MO-Pres: Democrats Lead in Every Potential Matchup

Only once during the 20th century -- 1956 -- did a Republican win the White House without carrying the state of Missouri. So is it problematic, then, that the three leading Democratic presidential candidates lead in every potential matchup against the four leading Republican presidential candidates in the Show Me state? Take a look at the latest numbers from Research 2000:

R/DClintonObamaEdwardsGiuliani39/4742/4640/47Romney38/4738/4638/47Thompson38/4638/4737/47McCain41/4640/4641/46

On average, the Democratic candidates lead the Republican candidates 46.5 percent to 39.2 percent in Missouri. On the basis of these numbers I wouldn't mark the state down in the Democrats' column just yet. Note for instance that John Kerry got about 46 percent of Missouri's vote in 2004 and that Al Gore got about 47 percent in the state in 2000 -- and neither of them carried the state.

That said, George W. Bush got 51 percent of Missouri's vote in 2000 and 53 percent in 2004, a significantly higher share than the Republicans' current showing in the low 40s, indicating that the Republicans have a lot of ground to recover before they are able to carry this state. And though I wouldn't use history to suggest that the GOP needs Missouri's support in order to win the White House, the electoral vote math gets really difficult for the party if it can't win Missouri -- particularly if states like Virginia, Arkansas and Ohio start going Democratic, as polling indicates they might.

Tags: 2008 general, Missouri, MO-Pres (all tags)

Comments

4 Comments

Re: MO-Pres: Democrats Lead in Every Potential Mat

Hey I remember earlier on in the year some were swearing that there was no way Clinton would win the show me state .

This poll actually shows her doing the best despite her favorable ratings.

If she is the nominee I predict she wins close to 330 electoral votes.

Don't quote me on that lol.

by lori 2007-11-19 08:06AM | 0 recs
Re: MO-Pres: Democrats Lead in Every Potential Mat

330 could be Kerry states + Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Arkansas (6), Nevada (5), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Virginia (13), Florida (27)

My guess is 351, Kerry states + NV, NM, WV, VA, OH, FL, IA, MO, AR -- can't wait! :D

by frankies 2007-11-19 08:56AM | 0 recs
300+

I think any Democrat can win this election with over 300 electoral votes. Under perfect condition, maybe we could push 400. Still, it is a long way off and anything could happen. We need to ensure that DEMOCRATS win.

by RJEvans 2007-11-19 09:54AM | 0 recs
Re: MO-Pres: Democrats Lead in Every Potential Mat

I like to look at America as a suffering patient, where Hillary is the doctor. What we need here is some good medicine.

http://www.voteforhillaryonline.com

by voteforhillaryonline 2007-11-19 08:45PM | 0 recs

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