Edwards Slightly Ahead

I took the redeye yesterday, so I collapsed into bed at about 9pm.  And then I woke up and looked at the latest numbers in the Wynn-Edwards race, with 75% of precincts reporting.

Donna EDWARDS        25694    48%
Al *WYNN        25478    48%
George McDERMOTT    2202    4%

There were massive voter problems yesterday.  Voting hours were actually extended, and people had to vote with provisional ballots. Apparently more ballots will be counted today.

I'm still trying to find out what's going on.  I don't trust these numbers.

UPDATE: Ok, here's what I understand is going on right now. Basically the provisional ballots, all of which are from Montgomery County, will not be counted until next week. Montgomery County is where Donna Edwards has her base, so that's a very good thing. Voting problems, mostly due to the poor quality of the Diebold systems, were extensive. I'm trying to get information from the legal team of the Edwards campaign to lock this down.

I did not expect Donna to come this close, but it looks like she might have pulled this one out. Wow.

UPDATE AGAIN: DON'T USE DIEBOLD. Their equipment sucks. Read this first-hand account of how much they suck.

From CQ Politics:

A CQPolitics.com analysis of votes at 5:15 a.m. Eastern time showed Edwards leading Wynn by 49 percent to 47 percent, following a complete but unofficial count of votes in Montgomery County, where Edwards ran strongly. But Wynn is expected to take the lead after a counting of the votes in 40 outstanding precincts in Prince George’s County.

It doesn't say whether this count includes provisional ballots, which is the key.

Tags: Al Wynn, Donna Edwards, Maryland (all tags)

Comments

27 Comments

Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

Right. With 64% of the votes tallied, Wynn led 50% to 46%. For the "current" (75% of precincts) results to be true, Edwards would have needed 60% of the next 11.2k votes. Possible, great news if true, but I'm skeptical.

by Bob Miller 2006-09-13 04:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

That's just a question of which precincts were being counted.

by Matt Stoller 2006-09-13 04:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

Good to see that Donald Schaefer came in third:

Peter FRANCHOT    176448    36%
Janet OWENS    166949    34%
Wm. Donald *SCHAEFER    149186    30%

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-09-13 04:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

If Franchot pulls this out the Maryland State Dem Party will be promoting an all white male slate, with Anthony Brown dangling like a participle.

In a state that is 33% black and 51% female that is a sorry testament to the party elders.

Someone said that in a deep blue state its is necessary and appropriate to go way left but I am beginning to believe that what this state really needs a viable and vibrant GOP.  

by aiko 2006-09-13 05:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

Wrong on many counts. This has little to do with party elders etc. Owens, while better than Schaefer, was not much of a dem and even considered being Bobby's running mate. Stuart Simms got a late start, and it appears that Tom Peretz' support went to Gansler (BTW I thought Peretz was the better candidate but unfortunately he didn't qualify). Lastly, had someone like Elijiah cummings or Anthony Brown (who BTW is also a Fighting Dem) run, they probably would have raised more money and won. So this has more to do w/ the quality of female/minority candidates (and time of entry in Simms' case, though his connection with the boot camps probably hurt) and not some mythical "party elders".

by elessar 2006-09-13 05:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

You guys always have a good reason why the minorities and woman lose.

by aiko 2006-09-13 05:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

WTH do you mean by "you guys"? Are you implying that I'm racist and/or sexist? cause if you are, you are completely and utterly WRONG!!! I just happen to think that if Simm's started earlier he may have won, that Owens is little better than Schaefer--she considered being EHRLICH'S RUNNING MATE!!, and that Mfume--while a good candidate and an honorable public servant--had too many negatives to overcome, while someone like Brown or Cummings could easily have kept better pace w/cardin (or even convince him not to run) and maybe even win the primary and be in stronger position in the general than Mfume.

by elessar 2006-09-13 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

I was implying that you were male.

Have you heard the saying: ye doth protest too much?

And by the way around here we try not give ones when we don't agree and save those for the real trolls.

by aiko 2006-09-13 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

and white.

by aiko 2006-09-13 07:39AM | 0 recs
A Franchot win?

The later returns most likely will come from the part of the district that is in Montgomery County, where Donna is stronger.  

There haven't been any reports here on Maryland's Comptroller race.  The Comptroller in Maryland is actually a critical, independent office--one of only three statewide elected offices.  After polling at 15 percent about a month ago, the progressive candidate Peter Franchot is leading by 10,000 votes with 93 percent of precincts reported.  In third place is incumbent Comptroller and former governor William Donald Schaefer

by Steve Hill 2006-09-13 04:08AM | 0 recs
Re: A Franchot win?

I heard that Peter wasn't progressive.  why do you say he is?

by aiko 2006-09-13 05:25AM | 0 recs
Re: A Franchot win?

