Guess What? Rudy Giuliani's Not Doing Too Well, Either

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Jan 29, 2007 at 12:12:47 PM EST

Last night I took a gander at recent polling from Rasmussen Reports and noticed that the ever-rightward-drifting used-to-be-thought-of-as-a-maverick-but- now-we-know-he-is-just-a-partisan-and-id eological-hack John McCain is tanking in the polls. But it seems the Arizona Senator is not the only leading GOP candidate who is coming up short these days. Take a look at some of the head-to-head numbers found in the latest Newsweek survey.

1/24-25/2007, Registered Voters, MoE +/- 4.0%
AllDemGOPInd1/18Giuliani4612885048Clinton498594247Giuliani4415874347Obama477874545Giuliani4720864645Edwards4675104448

These numbers are not completely rosy for the Democrats and are certainly not as good as the numbers showing John McCain quickly sliding backwards against a whole slew of potential Democratic candidates. For one, the Democrats aren't pulling in the types of numbers among independents that would likely be necessary to defeat Giuliani -- or any other GOP candidate, for that matter. What's more, each of the three Democratic candidates listed polls only within the margin of error against Giuliani despite the fact that the partisan makeup of the poll is 35% D, 27% R, and 33% I. I would suspect that many of the self-proclaimed independents in the poll are actually Republicans ashamed of admitting their partisan preference, perhaps indicating that the Democrats are not bound to perform quite so poorly among indies -- or overall -- as this poll might indicate (though admittedly I don't know this for sure; it's a hunch not based on first-hand knowledge of the internals of the poll).

That said, Giuliani is supposed to be the Republican candidate with the widest potential for appeal, the candidate that Democrats have the most to fear from. Like Colin Powell in 1996, the media and the political punditry seem to assume that if only Giuliani can get through the Republican primary he would trounce any Democrat he faced. This poll clearly shows that this is not the case. And that the poll also shows John McCain trailing by between 4 and 6 points against any of the three Democratic candidates listed above and voters generically backing the Democratic candidate for 2008 by a sizeable 49 percent to 28 percent margin (including 42 percent to 19 percent among independents, with just 78 percent of Republicans backing the generic GOP candidate) should have Republicans very worried about their current standing among the electorate.

Tags: 2008 general, Rudy Giuliani (all tags)

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certainly Giuliani is more formidable than

McCain.. but he hasn't gone through the primary yet.. and unless I'm wrong Giuliani has a very sordid past.

on his third wife, married his second cousin,, all kinds of skeletons.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,, 2089-2534621,00.html

by TarHeel 2007-01-29 12:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: Guess What? Rudy Giuliani's Not Doing Too Well

Giuliani had a very messy divorce from his previous wife. He was engaged in an adulterous affair with his current wife, and had her living in the NY Mayoral Palace. The previous wife is a well-connected feminist type person.

Point being: Rudy might as well just kiss off the votes of any progressive, sensible woman, or any man who dislikes this kind of trophy wife crap.

by dataguy 2007-01-29 12:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: Guess What? Rudy Giuliani's Not Doing Too Well

I hope ol' Judy goes fucking ballistic. Rudy is a major-league scumbag, and I don't give a crap about his "leadership" in New York. He's a scumbag, leadership or not.

by dataguy 2007-01-29 12:25PM | 0 recs

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WHOOPS - BIMBOSWITCH

Made a major-league error there. It's Donna that will go ballistic. Judy will just go home and put on a plastic nighty.

by dataguy 2007-01-29 12:26PM | 0 recs

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Re: Guess What? Rudy Giuliani's Not Doing Too Well

Gosh, went and looked at pictures. Yep, just as I thought, Donna's kind of wrinkly, while Judy is nice and shiny. Has that "Trophy Wife 2003" bumper on her butt. Cute and ....

Well, not to get too crazy here, but I think that Rudy is gonna get all kinds of crap about Judy and Donna. I will certainly do my part to shovel as much of it as possible.

by dataguy 2007-01-29 12:32PM | 0 recs

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Re: Huckabee

How is Huckabee lining up? Has anyone tried his numbers? He seems like the only one who has a shot of putting together the GOP base with a pseduo "i am moderate" run in the general

by bruh21 2007-01-29 12:38PM | 0 recs

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Re: Huckabee

You listen to him for 1 minute, and he comes on with the "culture of life" crap and the Christian Triumphalism.

He's a complete wingnut, admittedly with his own diet book.

by dataguy 2007-01-29 12:39PM | 0 recs

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Re: Huckabee

I don't think he's appealing, but there are those who might. I think he's full of shit. But then my bullshit meter is pretty fine tuned.

by bruh21 2007-01-29 12:58PM | 0 recs

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Re: Huckabee

I think one of Mike Huckabee's strategies, if he gets within a stone's throw of the nomination, would be to point to his ability to govern with a Democratic legislature and still maintain, in fact promote, Republican social values.

