While they're at it, can the insider also explain why so many states have primaries almost too late to matter?  Of course, that's a question that contains it's own answer, I guess.

The reason I've seen given for her surprising win is a committed group of local volunteers who were well organized and, for example, wrote targeted notes to neighbors or friends recommending the winner.  The issue was the war and, once again, it was a winner.

The same commentary said, incidentally, thatCarol Shea-Porter is now a national force within the Democratic Party given the importance of New Hampshire and suggested that lots of the 2008 hopefuls would comecourting with money and with personal visits.  Maybe Feingold, Clark, and others will make this one competitive.

Hillary is left with tons of cash but given her pro-war stance may be locked outside for this one.  She's not spending it in NY.  NH seems to be closed or at least closing.  Is she going to become the leading voice for Leonard Boswell?  That is about all that is left.  The train is leaving the station and she sure doesn't look like a passenger.

1.  Although the primary is mostly a serious about politics event the DCCC doesn't hold much weight outside the inner circle.
   
2.  The only statewide TV Station has been running a series which showcase all the candidates and she was just better.
   
3.  She worked her tail off all over the state.  And she was very very good.
   
4.  The "insiders choice" had more money but was very "hang dog" about the fact that there was any primary at all and didn't exert himself.
   
5.  She has a great message, great energy and did the work.
   
6.  Common wisdom was that a Manchester Dem was needed instead of a "Seacoast" one.  It's amazing to me that a state as small as NH can have so many local prejudices and otherwise intellegent people are so blinded by them. (Note:  I'm from the Lakes Region and happy to support any Democrat we can find.)
   
7.  Although she mentioned being a Clark activist she was smart enough not to act like a "Clarkie" and alienate those of us who supported other candidates
   

I don't see the Dems winning this one either. Hopefully, Graf is crazy enough elsewhere to counteract his immigration issue, but I don't know enough to say.

Immigration is a significant issue and Graf does have a base in the area.

However, this is the district that voted in a somewhat moderate (gay) Republican for years (Graf only won one (rural) county when trying to run against him).    The local press, who are arguably not the best at covering elections, were already asking him about the rumors that Republicans would rather cross over and vote Dem or not vote at all than vote for him in the general.  Giffords, in contrast, got softball (albeit somewhat random) questions.

I've also heard that Tucson itself is now predominately hispanic and in a city council vote a few months ago, all of the Republican council members were tossed out (even a Ronstadt and that family is huge there).  I don't know how far out Graf can actually get on the crazy train to energize his base without alienating everyone else.  

The district only has about 5% Republican advantage and I can only hope, with the district actually being on/near the border, most people are more rational when it comes to dealing with immigration.  Sure we don't like the strain on education/health resources, the economy of much of southern AZ is dependent on immigrant workers and Mexican citizens who travel back and forth freely.  

I only worry that Graf's rabble-rousing will encourage the crazies to come out and vote for (Sen.) Kyl and the republican candidate for governor (Munsil - who has some sort of affiliation with Focus on the Family).  To sum up - I don't think the district is that "red," and "blue" (and "white"?  what is independent?) voters seem angry and are turning out.

It's obvious you don't know the district.   I used to LIVE in AZ-08 and have family in CA-50.  

You cannot compare the two.  Period.  One is solidly GOP while the other was almost split down the middle.  And Tucson-area Republicans tend to be more centrist than in other parts of the state (look at the Tucson Reps in the legislature).

The dirty little secret is that both the state Republican party and RNC are effectively conceding this race...already.  We shouldn't underestimate Graf, but Giffords (barring a major fuck-up) wins by ten.  Take that to the bank.

My one worry:  Turnout.

56,000 Republicans turned out for what no one really thought of as a contest between Gard and McCormick. Only 52,000 people turned out in the highly contested Democratic primary. That's a 4% Republican advantage. While some McCormick voters may well bolt to Kagen, the good Doctor is going to have to capture a significant majority of that elusive non-primary-but-general-election voter.

On the other hand, only 12,000 people voted for Dottie LeClair in that district in the 2004 (uncontested) Democratic Primary (and 52,000 Republicans for Mark Green), so the contested primaries did significantly increase turnout, especially on our side. That could signal an important shift.

Randy Koehn, who won his primary in the 89th AD, tells me a lot of Dems voted R, as well, for races like DA, which could also account for the Republican advantage.  But I haven't seen hard numbers on that, so I'm reluctant to call it gospel.

Still, I'm optimistic overall given state-wide turnout:  357,182 (or so) people voted in the Democratic primary for Attorney General; 238,606 (or so) people voted in the Republican primary for Attorney General.  That's a 20% Dem advantage, and bodes well for keeping Doyle and the AG, and maybe picking up the state senate.

This one is a pickup if Kissell can get money and name recognition. Hello DCCC??? DNC??? Somebody???

Hayes voted for CAFTA in a district that has been hit hard by outsourcing.

Hayes hasn't done much of anything for the voters of NC-08 except screw them.