http://www.mydd.com/comments/2007/12/28/ 134319/83/2#2

I made this prediction over a week ago, and since the Edwards baby daddy story never gained any traction I will stick by it.  

Edwards is moving up and so is Clinton.  It is a two person race and that is why Obama has looked so skiddish over the last two weeks.  He knows it.

If Edwards manages to win against these two, who have spent more than $100 Million between them, it will be huge.  In New Hampshire, the latest RCP average has Edwards at 17% and trending up.  If he gained a 10% bump, taking equally from both Clinton and Obama there, he will win New Hampshire too.

If he wins Iowa, expect the Culinary Workers to endorse him in Nevada.  From there the avalanche continues.

Desmoinedems whom I agree with on Iowa most of the time seems to be disregarding Obama's slipping in iowa.

if i am wrong i hope she corrects me.

THe dmr register endorsement was important for her because it helped crystallize the terms of her candidacy better than she has been doing.

Her movement is real and obama slipping a bit is also real . This has really little to do with the whole blumenthal theory . I think she is missing the train on this one.

All through the year I have felt she would come in third , edwards 1st , obama 2nd but i have grown more confident after the dmr register endorsement and the way she has refocused in iowa , hitting the rural areas etc . I am not yet at the point where i would say she would win but it is conceiveable. I saw a couple of the internals of these iowa polls and it seems she has had an uptick in second choice votes , this is where i think the dmr endorsement helped her or would help her

It's to be expected that Iowa, like Mississipppi, would break towards the white male candidate.

Hillary and Edwards are the only 2 candidates that would lose a general election race.  If Iowa picks one of those as their first choice, Iowa will once again LOSE the presidency for the democrats in 2008 just like they lost it when they chose Kerry & Gore.    Biden and Obama are the only 2 democrats that could actually win a general election race in 2008.

This is so much fun. It feels good when things are turning out the way you expected them to.

I stand by my word that this will be a Clinton vs. Edwards race in Iowa and I think Edwards will nudge Clinton out of the top stop. In NH Clinton will win as all the Independents will flock to the Republican race having seen Obama pretty much underperformed.

As a side note, for the Republican race, McCain will come in third in Iowa and win NH. I think he will be the nominee and go up against either Clinton or Edwards.

Since we are all making predictions- here's mine--
Edwards 35,

Clinton or Obama 25 to 23

I am making up numbers to make a larger point. Obama and Clinton will be a close second or third but I think Edwards will do extremely well. The only real issue to me at this point is the post narrative battle for NH.

It is incredibly dishonest of you to claim that Obama has peaked on the basis of exactly two polls, especially since the RCP 6-poll average -- which you put right next to those numbers -- completely contradicts that claim!

If you follow the RCP link you gave and look at how each of the candidates is doing, you'll notice that both Edwards and Obama are rising, while Clinton is the one who's falling.

Furthermore, following that RCP link, a new Strategic Vision poll shows Obama at 30, Clinton at 29, and Edwards at 28.

So the poll you mention here and the recent Strategic Vision poll have Obama and Edwards rising, and Clinton falling.

I don't know how you got those 6-poll average numbers, since they don't add up (perhaps they're trendline averages?), but at any rate, the RCP average is now Clinton 29.3 (30.66) - Obama 27.0 (26) - Edwards 27.3 (25.3) -- again, who's the one falling here?

Given that Obama and Edwards are neck and neck while Clinton is slightly ahead but slightly dropping, I think the results are going to hinge on the turnout on Jan 3 more than anything else, as has already been suggested.

Of course, the more I see comments like this ("My Candidate will win Iowa by a couple of points, therefore My Candidate is going to win the entire country now!"), the happier I'll be when Iowa's (and New Hampshire's) stranglehold on politic is broken.

Folks, calm down. Obama's base in Iowa is the better educated and wealthier liberals who are more likely to be on the road at Christmas (along with the students).

They will all be back on caucus night.

Wishful thinking by the Hillary supporters at MyDD. Anytime they include that ridiculous ARG poll in their calculations, you know they're STTRREETTCCCHHHHIIIINNNGGGG. The fact of the matter is that it is tied and no one is clearly ahead of the other. It's funny to watch people from NY, CA and everywhere BUT Iowa try to tell everyone how in tune they are with the populace.