Clinton Leads by 7 Points in New SC Primary Poll

The Southern Political Report is out with its latest polling out of South Carolina, and though the write up of the survey contains scant details of the data, here's what we have.

In South Carolina - which Obama has indicated will be critical to his campaign - Clinton leads with 35 percent of likely Democratic primary voters. That's down from the 43 percent she polled in a late July poll, but Obama's 28 percent is nearly identical to what he got in the July poll. Clinton's slide comes mostly from a movement of more Democratic voters into the "no opinion" column.

Obama garners 44 percent of African-American voters in the South Carolina poll, to Clinton's 36 percent.

The poll was conducted over a single day (October 3) and included 1157 likely Democratic primary voters, which yieled a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. No indication of how many respondents were deemed not "likely voters," so it's a bit difficult to determine whether the pollsters' likely voter screen is on mark. But to give a comparison, the Pollster.com average out of the state through the end of September showed Clinton holding a larger lead of 40.9 percent to 28.3 percent, with the two most recent polls (ARG and Rasmussen) pegging Clinton's support in the low 40s and Obama's support right at 30 percent.

As is the case with Iowa, and to a lesser extent New Hampshire, the race in South Carolina seems to be settling into a particular dynamic, in this case a two-way race in which Clinton has a lead, though not a terribly large one. It almost seems like voters in the state are waiting for something to happen before they will break in one direction or the other. My assumption is that something will be the results out of Iowa and New Hampshire -- and perhaps Nevada or even Michigan -- but it's also possible that some big event will happen in the interim that shakes things up for a while.

Tags: 2008, Democratic primaries, South Carolina, South Carolina Primary (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Why is Edwards doing so badly in SC?

He's now in the single digits. What's going on with his campaign down there? So its now down to Clinton and Obama to duke it out in the Palmetto state.

by richochet 2007-10-06 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Why is Edwards doing so badly in SC?
I don't know if JE is even trying in SC.
Obama has multiple offices in the state and is doing two events in SC today.
by parahammer 2007-10-06 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Why is Edwards doing so badly in SC?

Edwards has been in freefall in SC since the beginnning of the year:

He's just up against two candidates that are wildly popular in the African American community, so Edwards gets zero black support in a state that is 49% African American. Clinton takes the white vote from him.

by hwc 2007-10-06 03:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Why is Edwards doing so badly in SC?

And Edwards wants us to believe he convert Red states to Blue in the South.

by Stephen Cassidy 2007-10-06 04:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Why is Edwards doing so badly in SC?

In all fairness, he probably wasn't thinking about the "Black vote" when he said that. Not drawing any conclusions , but hey.

by BlueDiamond 2007-10-06 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Why is Edwards doing so badly in SC?

So pray tell, which democrat WON'T get the black vote in the general election?

I believe the idea is he is most likely to attact independents and republicans.

by Rooktoven 2007-10-06 05:28PM | 0 recs
it's not a matter of percentages...

it's a matter of overall numbers.  getting 87% of 2 million is nice, but getting 90% of 4 million is better.  democrats have traditionally allowed voter suppression efforts to occur in black areas because they take the black vote for granted.  no need to work those areas, most (white) democratic candidates think, because we'll get them anyway.  obama, like other black candidates who win in white majority electoral districts (like the presidency or us senate) tend to not only pump up the number of overall black voters before election day but actually spend time working to reverse voter suppression in their areas and then turn out their vote on election day.

white candidates, like white activists, seem for the most part to be oblivious to this...

by bored now 2007-10-07 05:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Leads by 7 Points

Local reporting notes how the undecided vote is largely comprised of African-American women.  I imagine a combination of issues, including race baiting and racial blackmail, explains the high level of undecideds in that demographic.

by truthteller2007 2007-10-06 03:11PM | 0 recs
Hillary also at 53% in FLorida...

Noted as well...probably worth a mention...

by SaveElmer 2007-10-06 03:20PM | 0 recs
Obama Leads All Contenders in Washington

He appears to be electable in Washington.

At least 52 per cent of respondents in Washington would support the Illinois senator in head-to-head 2008 United States presidential contests against three Republican politicians.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/284 96/obama_leads_all_contenders_in_washing ton

by misscee 2007-10-06 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Leads by 7 Points in New SC Primary Po

Obama garners 44 percent of African-American voters in the South Carolina poll, to Clinton's 36 percent.

Bears repeating. (ahem)

by BlueDiamond 2007-10-06 04:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Leads by 7 Points in New SC Primary Po

Why?  How does that affect the general?

by Rooktoven 2007-10-06 05:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Leads by 7 Points in New SC Primary Po

By partly determining who the Democratic nominee would be?

by Shaun Appleby 2007-10-06 06:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Leads by 7 Points in New SC Primary Po

chuckle

by aiko 2007-10-06 06:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Leads by 7 Points in New SC Primary Po

That's great. It's not a runaway though...and in most polls Clinton is leading in African-American support in South Carolina.

That also bears repeating.

by arkansasdemocrat 2007-10-07 09:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Leads by 7 Points in New

The something other could be the debates.  Even though there have been a bigillion, I think the ones from now on are going to start getting more press.

The weird thing in Iowa and New Hampshire will be the holidays right before the votes.  Does that freeze the race?  Do people sway each other at family gatherings?  

by MassEyesandEars 2007-10-07 05:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Leads by 7 Points in New SC Primary Po

Barack is finished he can't hold the black vote and Johnny is sandwiched in.  Hillary has an 80% chance right now.

by dobied 2007-10-07 12:16PM | 0 recs

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