Early Caucus Date Complicates Matters

The Iowa caucus has never been as early as January 3 before, so hasn't run into this sort of complication (h/t TPM.)

The University of Iowa will not open up housing during winter break to accommodate students who want to return for the Jan. 3, 2008 caucuses.

According to the Iowa Press Citizen, the state's other public universities, University of Northern Iowa and Iowa State University will have housing available for students who wish to return. As for U of I:

"We know what the other schools are doing. We are not staying closed just for the sake of staying closed," Stange said. "A lot of it has to do with the availability of staffing. The other part has to do with ... we haven't assessed a need in order to do it yet." [...]

Stange said Mayflower and Hillcrest will be the only residence halls that will stay open throughout the break. He said the university already is using temporary housing to compensate for the overflow of students who don't fit in the dorms, so there is not extra space for students who want to return.

For those U of I students who will be returning to caucus, all is not lost. Iowa House Hotel will be offering a special caucus rate for students of $49 per night for Jan. 2 and 3.

This is yet another challenge for the campaign organizations, especially those of Obama and Clinton who need to expand the caucus universe if they want to win. While this development would appear to hurt Obama more as he does especially well among younger voters, TPM argues that's not necessarily so. At the very least, it's yet another factor of the student vote the Obama campaign is going to have to address and is further evidence of the importance of the on the ground organization to winning the caucus.

There's another obstacle to some potential caucus-goers on January 3rd: the Orange Bowl is airing that night. On some level this could help Clinton by keeping men at home but it doesn't look like it will be much of a factor.

The latest Iowa Poll shows that just...4 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers are very tempted to instead stay home on the night of Jan. 3 to watch the prime-time football game.

An additional...13 percent on the Democratic side are tempted to a lesser degree to opt for football instead of presidential politics.

One factor that has no clear beneficiary is the fact that people will be traveling for the holidays. As for whether potential caucus-goers have changed their plans to be back for the caucus...

The date change brought the caucuses close to the New Year's holiday. But the poll shows less than 10 percent of likely caucus participants for each party changed travel or vacation plans in order to be able too take part in the political competition.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, Iowa caucus (all tags)

Comments

11 Comments

It will hurt Obama

Getting younger people to show up is a challenge even under ideal circumstances. Couple that with the Jan. 3 date and the fact that many of these university-area precincts will have few delegates anyway (the number available is based on turnout from last time, not this time), and Obama could seriously underperform his poll numbers.

As an Edwards backer, I'd like to see Obama edge Hillary for a distant second, but it won't be easy.

by MeanBoneII 2007-12-03 11:13AM | 0 recs
Now
Someoe asks you this question - will you do your civic duty on a cold night and go caucus for a couple of hours or will you stay home and watch the national championship game, what are you likely to say? There is a poll result I will NEVER trust. But some will I suppose.
by Big Tent Democrat 2007-12-03 11:19AM | 0 recs
True, but the teams aren't of much interest...

...to Iowans, anyway. I would think most people serious enough about politics to go to the caucus won't be staying home to watch this game.

Now if the Hawkeyes had somehow managed to get into this game, Hillary would have this in the BAG :)

by MeanBoneII 2007-12-03 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: True, but the teams aren't of much interest...
Actually, who is playing? I thought it was national champioship night. That is the 7th. Never mind. Va Tech v. Kansas? Very few will watch that. I take it all back.
by Big Tent Democrat 2007-12-03 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Now

FYI, That ISN"T the national title game... The national title game is on Jan 7th.  Its just a BCS bowl... If the Hawkeyes were playing, then the date would eb a big deal.  Since they aren't and the game is actually looking to be a rather boring one, it won't be an issue.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-12-03 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Caucus Date Complicates Matters

It's not so much the date that complicating things, as the nature of the caucus itself.  If this was a primary election, people could vote absentee and none of these things would matter.

by aaronetc 2007-12-03 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Caucus Date Complicates Matters

I have posted this before, I work for University Housing at the University of Iowa, and this just isn't a big issue. We have had exactly 8 students request to stay on campus for the caucus, and they can go to Iowa House or off campus to any of the number of homes that the campaigns are setting up.

The campaigns are encouraging in-state students to caucus in their home precincts, to make the impact greater across the states.

by Greg The Wisconsin Democrat 2007-12-03 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Caucus Date Complicates Matters

Regardless, Most of the Chicago Land Iowa students are not that long of a drive from University of Iowa.  It's 4 hours or less from most of the Chicago land Area, which isn't that far of a drive.  Not sure what rules are, but if it is allowed, I could see Busses being provided or something like that... IF it is allowed.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-12-03 05:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Caucus Date Complicates Matters

Is it just me, or do these complications bode well for Edwards?  Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but he's got the strongest support among previous caucus goers, right?  I would assume that of all groups these folks would be least likely to stay home and most likely to change other plans for the caucus.

by B VT 2007-12-03 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Caucus Date Complicates Matters

Given the cluster fuck that the egos running the various states have made this primary season (and yes Iowa gets it share of the blame here), who knows at this point.  Its murky water until Jan 3.

by yitbos96bb 2007-12-03 05:24PM | 0 recs
we changed our travel plans

but we know of other families who either had non-refundable tickets or didn't change plans for other reasons.

I hate this schedule. Florida and Michigan have really messed things up.

by desmoinesdem 2007-12-03 06:59PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads


----------- myDD - skin -----------