KY-Gov, KY-Sen: Republican Woes in the Bluegrass State
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Nov 05, 2007 at 09:59:53 AM EST
Rasmussen Reports has some new numbers up out of Kentucky (Governor numbers; Senate numbers). While they look similar to the polling conducted on the Governor race recently by Research 2000, the numbers on the Senate race look quite different, with state Auditor Crit Luallen trailing by 10 points rather than 5 points (though Greg Stumbo's 7-point deficit is close to his 9-point deficit in the earlier poll). Anyway, here are the numbers:
Senate Race
McConnell 48
Stumbo 41McConnell 49
Luallen 39
Governor's Race
| (R) | (D) | |
|---|---|---|
| Fletcher/ Rudolph | Beshear/ Mongiardo | |
| Rasmussen Reports 11/1 | 39 | 54 |
| SurveyUSA 10/27-29 | 36 | 60 |
| Bluegrass Poll 10/26-29 | 33 | 56 |
| Research 2000 10/22-24 | 40 | 55 |
| SurveyUSA 10/19-21 | 38 | 58 |
| SurveyUSA 10/10 | 40 | 56 |
| 1-Month Average 10/10-11/1 | 37.7 | 56.5 |
| 7-Month Average 5/23-11/1 | 36.6 | 54.6 |
Earlier polls below the fold...
Kentucky seems to be undergoing some real shifts. In 2003 Ernie Fletcher won election quite handily over Ben Chandler, who was viewed as a strong Democratic candidate, in what was expected to be a closer race. In 2004, however, even as George W. Bush upped his share of the state's vote from 2000, Kentucky hosted what turned out to be one of the closest Senate elections in the country as Republican Senator Jim Bunning won reelection by the skin of his teeth. Likewise in 2006 the Democrats won a closely fought campaign in the state's third district, knocking off a longtime Republican incumbent in what had been viewed as a swing portion of the state. Now polling indicates that Democrat Steve Beshear is likely to become the next Governor of Kentucky following tomorrow's election and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is not at all immune to a challenge next fall. No doubt Kentucky still has a reddish tint to it -- but it's certainly not a purely Republican state these days, either.
| (R) | (D) | |
|---|---|---|
| Fletcher/ Rudolph | Beshear/ Mongiardo | |
| Insider Advantage (.doc) 9/24-25 | 35 | 45 |
| Bluegrass Poll 9/13-18 | 35 | 55 |
| Research 2000 9/10-13 | 39 | 56 |
| SurveyUSA 9/8-10 | 39 | 58 |
| SurveyUSA 8/4-6 | 37 | 58 |
| Lane Report 7/25-8/2 | 31 | 49 |
| SurveyUSA 7/14-16 | 36 | 59 |
| Insider Advantage 7/8-9 | 38 | 41 |
| Rasmussen Reports 5/24-25 | 35 | 51 |
| SurveyUSA 5/23-24 | 34 | 62 |









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