I don't know much about his history as Governer but he seems to claim a proven track record at this sort of thing. Given the likelihood of a Democratic Congress after the 2008 elections this approach may prove quite potent to Republican voters.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-01-29 02:21PM | 0 recs

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Is Bush Jr Iraq defeat dragging down all Repubs?

There's seems to be a solid, cross poll trend of the leading Republicans dropping in the polls and the leading Democrats rising.

It's across the board, not confined to a single candidate, so a basic shift is going on.

Maybe the electorate is thinking "Hey...we voted to end the war and these guys are escalating it!"

That is the one generic factor that is common to the candidates. Guliani and McCain both support Bush Jr's escalation and Clinton, Edwards and Obama oppose it.

by BrionLutz 2007-01-29 12:50PM | 0 recs

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Yes, of course

The war has become wildly unpopular and will almost certainly become even more so. Yet Bush is determined to stay in, and by manipulating the current "worship the President" Republican meme is forcing the Republican party to stand for keeping us in Iraq. If we're still in in 2008 and the Republican party is all that's standing between the American people and getting out it's political Armageddon for the Republicans.

I can't figure out how Bush's advisors can be this dim. I'm guessing they're hoping for some mild improvement that will allow them to claim the escalation worked and then they'll pull out. I am starting to entertain the idea that Bush has simply lost his mind. "When God talks to you, it's schizophrenia."

by curtadams 2007-01-29 01:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: Yes, of course

"I can't figure out how Bush's advisors can be this dim."

Hillary had it right in her speech, Bush Jr and the Republicans want to hand this off to the next president so the "failure that cannot be tolerated" will belong to that president.

The Bush Jr/Republican line will be...hey...we were winning until they pulled the plug...we saw the light at the end of the tunnel.

by BrionLutz 2007-01-29 02:36PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is Bush Jr Iraq defeat dragging down all R's

GOP credibility/political capital is expended almost completely in all areas of domestic politics. Iraq is burning up the foreign policy and war-making cred. 'Fighting terrorism' is the one remaining area of cred with centrists, but plenty of them are tired of it too and will go with Al Qaeda's next attack in the West.

It's not Bush alone. That whole Party went along on the joyride and in essence chose to run itself into the ground with the Bush/Cheney crew. They rapidly expended their credibility on ethics/leadership, economic matters, and social issues as if there were no tomorrow. They tacked on a War On Terror/Brown-skinned Evildoers that has wiped out their credibility on international affairs at all levels. It's been the last big hurrah of the United States of Bigotry, Colonialism, and Provincialism...and what a pathetic and idiotic reign of fools it proved to be. All the pent-up stupidity wanted out, and out it has come.

On the polling that this thread is about...all the numbers look like a hardcore generic vote already established, with mainstream D's getting 48%-50% and mainstream R's getting 43%-45%. At the usual levels of means and effort and ability the Democratic nominee will win, and should win with about 52% of the vote.

by killjoy 2007-01-29 10:15PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is Bush Jr Iraq defeat dragging down all R's

"will go with Al Qaeda's next attack in the West."

Actually that is what the Republican's need...al Queda's success and Bush Jr's success have been linked since day one. If al-Queda succeeds, Bush Jr the Republicans succeed.

If there is another attack on the US, the Republicans will say it was emboldened by spineless Democratic Congress.

I liked that Biden was putting the focus on Bush Jr's failure (not "risk of failure" as Bush Jr would pretend) and the fact that it is the Bush Jr failure in Afghanistan/Pakistan against Bin Laden, Bush Jr failure in Iraq.

Democrats need to do more of that...point out that the failure has occurred and we now have to clean up the mess...not that there is a "threat of failure".

by BrionLutz 2007-01-30 05:21AM | 0 recs

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Polls Are Everything To Giuliani and McCain

There is no way in the world that McCain or Giuliani can get the Republican nomination unless it's clear that he WILL win and more conservative candidates cannot. Otherwise, the right-wing base will back one of their own (probably either Brownback or Huckabee, since Romney seems to be exploding on the launch pad, losing to Edwards 60-26, to Obama 56-30, and to Clinton 56-37 in the Newsweak poll.)

by Ron Thompson 2007-01-29 12:52PM | 0 recs

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Interesting numbers

Are there very many people in the country that don't already know about Giuliani's "family life"? What I do see in those numbers is that he picks up an amazing amount of Dem votes and a high percentage of GOP votes. (Don't see much of wingnut reaction). I would venture to say that Mr.Giuliani may well soon see his star rise. However, I would not count McCain out yet.

by joliepoint 2007-01-29 01:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: Interesting numbers

Oh, people know, but a well-timed and very clearly timed article will tune out a LOT of progressive women. This guy is a slime-ball.

by dataguy 2007-01-29 01:08PM | 0 recs

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Why do they keep giving us these numbers?

