I believe that they are many "new voters' that will come out for Obama.

I will say that Obama has a "2-3% hidden voter" because he's the oly guy that has a huge University presence and those kids have cellphones , not landlines.

Rasmussen polled the "second choices" badly.....Seemed like they asked everyone who were their second choices instead of asking for supporters of candidates not expected to pass the 15% treshold.

Richardson is the big prize here.

Some Hillary supporters have stupidly suggested that Richardson second choice is Hillary , but i've never seen the seocnd choice get polled and have Hillary finish in first or second place...She's always in third place.

This means that the thought of Richardson ordering his supporters to caucus for Hillary , is just a wet dream by the Hillary supporters.

Keep dreaming rssrai.

"If there's something worth mentioning from this poll, in particular, it's that Edwards may have arrested his fall in Iowa. "

I disagree.  I think it shows there never was a fall.  He's held steady all along.  The others just advertised like crazy and brought over some undecideds to their columns.

John Edwards's support in Iowa is rock solid.  Now that he's on the air there, he'll start pulling his own share of undecideds his way.

We're going to shock the world.  I can't wait to see the talking heads have to actually say "In a race widely portrayed as a two-person showdown between Senators Clinton and Obama, former Senator John Edwards has roared back with a convincing win in Iowa.  Joe, does this mean Hillary is finished?"

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/11/29/120 20/978#commenttop

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/apps /pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071123/OPINION0 101/711210384/1012/OPINION

Sorry, chump.  Like usual, your opinion do not mesh with reality:

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/ news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id= 1003678452&imw=Y

NEW YORK If Hillary Clinton -- or, for matter, Jeb Bush -- is elected president next year and serves two terms in office, that would mean a Bush or a Clinton would have held the White House for a whopping 28 years. And to think many once worried about a "Kennedy Dynasty." Yet a new Gallup poll find that most Americans are not concerned about that.

The poll founds that 54% declared that this new dynasty "would not make much difference."

The basic structure that led to Edwards' 2nd in 2004 remained. What's critical is the unique 2nd choice aspect. Clinton supporters are likely to have Biden/Richardson as a second choice. Supporters of Biden/Richardson are likely to have Clinton as second choice.
The rest of the candidates will have supporters who will NOT have Clinton as second choice.
Obama will have a passionate commitment from his younger supporters(rightly so) in response to todays' front page slime in WAPO...However, all Iowa Colleges and Universities will be on break and that will be a factor.

My communication with friends in Iowa lead me to believe that the Edwards campaign is exactly where he wanted to be at this time.
Obama support is not in rural Iowa.
Clinton support is not in rural Iowa.

January 3rd on a Robert Frost night in Iowa...
who will show up?

Hillary and her supporters are just beginning the real fight.  Since all the candidates on both sides and the media have been throwing it at her hard and she hasn't imploded, you know her campaign has some intense basic strength.  
Today, Bobby Kennedy Jr, perhaps 2nd only to Al Gore in the world of environmental policy, has endorsed Hillary Clinton and will campaign in Iowa- Just the beginning- Oprah's celebrity endorsement pales when compared to endorsements of substance.  

If there's something worth mentioning from this poll, in particular, it's that Edwards may have arrested his fall in Iowa.

I've followed every Iowa poll since February. There has never been a single poll that suggests enough movement in the state to qualify as a "fall" or a "rise". The media and the bloggers who suggest otherwise are just fooling themselves when the polling has consistently shown three candidates all bouncing around in the 20s.

The Iowa caucus is like the crazy uncle nobody wants to be around but who has to be dragged out for the holidays once every four years. Trying to predict what the crazy uncle (or Iowa) will do based on a few points difference in poll samples is absurd.

By custom, the media should be writing this morning that the Rasmussen poll shows Clinton "surging back" into the lead. But, of course, that would be absurd.

I can't wait until these caucuses actually happen. I've never even been to Iowa and I'm sick of it. Rememember that this was supposed to be the year Iowa wasn't going to matter any more. Here's my election prediction...come January all the candidates will be surging their ass of out of there.

Concidering different polls use different methedoligies of likely voters and ask question differently, that range is remarkably consistant. If she stays in there she'll be in good shape, if not to win than to come a close second. The highest she scored in any Iowa poll this year was 33%, so i don't think the tailspin mantra holds water. It was always her worst state.

That's why he's going to win going away.

When the media have to explain why a 3-way tie turned into an easy Edwards' victory, they're going to have to admit it was because Edwards was able to close the sale in rural America.

Who do Richardson's supporters go to? That has to be key.

there are substantive arguments and good news here for your candidate. Your demagoguing takes away from it.

Too bad it's not a real primary.

It would be fun to see which way the voters broke in the last few days.

Caucuses are undemocratic.