Robin wins 50% to 50%.

i think the race will be around 50-50 breaking for weirauch.  if you've read about latta's last couple days and the gop vibes on this race, youd be expecting them to lose here.  

So far she is outperforming her 2006 run in Ashland county by 3%. She won 45% in 2006.

We lose. Hurt by the pathetic congress. Learn the lesson here...

john green (wi). ok i'll bite what does wi stand for?

Ohio Secretary of State has us down 75 votes to 69 votes.  All we need is 7 more votes.  Yay us!

I know Obama's campaign was helping Robin.  Did any others do that as well?

I say we win with 52%.

IT UPDATED FINALLY!  We're up to about 3000 votes.  

Doing well.

Weirauch is outperforming 2006 performance in Seneca.

46% this time vs. 40% in 2004.

That could get us a victory if numbers stick like this tonight.

Robin is up 6% in Seneca from 2006!

if results continue to come in this slow then it's gonna be a long night.

Now way down with precincts reporting in Ashland -- 38% (compared to 42%+ in 2006) with 3.72% of overall precincts reporting... grrr

uhhh. she's down 7% from 06 in Ashland county.

she'll probably loss Ashland anyway since only Strickland was able to carry it with only 49%-48%

Why the slowness?!?! (Ben weeps softly)

as long as she can get around 45-49% in each county she loses then that would mean a victory for her.

ohh...we're down to 45%...

if we lose this race then I'm digging a hole and burying my head so i wouldn't have to hear the ridicules we'll get from the GOP.  

we're doing 2% worse in Crawford...damn!!!

Now matter what happens we got the NRCC to spend more that us in an 10 PVI district for the republicans. No shame in that.

10$ betting that we'll win this race, so we better win!

i know but i has just hoping on at least one victory tonight and if we can get a real progressive voice from a conservative district then we could do anything  

Shot, We have a 5% improvement in Sandusky and Seneca, which we need to match in Wood.

we really can't tell anything yet since only 25% of the votes have reported

and several of the counties that have reported are only partially reported

the turnout seems very low and not in our favor. doesn't look like we are going to win this won.

race is likely over, I'm sorry to say.

50.1 % = .45 * .33 + x * .66

x = .535

She needs 53.5 % of the remaining.

That's unlikely.

to win she'll have to win Huron Wood and Lucas

We can call this.

and several of the counties are only partially reported

and wood county has as many voters and 3 of the largest other counties that calculation doesn't work because all the precients don't have the same number of voters

what was the turnout in wood county?

unfortunately, it doesn't look like we win this ... the final result will be better than 2006 but still likely along the lines of 55R - 45D (unless a miracle happens in Wood or Lucas Co.)

nevertheless, it's still a win for us -- a 10 pt. margin in a district that went for Bush by 22 pts.

in the Massachusetts special, Ogonowski only got 45 % I think, and that district actually wasn't as Democratic as OH-5 is Republican.

AND the Repugs have spent 16% of their House money here !

We've lost:

With 67% of precincts in Wood County reporting...

ROBERT E. LATTA     REP     7390     54.62%
ROBIN WEIRAUCH     DEM     6102     45.10%

http://www.co.wood.oh.us/boe/Wood%20Coun ty%20Election%20Results.htm

yeah what the republicans fail to realize is that that district in massachusetts simply votes for the inc then when there is a no inc it goes back to it's voting pattern

Sigh.  Even without Wood and Huron county returns in yet, I'd say things look bad.  

According to Sean over at Swing State project, we needed to run even in Sandusky Co. and win Seneca 55 to 45.  They're both at about 46/53.  Unless RW had a huge turnout of base voters in Wood Co., I'd say we're sunk.  <sigh>

At least we made the NRCC spend big on this race.  Even so, that's cold comfort.

Ohio is a tough nut to crack, I guess. We've come surprisingly close in red districts a number of times (the one with Jean Schmidt, for example), but it's hard to get over the top. Even in the 2006 wave, we only picked up one seat, and that was the one held by the uber-corrupt Bob Ney, who waited until only a few days before the election to officially resign.

At least statewide races are looking better there...

a 30% turn out in wood co is 32k voters

Having been through this myself, I with to thank Robin and her supporters in Ohio for all they did to make this a race. We need more people like Robin to step up to the plate and work on making every Dem look forward to voting for their candidate instead of voting against someone.

What I can't understand is how badly we lost Wood County. Its now looking like RW will barely improve over last year.

where are you seeing returns for wood county they aren't reported yet by the state

the district must be impulsivly republican. They vote republican unless the republicans have done something really horrible

Just for some recent historical context, I think that its important for us to remember that, in the last seven years, there have been a sum total of 25 special elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, 3 of which have shifted from one party to the other - Randy Forbes (R) winning the Virginia 4th in 2001, and Dems Stephanie Herseth and Ben Chandler winning respectively in South Dakota and the Kentucky 6th in 2004.  (This assuming the GOP retains both seats tonight).  As has been said over and over and over, its all about the expectations game, and barring some REALLY extraordinary circumstances, we should not predict the results of these special elections to be so dramatically divergent from the disrict's regular voting patterns. Moreover, the results generally shouldn't be viewed in any context beyond district-wide politics, and the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates.

At this point, she must gain 55.9 % of remaining.  That means that for all remaining voters, observed probabilities must flip.  That's not gonna happen, unless the remaining are TOTALLY different than the votes now in.

Fat lady is now warming up...

With 74 % in, Latta is running away.  For Weinrech to win, she needs 64.6 % of all remaining votes.  That is not going to happen.  She is current not breaking 45 %.

Latta should call it.  

he's trying to avoid looking like a fool if for some reason there is a large turn out in the last 4 counties

She has improved the election results reporting immeasurably over the crappy out-of-date website they had during Ken Blackwell's tenure.

does ohio still have the ACT distortion problem?

How could the polls have been so off? Weirauch w/ a 4-pt lead just last week, and now down by 12 points? WTF?

OK folks. You know what this means: we have lots of work ahead of us if we are going to win in 2008. And not just mobilizing our forces -- we have to persuade a lot of people to our side. And for 2012, we need some good redistricting, so that means we need to change the state legislature in 2008 too.

Some quick mourning, then back to organizing!

they polled the wrong people