The only number that matters is the Electoral College related poll.

These kind of polls give me no idea which candidate will be better than republicans. What it really comes down to is which among the acceptable candidates are going to beat any republican in states like NH, FL, OH, NM , IA, IN, and a couple of borderline mountain states.

by Pravin 2007-01-29 01:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: Why do they keep giving us these numbers?

First of all, Indiana is not a swing state in presidential terms, regardless of the nominee for either side.

The number that matters to me is generic presidential preference. As long as the nation continues to tilt our way that should pay natural dividends down the road in terms of the specific matchups. In a 50/50 national climate we have a slight electoral college disadvantage but once you slant it a few points all of a sudden Ohio, in particular, flops our way and that changes the entire dynamic.

No doubt the Iraq escalation is why McCain and Guiliani and every other Republican is dropping in the individual polling. The longer that lasts, the more difficult it will be for the GOP to reverse in 2008.

by Gary Kilbride 2007-01-29 02:37PM | 0 recs

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Defect in Giuliani-edwards

Giuliani-Edwards, Republican support for Giuliani should be 86% (not 10%)

by Zimbel 2007-01-29 01:47PM | 0 recs

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Re: Guess What? Rudy Giuliani's Not Doing Too Well

With so many democrats being questiond regarding "lack of experience," when will someone raise RG's lack if it. No foreign policy experience at all. Never even ran a state.

RG does have one thing going for him over many of the R and D candidates though: He is not a senator. Senators always think their ofice is a great launching point for the white house, but it's not. The last sitting senator to win was JFK in 1960. The last former senator to win was LBJ in 1964, and that was (1) as an incumbent president; and (2) against a sitting senator. Meanwhile, count the current and former senators who won the nomination and lost the election since 1960: 1964; 1968; 1972; 1984; 1996; 2000 (actually he won); 2004. Add to that the current and former senators who ran but did not win the nomination.

by hilltopper 2007-01-29 01:48PM | 0 recs

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And Who Was The Last Mayor Elected President???

Lindsay???

Don't think so.

And he didn't even have that whole mistress/drag queen thing going on.

by Paul Rosenberg 2007-01-29 01:59PM | 0 recs

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Mayors

To be fair, how many mayors run?

by CT student 2007-01-29 03:56PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mayors

Lindsay and Yorty (LA) both ran in 72, but your point is well taken.

by hilltopper 2007-01-29 05:08PM | 0 recs

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Yeah, That Was Sort Of The Point

To be fair, how many mayors run?

It sort of ruins the joke when you have to explain it.

by Paul Rosenberg 2007-01-29 06:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: Guess What? Rudy Giuliani's Not Doing Too Well

With two Senators, McCain vs. C, E or O...the curse of the Senate won't be in play.

by BrionLutz 2007-01-29 02:32PM | 0 recs

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I'm Not So Worried About Guiliani

So he had a mistress.

No biggie.

So he had a mistress whom he flaunted in public.

No biggie.

So he had a mistress whom he flaunted in public, and lived with in the mayor's mansion.

No biggie.

So he had a mistress whom he flaunted in public, and lived with in the mayor's mansion, along with his wife.

No biggie.

So he had a mistress whom he flaunted in public, and lived with in the mayor's mansion, along with his wife and children.

No big.... (Psst! Karl! Hey Karl!) We'll get back to you on that.

by Paul Rosenberg 2007-01-29 01:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: Guess What? Rudy

The GOP lost 30% of the White Evangelical Vote in 2006.

What did these people say was the problem?

Corruption.

Being tainted.

They just couldn't take scandal after scandal.

I have problems with the Evangelicals, but I just don't think they can handle supporting someone that they have to ' excuse away'.

Someone, who by their very support of them, makes people look askance AT THEM, and accuse them of being hypocrits and being untrue to their values.

How do a group of folks, who claim to be for 'family values'.....

Vote FOR a man...

WHO HAD HIS MISTRESS IN THE SAME HOUSE AS HIS WIFE AND CHILDREN?

I'm a woman, moderate, but 'I' can't get past it.

I just don't think, when push comes to shove, that the evangelicals can get past it.

PS- that's why Newt " I wouldn't even let my cancer-stricken wife out of the hospital before I served her with divorce papers" Gingrich, is also out.

by rikyrah 2007-01-29 06:38PM | 0 recs

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Re: Guess What? Rudy Giuliani's Not Doing

I find it interesting (and a little disturbing) that the DLC candidate matches up the worst among independents, and the best among Democrats. What does that mean?

by nstrauss 2007-01-29 06:44PM | 0 recs