Ambinder: Two New Polls Show Race Tightening in NH

Marc Ambinder:

Two new reputable polls of New Hampshire Democratic Primary voters will show statistically significant drops in support for frontrtunner Hillary Clinton, Democrats who have seen those polls said today.

The polls will be released this weekend and are embargoed; though I'm not privy to the embargo agreement, I'll be a little vague out of respect for the polling organizations.

One of the polls shows that the gap between Clinton and Barack Obama narrowed by more than 10 points. Her biggest decline was seen among older voters.

The other shows Clinton's lead over Obama reduced by approximately 9 points.
John Edwards remains at about 15 percent in both.

The argument has been made by some that Obama's decision to hit Clinton for not addressing the supposed "crisis" in Social Security has been the key factor in moving the numbers in New Hampshire. To this end, folks have noted that Clinton's support among older voters in New Hampshire has fallen more than her support within other groups.

Whether or not this is the case, I still believe this strategy to be a poor one for a couple of reasons. For one, it is blatantly disengenuous -- clearly there is no crisis -- and as such it undercuts one of the central themes of the Obama candidacy, namely truthfulness. But more importantly this strategy also plays directly into the hands of those who would seek to partially privatize or even completely privatize the Social Security program.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see the actual data over the weekend.

Tags: 2008, Democratic primaries, New Hampshire, New Hampshire primary (all tags)

Comments

12 Comments

Re: Ambinder: Two New Polls Show Race ..
Jonathan:
Yes, Obama picked the wrong subject, but he is doing what Cameron did to Brown over in the UK.  Pick a topic out of nowhere and hit the front runner with it.  Brown suffered a big drop on polls in a short time.  In fact, it caused Brown to scrap holding snap elections.
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2007-11-09 01:12PM | 0 recs
If Obama's support is flat ...

And the undecided numbers are what creep, or even if Edwards creeps up in third, but Obama is flat then I say no big deal.

You can't expect Clinton to run away forever.  Races tend to tighten at some point.

I think we may be seeing a point 2 months out where voters say okay Hillary convince me.  That is what she has to do.

If on the other hand Obama is moving up big, as in he is gaining 8, 9, 10% then I will say there may be a fundamental shift occuring.

by dpANDREWS 2007-11-09 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Ambinder

Fred Thompson gave a speech today full of fear about Social Security on the brink of collapse. His solution: but benefits and privatize.

Clinton talks about the danger of Democrats parroting Republican talking points on SS in her podcast interview with Time Magazine, here:

http://www.sonibyte.com/audio/4940.final

by hwc 2007-11-09 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Ambinder

Great minds...

by Jonathan Singer 2007-11-09 01:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Ambinder

More like bait and switch.

by bruh21 2007-11-09 01:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Ambinder

Blame it on small liberal arts colleges.

by hwc 2007-11-09 03:01PM | 0 recs
One more point...

For those who believe that the Republicans have given up on trying to gut Social Security, or that they have forsaken their tactic of proclaiming that the sky is falling, think again.

Calling the current social security system "unsustainable" and "draconian cuts" in benefits inevitable, today Thompson announced his "plan to save social security." Continuing with the themes he has been trumpeting on the campaign trail, the Thompson plan calls for optional private social security accounts and the indexing of social security benefits to inflation rather than wages.

From the looks of it, Thompson isn't the only Republican presidential candidate calling for privatization, either. This stuff does matter.

by Jonathan Singer 2007-11-09 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: One more point...

What did they get in 2005 for raising privatization?

by bruh21 2007-11-09 01:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Ambinder: Two New Polls Show Race Tightening i

So now Obama is scaring seniors about social secutiry talking about a crisis - some new kind of politician.  But it is bipartisan - that's true.  Obviously this really angers me - why couldn't he find other issues with which to distinguish himself from Hillary - ones that do not harm the Democratic label and maybe social security itself.

by NYMARJ 2007-11-09 03:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Ambinder: Two New Polls Show Race Tightening i

"clearly there is no crisis"??? There is an enormous funding shortfall crisis looming in the next few decades, and it's time that progressives address it. If we don't recognize the problem, conservatives will eventually gain the upper hand on this issue. Obama's statement is a perfect example of what he does best: being honest and frank about issues that matter.

by blueflame 2007-11-09 03:48PM | 0 recs
Marist poll

Here's a link to the new Marist Poll:

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/NH/NHPZ 0711.htm

I'm glad to see Obama and Edwards finally making a horserace of it. It's like a good close football game. The fans on edges of the seats. The band is playing. Electricity is in the air. Let's strap 'em on and play the second half!

by hwc 2007-11-09 07:10PM | 0 recs
One of them is a UNH poll

that will be in the globe this Sunday.

by fladem 2007-11-10 01:14AM | 0 recs

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