Where did you hear that he wasn't.

First of all, he endorsed Dean for president. He also led efforts to override Ehrlich's veto of bills that would limit tuition (wish we had more of his kind here in OH), supports gun control, woman's right to choose, and environmental protection. Sounds like a progressive to me. Maybe not compared to Mfume, but certainly when compared to Schaefer.

by elessar 2006-09-13 05:34AM | 0 recs
Re: A Franchot win?

Of the three, Franchot is clearly the most progressive. He got my vote, even though he kind of comes off as arrogant - but what politician isn't?

by mkrc98 2006-09-13 07:04AM | 0 recs
Uncounted votes in PG County

Bad news for Edwards... CQ Politics is reporting that Wynn is expected to take the lead:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/09/wynn_b arely_hanging_on_as_vote.html

"A CQPolitics.com analysis of votes at 5:15 a.m. Eastern time showed Edwards leading Wynn by 49 percent to 47 percent, following a complete but unofficial count of votes in Montgomery County, where Edwards ran strongly. But Wynn is expected to take the lead after a counting of the votes in 40 outstanding precincts in Prince George's County.

The county is Wynn's home base, and he led Edwards by 17 percentage points in the portions where the vote already had been recorded."

I'm holding out hope that Edwards is going to pull it out, but PG County really is Wynn's base.  This is where Edwards needs to win over some Dem voters that maybe weren't paying much attention and were just voting for the Wynn "machine."

Looks like the provisional ballots in Montgomery County won't matter... not with 40 precincts in PG County still outstanding.

by wintersnowman 2006-09-13 04:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncounted votes in PG County

Is there any explanation for why the reports from PG  precincts are taking so long? After all, Montgomery County was where the polls closed later. How many times have we seen this pattern where the progressive candidate is ahead but the votes from the conservative candidate's stronghold are delayed and manage to reach the numbers necessary to win?

by KCinDC 2006-09-13 05:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncounted votes in PG County

The math of this one is complicated

The 40 outstanding precincts in PG county will probably up Wynn margin to about 2,000- 4,000 (extrapolating from the margins he received in the precincts that have reported-- depends on the size of the outstanding precincts and where they are -- Edwards actually won in some parts of PG County)

That part means she's got a lot of ground to make up.

At this point, there is no public information about how many votes may be outstanding in Montgomery County (Where she was winning 60%+ of the votes). There are 67 precincts in the district in Montgomery County -- because of the screw up, all of those precincts would have been accepting provisional ballots during the morning voting rush and all votes cast during the extra hour the polls were open in the evening.

For Edwards to make up the margin anticipated for Wynn out of PG, there would have to be an average of approximately 125 provisional ballots cast at each of the Montgomery County polling places... given the confusion and chaos that reigned in Mont county polling places yesterday, that is not out of the question, but at this point there has been no public statement of the number of provisional ballots (except for some media discussion of "thousands" in the county as a whole)

What's next -

  • presumably the outstanding PG precinct results will get released today
  • absentee ballots will be counted on Thursday (in both counties) - it will be interesting to see if those break strongly for one candidate or another
  • next Monday the Montgomery county Board of Elections will count the provisional ballots
  • I suppose that, if at that point it is extremely close, there would be potential legal actions based on the clearly documented number of voters in Montgomery county who were turned away from the polls (if Wynn were to narrowly prevail over Edwards). I imagine that, if Edwards were to beat Wynn based on the provisional ballots, there would be potential legal challenges there too (for example, voters in some precincts that ran out of ballots were instructed to write their candidates on scraps of paper!)

What a mess... stay tuned, the fat lady has definitely not sung yet on this one.

by terje 2006-09-13 06:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

Looking at the state legislature races that still have incomplete returns, they appear to be in eastern Prince Georges. I don't expect this to be fertile Edwards territory. The Montgomery provisional ballots should favor Edwards, but I haven't heard any count of the number of these things.  

I'm pleasantly surprised by the Franchot numbers. I was about to hold my nose and vote for Owens just to get rid of Shaeffer, but decided that she might even be worse. Shaeffer is a jerk, but he's generally independent. Owens is chummy with Gov. Ehrlich and was even mentioned as a possible running mate for him. Since the comptroller and the governor are 2/3 of the board that decides public contracts, we need someone who's not a pal.

Also, the Montogomery problems were not really machine problems. They were human error. The election board forgot to include the voter cards (with the magnetic strip that activates the voting machine) in the materials they sent to polling places.  By the time I voted at 10:30, everything was running smoothly at my polling place, but when my wife voted at 7:30, they were using paper ballots. The Wash Post reported this morning that they were passing out provisional ballots in spanish when the english ones ran out in some places.

by tawinmd 2006-09-13 04:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

  Not that it matters all that much in the great scheme of things, but I want to humbly tell everyone that I was elected to the Frederick County (MD) Democratic Central Committee last night. I'm a kingmaker!

