Iowa/NH polls
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Nov 13, 2007 at 03:48:22 PM EST
CBS/NYT's has a poll out of Iowa and New Hampshire, here's the story, here's the poll (pdf), thanks to Pollster.com.
Let me first comment on the Republicans:
Iowa New Hampshire Romney 27 34 Huckabee 21 6 Giuliani 15 16 McCain 4 16 Thompson 9 6 Paul 4 8 Other/undecided 19 14Huckabee has got the momentum going on in Iowa. Romney has maybe peaked to soon, and Romney's hard support (37%) is softer than Huckabee's (50%) too. I attended the BlogWorldExpo last weekend and got the chance to talk with some conservatives there about how they saw the GOP racing shaking out. One interesting tidbit was this: Given if Romney won Iowa he'd win New Hampshire and be halfway to the nomination, that the other candidates (like Giuliani, McCain, maybe even Thompson) would be encouraging their supporters to vote for Huckabee to derail Romney. This is borne out by the poll showing Huckabee in a tie for the lead of 2nd choice; but it's also interesting to note the fluidity between supporters of Romney and Huckabee. There's also a rumor going around that James Dobson is going to endorse Huckabee.
The other Republican thing to note is that Ron Paul is starting to show traction in New Hampshire. My guess is that if he's polling 8% that he's probably got double that support, or more, in the booth. Wouldn't it be something if, for the Republicans, the story out of Iowa and New Hampshire is Huckabee and Paul, instead of a sweep by Romney? Either way, Giuliani and McCain are left hold an empty bag, and Thompson will have his back to the wall in South Carolina. Well, not entirely, someone will be placing in the top three among those front-runners, and it certainly could be Giuliani.
On to the Dems:
Iowa New Hampshire Clinton 25 37 Edwards 23 9 Obama 22 22 Richardson 12 6 Biden 4 2 Dodd 1 1 Kucinich 1 5 Undecided 12 18If that's the state of the race in Iowa, then we need to look at the undecideds and second choices. What jumps out with Clinton is her low favorable rating (59%) among Iowa Democrats. It's on par with Richardson (57%) but much lower than Obama (72%) or Edwards (73%)-- that's going to carry over in the caucus rounds.
It's also obvious that Obama is tremendously banking on new voters to win Iowa:
First-time Regulars Obama 29 19 Clinton 28 24 Edwards 16 26Obama could win if younger voters (below 45) that have Independent leanings show up at the Democratic caucus in percentages greater than 10% of the total voter, but nobody that follows Iowa caucuses believes that will happen, hence the skepticism of his strength in Iowa. Fortunately for us, the Iowa part of the poll looks at the second choices of Richardson/Biden/Dodd. As assumed by the above number showing a low overall favorable rating for Clinton, it's breaking away from Clinton:
Second choice among candidate choices with less than 15% support: Edwards 30% Obama 27 Clinton 14That's not a good sign for Clinton in Iowa. Richardson might hold a lot of sway were he to drop out and endorse someone, or indicate, as Kucinich did in '04 for Edwards, whom his supporters should go to for their second choice.
In New Hampshire, Clinton is on much more solid ground:
Hillary Clinton has a 15 point lead over her closest rival for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire Barack Obama and she is the first choice of both men and women, voters of all income and education levels, both Democrats and Independents voting in the primary, and liberals as well as moderates.The poll finds half of her support is willing to change their minds though. I find it amazing that 68% of those polled say Clinton's chances of winning are the best among the top three candidates. That also points toward the silver bullet. If Clinton loses Iowa to either Obama or Edwards, it will take away her perceived electability.The favorable ratings are stronger for Clinton (62%)in New Hampshire than Iowa, while weaker for Edwards (46%) and about equally strong for Obama (61%). New Hapnshire is Clinton's to lose, but Iowa is truly deadlocked.
Onto the big picture. It's a sign of strength that Obama's numbers are pretty solid all around; it seems he's been at the 20's pretty much the entire year. Everyone keeps waiting to see if/when he's going to move, and though it's not happened, he's not faded away either. Clinton appears to be in a very strong 'holding pattern' and this is the first poll in a while that seems to shake the perception that she's pulling away. Edwards is on the rebound, probably due to the fact of Gore now being out of the race. His Rasmussen daily numbers have shown momentum of late, and this poll is going to provide him needed momentum. It's at least looking like it might be a close race for the Democratic nomination.
Update [2007-11-13 21:20:1 by Todd Beeton]: Just to add a few thoughts on the Iowa poll, I see a lot of good news for Edwards. This is the place Edwards has spent the most time, obviously, and there's a lot of evidence that he has succeeded in getting his message out.
Among those who support Edwards, the reasons for their support are as follows:
Honesty 17%
Cares about people 12%
Agrees on Issues 12%
Healthcare 9%
And on the question "Who understands the problems of Iowans?" the results are:
Edwards 32%
Clinton 18%
Obama 18%
With the economy tanking and the wrong track numbers as high as they are nationwide, I feel like this question is going to be key in 2008.
Also, among those who want troops out of Iraq in less than a year:
Edwards 28%
Clinton 25%
Obama 17%
In addition, on the crucial second choice question, Edwards leads, albeit ever so slightly, among supporters of those candidates likely to garner less than 15%.
Edwards 30%
Obama 27
Clinton 14
Edwards's strong support among previous caucus goers may also pay dividends for him, as they are far m ore likely to actually attend the caucus than first-time caucus goers, who favor Obama.
The findings indicate that if older and established voters dominate turnout, the caucuses could be a two-way contest between Clinton and Edwards. If the Obama campaign succeeds in its bid to bring young voters and first-time caucus-goers out on Jan. 3, however, it could leave Iowa with a win and a crucial momentum boost headed into later contests. Doing so will be a challenge: Only a third of possible first-time attendees say they will "definitely" attend the caucuses, compared with six in 10 of previous attendees.
Tags: 2008 election, Democratic primaries (all tags)
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