NJ-03, WY-AL: 2 More GOP Retirements

by Todd Beeton, Fri Nov 09, 2007 at 09:39:53 AM EST

Per Chris Cillizza, Rep. Jim Saxton, who represents NJ-03 (PVI of D+3) and was widely expected to retire after his current term, may announce as soon as today that he won't seek re-election to the House.

Rep. Jim Saxton, the twelve-term Republican from New Jersey's 3rd District, plans to retire after his current term, an announcement that could come as early as today, according to sources familiar with his decision.

Saxton's retirement opens up a seat he has held since 1984 and creates another vulnerable open seat for House Republicans. President Bush narrowly carried the district with 51 percent in 2004, and Democrats had been making noise about a potential challenge to Saxton in 2008.

Charlie Cook has featured this race in his House Competitive Race Chart but labeled it as "Likely Republican." Expect that to change to "Toss-up" or even "Lean Dem" now that it's an open seat. Swing State Project says NJ state senator John Adler is our man for the job.

The second retirement that was leaked today is that of Rep. Barbara Cubin who's held Wyoming's At-Large seat since 1994.

From Roll Call:

Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-Wyo.) is expected to announce her retirement on Saturday at a meeting of the state GOP central committee in Casper, a Republican source said Friday afternoon. [...]

Cubin, long rumored to be retiring from her Republican-leaning at-large House seat upon the conclusion of her current term, has been absent from Capitol Hill for much of the year to tend to her
hospitalized husband in Wyoming.

While not surprising, Cubin's retirement, unlike that of Saxton, is bad news for Democrats. Our returning challenger to the seat, netroots all star Gary Trauner, had come just 1,000 votes shy in 2006 against Cubin in this R+19 PVI state and by far his best chance to win the seat would have been a rematch in 2008. Best not to underestimate Trauner though. The GOP primary promises to be a brutal one, with three challengers having already announced, almost 48% of the state has already voted for Trauner and mcjoan calls him

the most amazing door-to-door campaigner I have ever seen.

These two retirements make it 16 open seats for the GOP to defend next year, while Democrats only have 3.

Tags: Barbara Cubin, Gary Trauner, jim saxton, NJ-03, WY-AL (all tags)

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8 Comments

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Trauner

Seems like a nice guy-I wish he could have stuck it to Cubin this time around.  It LOOKS like he will have to run another stellar campaign and hope that Wyoming voters are looking for a fresh start from the GOP rather than from Cubin.

by Zeitgeist9000 2007-11-09 09:52AM | 0 recs
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Re: Trauner

I'm not sure Trauner could beat Cubin anyway. Remember, while WY may be close in down-ballot contests, there's still no way it's going to vote a Democrat for President. Next year is a presidential year, and having a Repbulican on the top of the ticket will be a strong draw for GOP GOTV. Trauner could probably win in 2010, but no 2008. ID-01 faces the same problem.

by Nathan Empsall 2007-11-09 11:18AM | 0 recs
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John Vinich

came within 1000 votes of beating Malcolm Wallop here in 1988 and this was while Bush was beating Dukakis 61%-38%.  Trauner has a chance.  

by Toddwell 2007-11-09 11:51AM | 0 recs
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Re: John Vinich

How have the politics in Wyoming changed between 1988 and 2007? Is it the same environment? (I'll trust whatever you tell me, thanks)

by Nathan Empsall 2007-11-10 01:14PM | 0 recs
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NJ-03 is unlikely to become "lean Dem".

It'll be a stretch to get it to toss-up.  Adler's basically the best possible recruit in the district (already has a federal warchest; beat a Republican incumbent to first gain his Senate seat in 1991, a year Republicans gained a veto-proof majority in both houses of the legislature due to the Florio tax increases; has a large donor base due to his close ties to the Camden County Democratic Organization, probably the most powerful organization in the state), and against Saxton he may have been able to pull off a miracle by attacking Saxton's federal record.

With Saxton's retirement, Adler will be facing a new challenger, without a federal record to attack.  It'll probably be State Sen. Diane Allen (R-Burlington); Allen makes this race extremely difficult to pick up.  First, she represents a Democratic (or Democratic-leaning swinging, if you want to be charitable) district in SD-07, a district that is the heart of the Burlington portion of NJ-03.  Ocean, the other major county, is reliably Republican; the only town from Camden is Cherry Hill, Adler's hometown.  Comparing this district to the district Gore shellacked Bush in is fallacious; there was an incumbent protection gerrymander in 2002, and the district is significantly more Republican (most of the Camden portion was moved to NJ-01).  Adler's connections to the CCDO could prove a liability (though it didn't hurt the victorious Democratic candidates in SD-01, Cape May County, and SD-02, Atlantic County, who both captured seats from Republican incumbents last Tuesday).  And, most importantly, Allen is perceived as a moderate; she was a well-known Philadelphia newscaster prior to her successful run for state senate.

For Adler to win, Democrats need to prevent Allen from gaining the Republican nomination.  Getting the Club for Growth involved would be critical in winning this seat; Allen, within her party, is widely considered a RINO, and recently locked heads with the chairman of the Burlington County Republican Organization.  A CfG-endorsed candidate with the tacit or overt blessing of the BCRO, maybe from Ocean, could win a what would be a brutal primary, while Adler coasts and the DCCC brutalizes both sides with ad-buys.  Adler versus a bruised conservative (or even victorious, but wounded, Allen) could definitely win that district in a presidential year.  Otherwise, I think we're in trouble.

by sucopsucoh 2007-11-09 10:44AM | 0 recs
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Re: NJ-03


Nonetheless, it's a 51% Bush district in 2004.  On partisan trend it should be down to 47-48% generic Republican voting.  I guess you're saying it will be difficult to achieve the necessary contrast, but I'm not sure.

It seems basically the same story line as with Ramstad and Weller and Pryce- their districts do lean slightly Democratic on trend in '08, and they're not sufficiently energetic partisans anymore to want to suffer the decline and full Southernification of their caucus during the Boehner/McHenry years.

I'm hoping Chris Shays, Peter King, Joe Knollenberg, Elton Gallegley, and David Dryer, and maybe a few others (Rohrabacher?) hang it up too.  Not that I'm holding my breath, but their districts are getting too Blue for them to hang on more than another election or so.

by killjoy 2007-11-09 12:56PM | 0 recs
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Re: NJ-03

You make fair points, and I don't know enough about those other districts to state one way or another about their potential for switching.  I do know that many blogs I respect are being unrealistic about the potential for NJ-03 to switch.  If any of those districts have a Republican challenger who represents the most Democratic part of the district and who recently won re-election by nearly double-digits and who is perceived with the district as an independent moderate, they'll be similarly difficult to win, regardless of the national mood.  The Burlington and Ocean Republican organizations are two of the last well-oiled Republican machines in the state, and they're not likely to let the seat fall to a Camden County Democrat.

by sucopsucoh 2007-11-09 07:08PM | 0 recs
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Re: NJ-03, WY-AL: 2 More GOP Retirements

Just think. It's early. I fully expect that at the end of the year just before primary season (whenever that starts) we will see a last-minute flood of retirements because the RNCC has made it clear it can't help you if your seat becomes competitive. Probably all of the  really endangered ones will leave, and a lot of the ones who aren't feeling well, or have hidden scandals or what not will, too.

In any event, this will make Congress an even more uphill battle for the Republicans, because extra money will need to go to the Senate races and the Presidential race will really suck up a lot of the money as well.

by NewDeal 2007-11-09 04:06PM | 0 recs

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