Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

by Todd Beeton, Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 08:17:24 AM EST

The latest Rasmussen poll out of Iowa (1,106 LVs, Dec. 10, MOE +/- 3%) continues to show essentially a 3-way race, although with signs that Clinton may have halted Obama's insurgence in the state and the top two may be pulling away from Edwards, who is below Clinton outside of the MOE.

	Dec. 10	Nov. 26-27	RCP 5-poll Ave.
Clinton	29	27	27.4
Obama	26	25	28.4
Edwards	22	24	21.4
Richardson	7	10	7.2
Biden	5	4	4.8

Rasmussen's polling is helpful because it asks the questions that are more relevant to the Iowa caucuses and here again, as Chris Bowers has noted, there are essentially three leaders, depending on the question:

When only voters who are "certain" they will participate are included in the totals, Obama is supported by 27%, Clinton by 26%, and Edwards by 23%.
Among those who have participated in a caucus before, it's Edwards 25%, Clinton 25% and Obama 23%.
However, when only those who are certain which candidate they will support are included, it's Clinton 31%, Obama 25% and Edwards 21%.

But in a sign that Clinton's lead over Edwards may prove illusory, in the all important 2nd choice sweepstakes, Edwards leads Clinton 2-1.

John Edwards is currently the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 20%, while Clinton and Richardson are the second choice for 14%.

The importance of the 2nd choice numbers was made clear 4 years ago when the final Zogby tracking poll before Iowa had Dean gaining on Kerry:

Kerry 24.4%
Dean 23.1%
Gephardt 18.8%
Edwards 18.4%
"Kerry continues to poll strong. Dean seems to have bottomed out and move almost back to where he was," pollster John Zogby said."

But look at the 2nd choices:

Second choice:
Kerry: 26%
Edwards: 20%
Dean: 15%
Gephardt 15%

And we all know how that ended up:

Kerry: 38%
Edwards: 32%
Dean: 18%
Gephardt 11%

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic Primary, Iowa caucus (all tags)

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

Soooo the answer is NO.

by JoeCoaster 2007-12-12 08:26AM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

Considering all the crap Hillary has been subjected to over the past few weeks, most of it generated by the media, and considering the huge star power of Oprah, I'd say Hillary is doing extremely well. She is still seen as the leader when it comes to those specific important issues.

Go Hillary!

by Regan 2007-12-12 08:39AM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

So right now it looks like, if Hillary doesn't win big right away she could be in trouble.

by MNPundit 2007-12-12 08:50AM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

Meanwhile, in NH the gap has closed...

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/12/o bama.newhampshire/index.html

However, I still believe that a number of so-called Obama voters are just being politically correct and may not really vote for Obama..at least in Iowa.

by Boilermaker 2007-12-12 08:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

Wouldn't Iowa caucus-goers be more likely to maintain a politically correct position since they "vote" publicly? That is to say, if people are just saying they support Obama to impress others, then a public caucus would create a similar atmosphere wherein these PC people don't a private opportunity to retract their PC support.

Of course, I don't think that a significant number of people (if any) really indicate Obama support to phone pollsters in order that they might look better. Maybe I'm wrong, but that just seems like a rare kind of mentality.

by DPW 2007-12-12 10:42AM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

Of course the second choices of Edawrds, Obama and Clinton supporters are pretty much worthless...it would be nice if these polls broke down second choice by candidate, considering how important it is.

by animated 2007-12-12 08:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

yep - its going to come down to Biden/Richardson supporters.

THOSE second choice numbers are key. I think Edwards/Obama/Clinton wi.ll be viable in almost every district. And their second choices wont be factored in across the board.

by sepulvedaj3 2007-12-12 09:03AM | 0 recs

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not necessarily

I'm working on part 7 of my Iowa caucus diary series and have been going over this second-choice stuff again.

You have to remember that there will be hundreds of precincts in which one of the top-tier candidates is not viable. Apparently even Kerry was not viable in a couple hundred precincts in 2004.

