bruce Braley endorsement of John Edwards, deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince said that the Edwards campaign has trained at least two precinct captains in more than 87 percent of caucus precincts statewide.Generally, campaigns don't release this kind of info, but in Edwards's case, it reinforces the case made by rival campaigns privately: if the caucuses were held tonight, based on organization alone, Edwards would probably win.
And from Iowa Independent:
Today, Iowa Independent releases its second round of Democratic Power Rankings, seeking again to answer the question, "If the caucuses were held tonight, what would be the results?" Our hope is that although our methodology is notably unscientific, the list below will provide our readers one more point of reference while reading horse-race stories from day to day. [...]First Place
John Edwards -- Although his endorsement from Congressman Bruce Braley did not come as much of a surprise (Braley was a strong Edwards supporter in 2004), it will certainly help assuage fears among his supporters that his candidacy has lost its momentum. And, as revealed Monday morning on a conference call, the former North Carolina senator has recruited multiple precinct captains in 87% of Iowa's precincts, demonstrating the continuing superiority of his grassroots organization.
But sometimes, the campaign gets a little assistance, as it did today in the form of an Iowa State University Poll, which shows Edwards in second place overall:
Clinton 30.8
Edwards 24.4
Obama 20.2
...and in first among likely caucus-goers' second choice:
Edwards 22.7
Obama 20.1
Clinton 13.8
Now, as Jonathan mentioned earlier, there is plenty to be suspicious about in this poll (i.e. it's old -- it was in the field 11/6-11/18, and it has a huge MOE of +/- 6%.) But those details are irrelevant when it comes to perpetuating a sense of Edwards's continued viability in the Iowa caucus and on that score, Edwards has had a very good day. Questions remain, of course: is the claim "John Edwards would win if the caucus were held tonight" more than just merely a narrative and will it be as true on January 3 as it appears to be today?
Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, Iowa caucus, John Edwards (all tags)
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