Unelectable Republicans

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Oct 12, 2007 at 07:15:57 PM EDT

Yesterday Todd highlighted an interesting part of the latest Washington Post poll of Viginians: By a 52 percent to 41 percent margin, registered voters in the state would rather see a Democrat than a Republican in the White House. These numbers mirror the Democrats' big lead nationally in generic presidential ballot polling.

As we all know, campaigns are not about generic candidates, however -- they are about actual named candidates. Here, interestingly, the Republicans' problems are seemingly just as large. Looking at the most recent national survey conducted for The Post and ABC News, a couple of interesting numbers jump out. Among adults nationwide, 57 percent say that they would definitely not vote for Mitt Romney were he to garner the GOP nomination, and another 54 percent say they would definitely not vote for Fred Thompson. Naturally, situations can change over time, but these numbers look awfully bad, particularly for two candidates whose name recognition isn't yet universal. Within Virginia, a state carried by every Republican nominee since Richard Nixon, 53 percent of registered voters say they wouldn't vote for Romney as the Republican nominee. These numbers compare with under 45 percent for each of the three leading Democrats in Virginia and 43 percent or under nationwide.

It's worth nothing that campaigns are not fought in a vacuum, and that voters choose between two candidates. Still, the fact that so many voters, both nationwide and even in the traditionally stalwart Republican state of Virginia, are unwilling to vote for two of the three leading Republican candidates for the presidency is terrible news for the GOP.

Tags: Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, President 2008, Republicans (all tags)

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Re: Unelectable Republicans

I have to think Hollywood Fred has a lot more name recognition than Flip-flip Mitt.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2007-10-12 08:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: Unelectable Republicans

Romney's poll numbers suggest that voters have comprehensively dismissed him as the pathologically lying fraud that he is. He's like his own walking, talking flip-flopper ad. Mark my words, if he gets the nomination, he'll try to flop back towards the Massachusetts Mitt and Hillary will skewer him with before-after-before ads.

by hwc 2007-10-12 10:06PM | 0 recs

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These numbers are better than in '05

And we al saw what happened in '06.

The only way we don't do better in '08 than '06 is if a bunch of people on the far left start to pee inside the tent instead of out and mess up party unity.

by dpANDREWS 2007-10-13 06:40AM | 0 recs

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Re: These numbers are better than in '05

Party unity? The "far left" isn't the problem. It's the Democrats who have no reason to go along with the Right's agenda and who consistently betray us who are the problem.

Feinstein is a good example. Why does she carry water for the Right? (Voting to condemn MoveOn is one blatant example.) She's from San Francisco and represents California -- There is no need for her to kowtow to the O'Reillys and Limbaughs of this world, yet she does. Where is her loyalty?

by Oregonian 2007-10-13 09:05AM | 0 recs

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Re: These numbers are better than in '05

dp -- the far left usually fouls the Dems table. I will say one thing for the Grim Reaper party, their voters are loyal no matter what the issue they march in lock step with their leaders. Our liberals would just as soon dump both parties and go straight for a revolution. However, most of the country is in the middle--a president who governs from the center is usually successful.

by changehorses08 2007-10-13 09:46PM | 0 recs

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Re: Unelectable Republicans

For weeks now, the GOP noise machine has been subtlely campaigning for Hillary Clinton because she is perceived as the weakest general election foe for them (whether that is true or not is a separate debate, but that is definitely the PERCEPTION in the GOP ranks). Dems should be doing the same things with Romney. If he gets nominated, he will get crushed everywhere in the country. Since there's no chance that he can even carry his home state, there is a chance for a complete shut out with him at the top of the GOP ticket (maybe with the exception of Utah...). It's important that Dems play the GOP's game and do everything they can to bolster Romney's campaign.

by NJIndependent 2007-10-13 08:45AM | 0 recs

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Re: Unelectable Republicans

That's why they campaigned against Dean also, but that was less subtle. It was very important to both Washington machines to prevent any real discussion of withdrawal from Iraq in 2004 and again now. Both Republican and Democratic organizations paid big money to drive down his support.

And when they torpedoed Dean, it was a giant success. There has been no serious discussion of withdrawal from Iraq since the Dean campaign in late 2003. Unless Al Gore has a major change of heart next month, there won't be in 2008 either. And that means the war is safe until 2013 at least.

That's why we see the technique of targeting a preferred perceived-as-weak opponent on the other side being tried again. At the local level it often backfires so I wouldn't get too invested in its potential, though.

by Brian Watkins 2007-10-13 09:30AM | 0 recs

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Re: Unelectable Republicans

Brian--not necesarily. What can any candidate say when they don't know how bad Iraq will be when Bush leaves? If the top 3 Dem candidats said that they would get the troops out the minute Bush is gone -- he might start WW 3 to make sure his legacy is kept in tact. We are condemned to live in interesting times.

by changehorses08 2007-10-13 09:40PM | 0 recs

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Re: Unelectable Republicans

Slick Willard "Mitt" Romney is the favorite for the R nomination and Hillary is the front runner for ours.

Yet 57% say they would not vote for Slick Willard and 52% say they would never, ever vote for Hillary. I think they're telling the truth and voter turnout will be disappointing as usual.

by Brian Watkins 2007-10-13 09:23AM | 0 recs

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Re: Unelectable Republicans

Read the poll. The percentage of respondents saying they'd never vote for Clinton is 44 percent -- a far cry from a 52 percent majority.

by Jonathan Singer 2007-10-13 09:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: Unelectable Republicans

52% was the figure from another poll. Thanks for the detail, though.

by Brian Watkins 2007-10-13 10:04AM | 0 recs

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Re: Unelectable Republicans

Romney is a good looking dummy. His comment that if he has to attack Iran he will contact his lawyers instead of Congress shows that he is not ready for Prime Time. I think he needs to read the Constitution from cover to cover before he ventures out as a candidate for the Presidency.

by changehorses08 2007-10-13 09:35PM | 0 recs