Clinton Leads by 7 Points in New SC Primary Poll
by Jonathan Singer, Sat Oct 06, 2007 at 02:21:58 PM EDT
The Southern Political Report is out with its latest polling out of South Carolina, and though the write up of the survey contains scant details of the data, here's what we have.
In South Carolina - which Obama has indicated will be critical to his campaign - Clinton leads with 35 percent of likely Democratic primary voters. That's down from the 43 percent she polled in a late July poll, but Obama's 28 percent is nearly identical to what he got in the July poll. Clinton's slide comes mostly from a movement of more Democratic voters into the "no opinion" column.Obama garners 44 percent of African-American voters in the South Carolina poll, to Clinton's 36 percent.
The poll was conducted over a single day (October 3) and included 1157 likely Democratic primary voters, which yieled a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. No indication of how many respondents were deemed not "likely voters," so it's a bit difficult to determine whether the pollsters' likely voter screen is on mark. But to give a comparison, the Pollster.com average out of the state through the end of September showed Clinton holding a larger lead of 40.9 percent to 28.3 percent, with the two most recent polls (ARG and Rasmussen) pegging Clinton's support in the low 40s and Obama's support right at 30 percent.
As is the case with Iowa, and to a lesser extent New Hampshire, the race in South Carolina seems to be settling into a particular dynamic, in this case a two-way race in which Clinton has a lead, though not a terribly large one. It almost seems like voters in the state are waiting for something to happen before they will break in one direction or the other. My assumption is that something will be the results out of Iowa and New Hampshire -- and perhaps Nevada or even Michigan -- but it's also possible that some big event will happen in the interim that shakes things up for a while.
Tags: 2008, Democratic primaries, South Carolina, South Carolina Primary (all tags)











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