Wow Chris...great job.

is very interesting.  

They spent the money on August 21st - and I haven't heard anything through the grapevine about what the poll showed. My guess is that it did NOT confirm the Research 2000 poll - or we would have heard about it.  

NH 2 is interesting in a number of ways.  I talked with someone with a long history of experience in NH primary politics about a month ago.  What interests him about NH 2 is the pattern of the migration into the District.  Historically most migration to NH comes from the Boston area.  Over the years they have tended to take an anti-tax attitude with them - and have tended to somewhat strengthen the GOP as a result. You can see this to some extent in places in the extreme South of NH.

However, the most recent migration to NH differs significantly from the migration from 1980 to 1995.  It has not been as uniformally from MA, and has tended, in this person's view, to be more Democratic.

All of this would seem to suggest that NH2 should be vulnerable.  The problem is Charile Bass - who on first blush is a little like the first Congressman I ever met - Jim Jeffords (in the fall of 1980 before an Anderson for President event).

It seems from afar that Bass's similarity to Jeffords is much more in image than in substance. Jeffords didn't vote for Reagan, and I don't think he voted for Bush.  Hell, Jeffords was for civil unions.  It shouldn't be too hard to tie Bass to Bush in way you could never do with Jeffords. Nevertheless, the Democrats have fielded some pretty good candidates in NH2 in recent years - and they never make it.  My guess is that Bass will survive again.

But it would be interesting to know what the GOP poll found.  

Chris,

I totally agree.  I love your wonky stuff and like to pass it along to my readers out in the state of Washington.  

I look forward to checking on our local Republican in a tight race - Dave Reichert, running against Darcy Burner in WA-08.  

Thanks.

Thanks for this, but it raises my blood pressure.  Not one dime for Selden Spencer in IA-4.  If they don't even bother to do any polling, how do they know what the prospects are?  

There are probably races all over the country like this one, where a modest media buy, targeted at cable and radio,as Kos and Jennifer Nix pointed out, would make a difference. These are not big media markets.  Most of the 4th is rural.

Iowa is not Utah, and being abandoned by the national party makes me mad.  I have given nothing to the DCCC this year, because of this issue.  My contributions are going directly to campaigns.

Thank you Chris - this information is disturbing but so valuable.

We have so many good candidates this year and none of them are getting support from DCCC - guess we just have to do it ourselves!

swoon

I'm addicted to data at this point. There is no doubt in mind. Crunching numbers and sussing out patterns...who needs hobbies?

With that in mind, an interesting little bit about the man being paid to make attack ads in CT-05, NY-20 and elsewhere. His name is Mark Walpole, and when he isn't making sanctimonious Republican opposition ads, he is directing/producing videos for GWAR, the shock rock band who (though they have a special place in my heart) have made several carrears out of offending as many people as humanly possible. Maybe this is a non-issue, but it certainly struck a chord in my head when I heard it. I wonder how many right-wing evangelicals would be put off by ads created by a man who spent a decent bit of time filming the blood/semen/misc. bodily fluid spewing antics of GWAR.

Amazing work. Thanks to you Chris, your brother Andy and Kombiz.

Great Work Chris.

I should not be surprised, but I am at a loss for words when I look at districts where we have a reasonable shot at a truly awful Repub in a lean R district and see (in thousands):
CA-11   NRCC 279    DNCC ZERO
CO-04   NRCC 176    DNCC ZERO
MN-06   NRCC 179    DNCC ZERO
PA-07   NRCC 199    DNCC ZERO

Why would the NRCC be spending money in these districts if they did not see a need?  Where is the DCCC?  

This is good work. Thanks. I think it needs a permanent link in the "MyDD Projects" column so it can be accessed without having to look for it.