for giving us yet another reason to dump Sununu in 2008.

Johnny Jr.'s in a terrible position, being one of the only Republicans in New England who doesn't have "moderate" next to his name in the MSM.

He'll be spending the next two years running away from Bush, and I'll be spending the same amount of time reminding Granite Staters about his votes.

I'm currently intrigued by his inability to oppose  the escalation due to his BFF relationship to McCain.

I don't think we're in too bad a pickle for 2008 in any state other than LA.

AR-safe unless Huckabee gets in.  Boozman (I love that name) won't get in or win

DE-could be trouble if Biden retires and Castle goes for it, but I think (hope) he's likely to drop out of the pres race early on.

IL-Safe as can be, even if Durbin isn't that popular.

IA-Harkin could be in trouble, but I think he's safe if he faces likely GOP nominee, the wingnut Steve King.  Latham could possibly beat him though.  We'll see, but I think Harkin'll make it

LA-Today, I'd say we have an 80% chance of losing Landrieu.  Our best hope is that the GOP continues its long history (up till Vitter) of nominating loser candidates (David Duke) for statewide office there.  Draft David Duke for Senate 08?  I'd donate to that noble cause.

MA-the senate seat is safe, but our big fear here is that (if Kerry retires) every single dem rep (or at least a lot of them) will run for the senate.  Imagine all those open seats!  I'd bet we'd lose at least one.

MI-Levin just got a chairmanship, he's not retiring, he's an institution in MI, safe.

MT-Baucus is a dick, but the seat's safe unless Rehberg or maybe ex-Gov Racicot gets in.  He should get coattails from Schweitzer's certain reelection.

NJ-I love how it disappoints the GOP every single cycle (literally).  Unfortunately, it gives us heart-attacks every single cycle too.  Lautenberg'll probably win, unless against ex-Gov and EPA-head CTW.

RI-the safest seat of either side.  Reed is one of our best senators, and will be so for years to come.

SD-Only Rounds could beat Johnson.  Rounds is unlikely to run against him.  However, if Johnson retires due to health reasons Rounds has more incentive to get in the race.  If Johnson retires, Herseth is of course our best bet, and would win against just about any lesser-known.  We shouldn't have too much trouble keeping this one.

WV-Shelley MC could make it a race, but she wouldn't win.  Rockefeller's more popular than Byrd there.

I think that's a pretty honest rundown, what do you think?

Allard has another problem (well, in addition to his lack of effectiveness or personality):  he pledged to only serve two terms, so if he runs again he's breaking his word.  That sort of thing irks the very people his 90+ % scores were reaching out to.

I wonder whether there will be some effect from Mitt Romney's campaign for Gordon Smith.  If Mormonism becomes an issue then Smith might be tarred by the same brush.

More importantly, it will be fascinating to see how Smith deals with the escalation of the Iraq war.  It'll be very difficult for him to appeal to Oregon centrists without alienating his conservative base.  Smith must be in a tough spot.

Does anyone know who will run against him?

Arlen Specter should get the same asterisk that Joe Lieberman gets.  I'd even say he's possibly the worst member of the Senate.  His voting patterns do not come close to gauging the destruction he's caused with his highfalutin "principles" that he gives away in deals he touts as "compromises" with the White House.  He's done more to destroy American ideals than anyone outside of the White House, Tom DeLay and Grover Norquist included.

I think we need to factor in likelihood of retirements here as a major factor. Pressure from a challenger can speed that up.

For example, John Warner is unbeatable in VA, but if we make him sweat a little by threatening a vigorous Mark Warner challenge, then he may retire, leaving us with a battle of Virginia titans (M. Warner versus Tom Davis) that we can probably win.

Lautenberg and Kerry seem like probable Dem retirements, maybe Biden too.  NJ is the only state we'd have to worry about losing even though Delaware is not so liberal.  

The NJ GOP has had a rough time over the last few years.  I'm worried that they might finally win a statewide race one of these times.

I forget, is Larry Craig the latest self-hating gay Republican?  Maybe Larry Grant can be recruited to challenge him in 2008.  Not to single him out for being gay, but for being hypocritical about it.

Jonathan, excellent work as always.  Now that we have control of the Senate, can we corner these four or five Senators by making them vote on wedge issue bills - i.e. bills that would either anger their fundraising base or anger their voters?

Ben Nelson is not a Republican. Conservative, to be sure, but a Democrat nonetheless.

Kansas is drifting toward the center. Could Roberts be too extreme?

McCain has hinted pretty openly he would choose Graham as his running mate. I am not so sure -- double-Senator tickets aren't sure winners... but who knows, McCain's a renegade (we are constantly told). Graham would presumably do a Lieberman and run for Senate and VP simultaneously -- but on the off chance he doesn't, do we have a good candidate there?

He obviously has a deep deep base in NM, but his health is failing, he is past his prime, and in many ways starts to look more and more like Conrad Burns.

Plus, with so much at stake in NM in 08 we should be firing on all fronts.  Pete needs a challenge.

State Party and local groups need to hammer away at him relentlessly  starting now.
Bingaman has to stop giving him cover because of their mutual energy interests.
The netroots and party need to help tee up the challenger.  I presume someone like Udall.

If NJ, I sure hope that Rush Holt is the nominee.  Super ambitious Rob Andrews is a) a tool of the George Norwood machine certain to be freely and easily tarred by the Newark Star Ledger, the Record, and Republicans everywhere b) on Grove Norquist's Christmas card list c) the most "conservative" vote among NJ Democrats in the House or Senate.

Looks like Colorado is our best bet since a) Allard is not popular, b) Udall is popular, c) the state is trending blue, and d) Udall has more money in the bank than Allard. I'd love to see Allard retire (likely, in my opinion) and get a Udall vs. crazy Tom Tancredo match up.
I would say our next best bet is New Hampshire. That state is really going blue and Sununu is no moderate. But do we have a good candidate there?
Maine should be a good race, but Collins is pretty moderate so that makes it tough. Still, people in Maine love Snowe but Collins... not so much. In a state with only two reprsentatives, if Rep. Tom Allen does challange Collins, he would be a very formidable challanger since he represents half the state already.
Minnesota and Oregon could become good match-ups with the right challanger. If we get former govs Warner and Easley to run, I think VA and NC could become interesting too.
I know Inhofe has low approval ratings, but I just find it very hard to belive that we can win in OK or KA.
As for our side, I'd say that Louisiana is looking grim. Aside from that, I'm not worried about our incumbents, but open seats could be a problem. Open seats in DE, SD, and NJ would be vexing. Still, we have great candidates in the latter two (Herseth and Holt), and Deleware is blue and Castle's health problems might prevent him from running. Moreover, if Biden's son- who I believe is a statewide office holder- runs, he would have a very good shot.
Lastly, it looks like Hagel is not running for re-election, so hopefully we can field a strong challanger there. Of course you never know where the open seats are going to come from, but we must be ready to challange in even the reddest of states.