NM-Sen: Tom Udall Would Smash Either Wilson or Pearce

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Nov 08, 2007 at 08:21:23 AM EST

Markos has released the results of polling out of the New Mexico Senate race he commissioned from non-partisan pollster Research 2000. Lo and behold, Tom Udall, who has been subject to a robust draft effort, is by far the strongest Democrat looking at this open seat race.

R/DUdallChavezDenish
Wilson38/5545/4244/43
Pearce37/5440/3939/45

The poll was in the field Monday through Wednesday, with 600 likely voters interviewed for a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among those polled, Udall's favorability spread of 51 percent positive and 28 percent negative was the best, and Udall's strong favorable rating of 15 percent was also higher than that of any of the other four New Mexico politicians polled.

With Udall seemingly the strongest candidate -- and a strong progressive, to boot -- and Marty Chavez already going negative even before Udall jumps in the race (he's still considering a bid), the time is right to head over to DraftUdall.com or the Draft Udall Act Blue page to show your support for the Congressman and to let him know you want him to run.

Tags: Draft Udall, New Mexico, NM-Sen, Senate 2008, Tom Udall (all tags)

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8 Comments

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Tom Udall

God, I hope Udall runs. This is a must win seat for us. It looks good for VA, we have a chance in NH, if Udall runs, we're good for NM. Most likely three pickups and maybe more in CO and MN.

I worry about LA though.

by RJEvans 2007-11-08 08:46AM | 0 recs
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Re: Tom Udall

LA will be very difficult to hold if John Kennedy runs against Mary Landrieu.

Here's my prediction:

Tier 1 (Likely Takeover):
Virginia
New Hampshire
Colorado

Tier 2 (Toss Up):
New Mexico
Kentucky
Minnesota
Oregon
Maine

Tier 3 (Upset Possible):
Alaska
Mississippi
North Carolina
Kansas

The Tier 3 races could all move up with the right candidate.  If Cochran retires in MS, and Mike Moore runs, it would be a Tier 2 race at least.  If John Edwards stumbles in Iowa, I'd like to see him shift his focus to Dole and NC would become a Tier 1 race.  If Sebelius considers taking on Pat Roberts, KS could be a toss-up.  If Begich runs in Alaska, that could become a toss-up if not a Tier 1 race.  

That's 12 potential pickups for Dems if this is another wave election, with the possibility of losses in LA and SD, that's still a 10-seat pickup under good circumstances.  A Veto-proof majority, a firewall against a potential Republican president.

Getting Udall in the NM race is more important than ever.

by Vox Populi 2007-11-08 09:07AM | 0 recs
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Re: Tom Udall

Very optimistic. I really don't see us picking up more than 5-6 seats.

I think Virginia, Colorada, New Hampshire and New Mexico (if Udall runs) are likely pickups.

Maine and Oregon will be harder. We also have a very good chance in Minnesota.

I could live with a 54-44-2 Senate.

by RJEvans 2007-11-08 09:44AM | 0 recs
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Re: Tom Udall

Bush's veto of the water projects bill was a gift to Democrats.  I hope Landrieu runs with that one.

by Steve M 2007-11-08 09:51AM | 0 recs
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John Kennedy

Is he really that strong?  He's been in five statewide races, of which, TWO were unopposed.  of the three races where he actually faced an opponent (2004 sen and 1991 attorney General) he's only won one.  the majority of his campaign experience is in losing, plus his 15% in 2004 shows he doesn't ahve much of a base.

by Doug Tuttle 2007-11-08 10:05AM | 0 recs
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Re: John Kennedy

This time he will have the united support of Republicans and the crossover Dems.

by Vox Populi 2007-11-08 07:45PM | 0 recs
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Re: NM-Sen: Tom Udall Would Smash Wilson or Pearce

NM is a likely takeover if Udall runs.  I think he will.  He just wants to make sure Albuquerque Democrats will support him over the corrupt, repugnant Marty Chavez, which we will.  Statewide Dems are not even an issue.  MayorMarty@Thief.com has a formidable patronage machine, but most of his voter base are Repugs.  Tom Udall will beat the crap out of the SOB in the primary.  Count on it.

Run Tom, Run!

by NM Ward Chair 2007-11-08 06:22PM | 0 recs
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Re: NM-Sen: Tom Udall Would Smash Either Wilson or

Dems should win VA, NH, NM (with Udall) and CO. MN is the next most likely then OR, KY, TX, ME and NC. AK is possible with Begich and MS with Mike Moore if Cochran pulls the plug. Current projection = 5-7 seat D gain.

by conspiracy 2007-11-09 04:39AM | 0 recs

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