I've link off of Soren Dayton's site once in a while to find out what the state of the race is for the Republicans. That said, when I ran into Soren in Las Vegas during the BlogWorldExpo in November, and told him that I though Huckabee could win their nomination, he was pretty skeptical, and instead felt pretty sure that Romney had the nomination in the bag.

I don't know that he's backing anyone, but EyeOn08.com is more friendly to McCain than any of the other candidates. And if McCain were to make some sort of comeback to win the nomination, it would shock the political world. Democrats believe, with good reason I think, that he's dead. But consider how many New Hampshire voters there are that backed McCain in 2000, his rise in the polls there, and that it wouldn't be out of character for Republicans to have their 'my turn' candidate established, then flirt around for a year, only to return to their first choice. But that would assume, as McCain obviously did, that McCain was being backed by BushCo.

However, after seeing the elder Bush's behind Romney during his 'war on secularism' speech, and remembering that Jeb is behind Romney, you get the feeling that McCain was supremely played by the Bush's and Rove in 2004, when he sold his support in exchange for being the perceived 'my turn' frontrunner.

And so, at the beginning of the year, we all watched as Giuliani took away the frontrunner position from McCain, while neocons waxed on, but now it's looking more and more like Giuliani's rise to the frontrunner position throughout much of 2007 was just a placeholder:

Everyone expected Romney to sweep the first few states. McCain was blowing off Iowa and awaiting in New Hampshire; Thompson was going to lay low and wait in South Carolina; Giuliani was going to wait in South Carolina.

The secret to Huckabee's rise is hugely a part of his background as a southern evangelical, and his getting ahold of a multi-million national email list of evangelicals certainly helped, as did some timely endorsements. But when you really think about it, the glaring opening that Huckabee moved through was that he was the only Republican that thought to challenge Romney at the very beginning. Instead of devising some sort of 'wait and see' strategy with a later state, Huckabee did Iowa.

Romney's campaign didn't see it coming. Or maybe they did and were just paralyzed, so now they are on the attack. Thompson's campaign is finally awake and are really going after Huckabee, and in Iowa. As for Giuliani and McCain's campaign, they are either still immobile to change or in denial. It might have been a stretch for me to claim at the beginning of the month that it was "Huckabee's race to lose" (and I still believe, and won't think otherwise until after Florida, that it's Clinton's nomination to lose either) but now it looks like Huckabee is ramping it up, and starting to move away.

However, someone is going to be last standing, maybe by getting 2nd place alot, and that person will be there challenging Huckabee for the nomination. Romney is not in that bad of a position, with him placing second, as that pushes the Giuliani/McCain/Thompson buses off the road. It looks like that will be Romney today, but I'm not all that sure about it. Mostly what I recognize is that he's got the backing of the establishment. I don't really think the BushCo world saw all that much difference between Giuliani/McCain/Thompson/Romney getting the nomination. But Huckabee is another matter. Huckabee talks about energy independence like he means it, with populism mixed in, and a real evangelical with some irrational beliefs. Huckabee, in signing on Ed Rollins today, took side with those Republicans that split from the Bush re-election in '92, a sign that it's quickly becoming Huckabee vs BushCo. I don't think it really matters all that much to them who the alternative is. Romney will do, which Soren won't care for much, but that's ok too.