House 2008: The First Republican Vacancy of the 2008 Cycle?

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 12:25:25 AM EST

Now in the minority for the first time in a dozen years and facing the prospect of perhaps continuation of this status, some House Republicans will no doubt opt for retirement next year rather than enduring in the Capitol in a powerless position. According to the Hotline on Call blog, one such member of the House GOP caucus may have decided to call it quits in Congress.

Our TX affiliate, Quorum Report, just sent out a breaking news alert on GOP Rep. Ron Paul, a.k.a. "Dr. No." Paul, the '88 Libertarian candidate for the president, has apparently filed to run for president in '08, potentially opening up his House seat. Already, Quorum Report notes that one GOPer is making calls about a run. As for Paul, he plans to run as a GOPer this time.

Texas-14, which Paul represents, has a PVI of R+14, meaning that it tends to vote 14 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. For reference, two Democrats in Texas alone -- Chet Edwards and Nick Lampson -- won races in districts with a PVI in excess of R+14.

And almost anything can occur in open seats -- even ones with strong partisan leans. Last fall in an open race for Colorado's fifth congressional district, which has a PVI of R+16, the National Republican Congressional Committee was forced to invest close to $150,000 in independent expenditures. The NRCC and the Club for Growth also combined to spend close to $1 million defending Idaho's 1st district in an open race despite its PVI of R+19. So even if the Democrats are not able to win in Texas-14 next fall, which is far from a foregone conclusion, by recruiting a credible candidate -- be it 2006 nominee Shane Sklar or someone else -- the Democrats can force the Republicans to spend much needed dollars in a district that otherwise might be assumed to be safe, thus helping the overall effort to both hold on to the House and perhaps even extend the party's majority in the chamber.

Tags: House 2008, Open Seats, Retirements, TX-14 (all tags)

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Re: House 2008: The First Republican Vacancy of th

Would this seat really be open? I'm sure Paul could drop out in plenty of time from the presidential race to still run for re-election in TX-14.

Regardless of whether he stays or not, it seems like it will be difficult to pick this seat up.

by PsiFighter37 2007-01-12 04:04AM | 0 recs

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Re: House 2008: The First Republican Vacancy of th

Yeah, this seems pretty silly. Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich are running for president too. Does that mean their seats are open?

Politicians generally don't leave their seats to run for higher office unless they're selected as the nominee, and sometimes not even then (like Lieberman in 2000 running for VP and reelection to the Senate simultaneously). And Ron Paul is not going to be the Republican nominee. Now if he were running as a Libertarian he might be the nominee, but that's not what the article says.

by KCinDC 2007-01-12 12:54PM | 0 recs

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Go Open Seat!

I was under the impression TX-14 was less R than 14. Somethin about the state party (DeLay) had a strong dislike of Ron Paul and wanted to give him a less than certain district. Oh well . . .

Additionally, I don't trust PVIs from Texas or Massachusetts due to being homestate advantages. I do know a few people who voted for Bush only because he was a "local" so I'd temper htat actual PVI. As for TX-14, the big hotspot for us would be Galveston, which has been moving right but is still left enough to elect the right kind of Dem. Sklar was a rancher (and a good candidate) who appealed to the parts south in Victoria and such. Someone from the Galveston area might make a pretty good candidate as well. Sadly the really D areas of La Marque and Texas City are in TX-22 (well, not that sadly, that is my district and it gives Lampson some nice cushioning)

If this is Open, I expect a Republican from Friendswood to jump up and for the Dems either Sklar runs again or a Dem from Galveston City Council or a Yarborough of some sort.

by Trowaman 2007-01-12 05:06AM | 0 recs

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Ron Paul's district

Ron Paul claimed before the 2004 election (on CSPAN) that his district was marginally Republican although he then ran unopposed that year. Tom Delay claimed that with his engineered gerrymander shifting some of his district, 22nd, to Paul's, 14th, (putting me in the 14th) that he was helping out Paul.

Paul opposes the war. His last Democratic challenger, Sklar, "probably would have voted for it," he said in 2006 when he could have easily claimed otherwise.

In my piece of the 14th people are too economically "fat and happy", many tied to the oil industry, and risk social ostracism to admit voting Democrat or not being "religious."

by goubuli 2007-01-12 05:32AM | 0 recs

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Re: Ron Paul's district

can you link to said piece? I'd like to read it.

Also, I went down the 2006 county by county numbers. The 2 big population areas are Galveston county and Brazoria county. Sklar lost both, Galveston 55-45. This reinforces to me that if we run a well established member of Galveston that we could at minimum cut a rpeublican win from Paul's 60% to 55 or 56.

As for Brazoria, if anyone knows how to win there, please let me know, cause I got no idea.

by Trowaman 2007-01-12 05:37AM | 0 recs

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Re: Ron Paul's district

Delay redistricting:
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/ar ticles/060306fa_fact

Remember seeing Delay talking about the favor he did Paul talking with obvious annoyance since Paul wasn't a loyal (read intimidated) obedient follower.

Sklar position on war vote:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/p re/TX/H/14/51461/profileIF.html

by goubuli 2007-01-12 06:48AM | 0 recs

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Too bad

Paul votes with use half the time. He is by far the most disloyal Republican in the country. Whatever Dem we get n a seat like that probably wouldn't be much better.

by Chris Bowers 2007-01-12 05:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: Too bad

Paul is only an ally if you don't want something to pass. there's a reason why he's called Dr. No. (except, of course, for the fact that he voted to extend Bush's tax cuts and for the border fence.)

by johnny longtorso 2007-01-13 08:11AM | 0 recs

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Republican PVI

I'd like to point out that in NE-03 (Western rural Nebraska), Scott Kleeb (D) was temporarily leading in the polls, and his GOP opponent had to have the Club for Growth and NRCC and George Bush personally bail out him out at the last minute.

NE-03 has the 4th most R PVI in the country.
This proves, without a doubt, that no matter where it is, if the seat is open we need to be contesting it, and contesting it hard.

At the very least, when it comes to open-seats, we can't ever afford not to put up a strong fight.

by johnowens2 2007-01-12 06:38AM | 0 recs

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Re: Republican PVI

Here is the deal.

2006 was a Wave Election. That means that using the results in 2006 to assume 2008 might be completely off the mark unless we see the same kind of disgruntled wave effect in Republican districts in 2008. Without that kind of national disgruntlement with the Congress, our results in places like NE-03 and Idaho-01 will be our high-water marks unless there are individual circumstances (as with DeLay or Foley's district) that affect the races. We need to compete but to look at them as anything our than extreme long shots is to court disaster.

I understand optimism and targeting but we need to have one foot on the ground too.

by MNPundit 2007-01-12 08:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: House 2008: The First Republican Vacancy of th

Paul was certainly vulnerable this cycle, given that he voted against hurricane relief funding, even though his districts encompasses half the Texas coast line and was almost hit by Rita. Galveston has a large African-American population, and Sklar could not even win there.

True, if its open we might have a better shot, and if the national mood sours against Republicans further - likely given Bush's desire to engulf the entire Mid-East in war by attacking Syria and Iran - who knows?

But living in that district, let me tell you its a hard sell.

by parmenides 2007-01-12 07:51AM | 0 recs