  I've got my fingers crossed for Donna, but it doesn't look great.

  Re Owens: There are actually people I know -- informed, intellgent, loyal Democrats -- who held their noses and voted for Owens because "they thought she had a better chance". Guys, Janet Owens is Schaefer 2.0 -- what exactly ARE we accomplishing by electing her? I proudly voted Franchot. Lesson: VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE YOU WANT TO SEE WIN. A "strategic" vote can do nothing but blow up in your face.

by Master Jack 2006-09-13 04:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards Slightly Ahead

The Maryland Comptroller is a powerful position that has a lot of say on how money is spent in the state. There's no way Shafer is going to win it now, with 93% of precincts reporting.

The combination of O'Malley, Franchot and Gansler in top offices will mean some substantial changes in education, health care, criminal justice, transportation and environmental policies. Maryland will probably join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and take the lead on other similar issues.

by billybob 2006-09-13 04:49AM | 0 recs
A reason to be hopeful...

Yeah, Prince George is a Wynn stronghold.  But, think about this: the people that actually bothered to stay and fill out a provisional ballot had to be motivated voters.  I think that could skew things Edwards' way.

by Dumbo 2006-09-13 06:34AM | 0 recs
Wynn now leads :-(

With 81.87% of precincts reporting, Wynn now leads 48.78% to 47.22%.  He leads by just under 1000 votes.  With so many of the remaining precincts supposedly in Wynn's PG County stronghold, this does not look good.  Only think I'm praying for is a deluge of Edwards provisional ballots when they finally get around to the counting.  

BTW, anyone have any idea why it is taking so long to get the results for Wynn country?  Any possible vote rigging going on?  I wouldn't put anything past this scumbag.

by jed63 2006-09-13 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Wynn now leads :-(

Modem problems added to the growing roster of computer snafus. Two-third of PG County precincts had to deliver computer disks by hand. There were also sporadic problems reported saving the election results to disc. More than ever we need hard copy backup.

See http://www.gazette.net/stories/091306/pr incou15530_32007.shtml

by billybob 2006-09-13 07:55AM | 0 recs
Wednesday Noon Update

Congress-District 4 Democrat
Total Reporting:88%
      Name     Votes     Pct.
    Al *WYNN    33143    49%
    Donna EDWARDS    31242    47%
    George McDERMOTT    2610    4%
LAST UPDATE: Sep-13-2006, 11:43 AM Eastern Standard Time
by RT 2006-09-13 08:05AM | 0 recs
Wynn 36,212, Edwards 34,008

At 12.20 pm with only 8 more precincts outstanding, all in Wynn's base of PG county, so his margin will probably go up by a few hundred more

The absentees are Thursday will be the next big test of this -- I hope Donna Edwards had a good absentee operation in place

And then on Monday they'll count all of those provisionals

Whatever the outcome, the final margin will be razor thin in either direction -- I'm actually betting it will be under 1,000 in either direction

by terje 2006-09-13 08:26AM | 0 recs
Help me Here!

How does this analysis reconcile with the Washington Post's, which claims:

In Maryland's 4th District congressional race, challenger Donna Edwards was in a virtual tie with veteran Democrat Rep. Albert R. Wynn based on partial returns. But much of Edwards's support was coming from precincts in Montgomery County, which comprise only a small part of the congressional district.

In Prince George's County, where most 4th District voters live, Wynn had a double-digit lead over Edwards, and more than a third of the vote had not yet been tallied. All the electronic ballots in Montgomery had been counted, but not the provisional ballots. Political observers said it seemed likely that Wynn would pull ahead of Edwards once the remaining Prince George's ballots were counted.

by VeniceDave 2006-09-13 10:02AM | 0 recs
2pm, 94% reporting, Wynn up by 2800+

Congress-District 4 Democrat
Total Reporting:94%
      Name     Votes     Pct.
    Al *WYNN    36141    50%
    Donna EDWARDS    33290    46%
    George McDERMOTT    2787    4%
LAST UPDATE: Sep-13-2006, 01:55 PM Eastern Standard Time
by RT 2006-09-13 10:09AM | 0 recs
Re: 2pm, 94% reporting, Wynn up by 2800+

What this means is Edwards lost. Even if she got the marjority of the outstanding ballots the race is not that close. Wynn will obviously get a smimilar share to he currente vote total, I predict Edwards will lose by slightly less than 4,000 votes.

by bette 2006-09-15 04:56PM | 0 recs

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