I don't think the winner in Iowa wins New Hampshire.  Historically there seems to be a thing about New Hampshire and them running against the grain.

The tv godess operah has anointed obama as "the one." he must win now. he is tall, thin, rich and very pretty. only looks matter, substance is silly. Obama is cool.he is a movie star. the people of new hamshire must vote for him, and then they will be invited to a hollywoodland like party, where they can drink mojito's and be in with the goddess opera's in crowd. the godess o will give everyhone a gelato machine. obama is thinner than kucinich, clinton and the rest. We will all just get along and be happy under the rule of the god and godess oo.

Exactky! What is getting overlooked is that Edwards is showing upward movement in alle the recent NH polls too. In those two he is within 14 % of the frontrunner. Thats within striking distance if and when he wins Iowa.

14% is exactly the median bounce to expect, especially now that either Hillary or Obama have led every single Iowa polls for months. It will be spun as Edwards the comeback kid.

It all depends on Iowa now and NH will vote for the Iowa winner.

average in New Hampshire was Clinton 41, Obama 21.75.

The realclearpolitics average is now Clinon 30.8, Obama 27.  Obama had appeared to have stalled in the low 20's in NH - he has clearly moved above 25 and perhaps higher.  Edwards too has picked up enough support to be in range if he won Iowa.

I am shocked at how much this race has moved.  I think we may be seeing a bounce from Iowa to New Hampshire BEFORE Iowa actually has voted.  The same thing happened to a lesser extent in 2004, but this time it has happened earlier and faster.  Of course, you can argue these numbers will reverse should Hillary win Iowa.  

In the end this race is all about Iowa, and the news from there is at best uncertain.  

I have been saying this for 6 months: this race is very fluid and open and will likely turn on 5,000 caucus votes in Iowa.

spin much??

Where art thou?

:-)

Haven't you heard the news?  Obama is beating Hillary.  Is he like up everywhere.  Her campaign is in tatters and Barry is interviewing VP candidates as we speak!   Check with any pundit who is anybody and they will tell ya.

Blah, blah, blah.

I'm a Clinton supporter and I'm here to say, John Edwards will win Iowa, NOT Obama. Who comes in second will determine who wins New Hampshire. Clinton will win MI and FL and will likely win Super Tuesday.

To get the square of the MOE of the difference, you add the squares of the individual MOEs.  (It's a Pythagorean relationship, if that helps.  If it doesn't, forget that I mentioned it.)

If the individual MOEs are the same, you can shortcut that by multiplying by the square root of 2.

So a 5% MOE of both the individual polls is a 7.1% MOE of the difference.

Therefore Obama's jump from 22% to 30% in the CNN poll IS statistically significant at the 95% level, if the original MOEs were 95% MOEs.

Similarly, Hillary's 6-point drop in the Rasmussen poll, with its 3.5% MOEs, is statistically significant.

[This applies only to comparisons of estimates that aren't significantly correlated, by the way.  Comparing (positively or negatively) correlated estimates requires the use of a slightly more complicated formula, plus a decent estimate of the correlation coefficient.]

Feel free to run this by the guys at Pollster.com if you don't want to take my word for it.

A simple link from 2001
I just came across this...but I feel it is important to share.
It addresses where candidates stand now..where they stood...and where they will stand.

The question for Iowa...for all of us is simple.
....(note this does exclude Dennis because he is/has been always there)..Will my candidate will take on the puppet masters?

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/feature s/2001/0110.green.html

Does anyone know how delegates are apportioned in New Hampshire?  Is it winner take all?  By congressional district?  Proportionate to the popular vote?

Just wondering.  thanks