There will also be hundreds of precincts in which either Biden or Richardson is viable.

by desmoinesdem 2007-12-12 10:32AM | 0 recs

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I worked the in eastern Iowa in 2004 for Kerry

We saw that Dean wasn't even viable in any of the caucuses in my area. So Dean and Gephardt went half Kerry, half Edwards.

But what interests me as a Clinton supporter is that are 14% each for Clinton and Richardson. Most places in Iowa, Richarddson is not going to survive the first round so where do the second place Richardson supporters go. Not it won't be 14% because some will get their first place, but some %age of the 14% will then go to her?

And interestingly enough other polls show her ahead in 2nd choices.

by debcoop 2007-12-12 09:19PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

post the stat vision poll that has Obama up 8

by nevadadem 2007-12-12 09:04AM | 0 recs

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WOW , INTERESTING!

I like the way beeton compared our current second choice with the 2004 second choice vote.

Edwards had about 20% second choice in 2004..Now he has aout 28%.

Obama is basically where Edwards was among second choice in 2004...

Hillary total amount to where Howard Dea was.

This could means that Obama and Edwards could surge upward ad leave Hillary completly behind.

The big question here is whether Edwards 28% of second choice is enough to win him the caucus.

Also , let me remind the Edwards supporters that i expect someone that's polling i the low 20's to be unviable in some precinct....Maybe he could be unviable is some urban precinct.

From what im hearing on the ground in Iowa , Edwards is strong in those western small towns of the state and weaker on the eastern part of Iowa where Obama runs extremely strong because of his the state of Illinois which is nearby.

If Edwards is indeed unviable where Obama is very strong , the fact that he's getting 28% of second choice , wont mean anything.

by Prodigy 2007-12-12 09:07AM | 0 recs

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Edwards will be viable in most precincts

I don't expect him to fall short of 15 percent in most of eastern Iowa.

by desmoinesdem 2007-12-12 10:34AM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

The conventional wisdom has been that there is only one ticket out of Iowa and that it will quickly shape up as either a Clinton sweep or a two-person race.

The polls on the front page make me think there is another possibility...Iowa goes Edwards/ Obama/ Clinton. Then, Obama wins New Hamphire thanks to his surge there, Edwards' relative weakness in NH, and the small time window. That could lead to a more open race than people expected.

by animated 2007-12-12 09:21AM | 0 recs

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that scenario seems quite likely to me

You are right, it would be fairly open at that point.

by desmoinesdem 2007-12-12 10:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Re-Asserting Herself In Iowa?

Todd,

I don't understand how you say that the top two might be pulling away, and then you go on to show evidence to the contrary. Edwards is doing very well among those that have previously caucused, and is winning among second choices. I'm not saying this guarnatees an Edwards victory, but it certainly doesn't show the other two pulling away.

by donati303 2007-12-12 09:25AM | 0 recs

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She scored an Iowa endorsement today as well

Charles City Mayor Jim Erb. Mayor Erb is on board endorsing Clinton.

by dpANDREWS 2007-12-12 09:36AM | 0 recs

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FYI Charles City is in Floyd County

which will contribute 15 state delegates (out of 2,500 total)

2004 results in Floyd County:
Kerry 35.3 percent, Edwards 31.8 percent, Gephardt 18.8 percent, Dean 14.1 percent

by desmoinesdem 2007-12-12 10:36AM | 0 recs

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Second choices

Weren't there two Iowa polls last week that said that there was a three way tie for second choices - which ones were they?

by NYMARJ 2007-12-12 09:47AM | 0 recs

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that debate will be important

but unless someone crashes and burns horribly, it won't be decisive either. Many undecideds will make up their minds in the final week.

It's pretty straightforward: Hillary can win Iowa if her campaign (assisted by EMILY's list and AFSCME) can turn out thousands of women supporters who have never caucused before. She's in trouble if she doesn't expand the pool of caucus-goers by much.

One edge she still has is a lead among Iowans over 65. I still think Obama will fall short of 15 percent in a significant number of precincts dominated by older voters.

by desmoinesdem 2007-12-12 10:39AM | 0 recs