Governor Forecast 2006 Update

The race for control over the nation's governorships remains surprisingly static even as developments in individual races shift numbers one way or another and a handful of primaries remain before all of the ballots are set.

As the Democrats' chances in states like Alaska and Alabama decline, states like Minnesota and Nevada are becoming more competitive. Races in which Democrats are currently favored to pick up seats (Arkansas and Maryland, for example) are not tightening up, which also bodes well for the party. At the same time, the Democrats still must watch out for Republican challenges in Midwestern states like Wisconsin and Iowa as the GOP tries to capitalize on general voter discontent, and a handful of other Democratic Governors outside of the region must remain vigilant lest they lose their current advantages.

The Governor Forecast 2006, which I am updating on Tuesdays and Fridays and which I will run down on MyDD's front page every Tuesday afternoon/evening between now and election day, still shows the Democrats in a good position to pick up a solid majority of the nation's governorships.

My overall outlook is unchanged from last month, though I now see a greater possibility of Michigan's Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm losing in November. Nevertheless, I currently predict Democratic wins in New York, Ohio, Massachusetts, Arkansas, Maryland, Colorado and Rhode Island. The resulting current prediction is a flip in control of the governorships. Currently, Republicans hold 28 seats while Democrats hold 22; I now forsee the Democrats winning 29 positions to the Republicans 21.

Democratic Targets

  • Safe Democratic: New York

  • Likely Democratic: Ohio and Massachusetts

  • Leans Democratic: Arkansas, Maryland and Colorado

  • Toss-Up: Rhode Island

  • Leans Republican: Minnesota, Nevada, California and Florida

  • Likely Republican: Alaska, Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama

  • Safe Republican: Jodi Rell in Connecticut, Linda Lingle in Hawaii, Butch Otter in Idaho (filling an open seat), Dave Heineman in Nebraska, Mike Rounds in South Dakota, Rick Perry in Texas (though the race should be interesting with two strong independent candidates), and Jim Douglas in Vermont.

Republican Targets

  • Toss-Up: Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Maine

  • Leans Democratic: Illinois and Oregon

  • Likely Democratic: Pennsylvania and Arizona

  • Safe Democrat: Kathleen Sebelius in Kansas, John Lynch in New Hampshire, Bill Richardson in New Mexico, Brad Henry in Oklahoma, Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, and Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming.

For polling and analysis on the key races, make sure to check out the full Governor Forecast 2006.

Tags: election forecasts, Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

Comments

10 Comments

Re: Governor Forecast 2006 Update

No way is Wisconsin a toss-up, it's gotta be lean Democratic.

Also, I don't know that Minnesota and California could reasonably be in the same category. Arnold is looking unstoppable, whereas the Pawlenty-Hatch matchup is looking closer by the minute.

by malkori 2006-09-12 05:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Governor Forecast 2006 Update

You should change PA to a Democratic Lock - there is no way in hell Swan will come close to Rendell.

Rendell's war chest is huge and he will completely bury Swan with it.

The real shame is that Rendell can't see past his own name on the ballot, yet again completely ignoring the enormous Party building opportunity staring him in the face.

by Joe in Wynnewood PA 2006-09-12 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Governor Forecast 2006 Update

No kidding.  I mean he only has the opportunity to lead the Democratic Party to wins in the state legislature, 3-4 House seats, and a huge Senate seat.

Besides that, not much else is going on in PA this year.

What an a**

by Eric11 2006-09-12 06:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Governor Forecast 2006 Update

that's actually started to change this week

by orin76 2006-09-13 08:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Governor Forecast 2006 Update

The Latest Chicago Tribune poll shows Blago cruising, up 12 points.  No trend lines from Tribune, but the trend from other polls shows increasing support.

The green party candidate is keeping him under 50%.

45 Blago
33 Topinka
6 Green candidate

+-4% MOE

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/natio nworld/chi-0609120183sep12,1,1982130.sto ry

by JJCPA 2006-09-12 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Governor Forecast 2006 Update

Blago's messaging has been very strong and very simple.  He started his ads very early with one consistent theme, linking her to Bush and other evils.

"What's she thinking?"

by JJCPA 2006-09-12 05:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Governor Forecast 2006 Update

You're unduly pessimistic on the Democratic-held seats.  Oregon used to be competitive, but now it's safe Dem. The Repugs are going nowhere.  And Michigan is the only tossup in the bunch; the other three are not out of the woods, but they significantly lean Dem.

The Republican-held seats, on the other hand, look right on the money.

by admiralnaismith 2006-09-12 07:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Governor Forecast 2006 Update

Colorado is going Dem this election.

Bill Ritter(D) is running a pretty strong campaign with high name recognition and Beauprez(R) is faltering. The local am talk shows (Boyles especially) are hammering Beauprez on immigration. Something to do with the bank he owns (and his wife manages) accepting alternative forms of ID from immigrants.

The state GOP is limping along, the republican AG is a cartoon and the current term-limited republican gov is MIA. I feel VERY confident that Ritter will win handily, lest the national GOP comes in with a nasty ad blitz and turns up some astounding dirt.

Now if we can only get Bill Winter's numbers up against Tancredo. I live in Tancredo's district and though everyone I know is level-headed and voting D this year, Mad Tom is still way up in the polls. A real head-scratcher this one.

by JerryColorado 2006-09-12 08:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Governor Forecast 2006 Update

Jerry is right - the discussion in Colorado these days is whether Both ways Beauprez was just the rabbit in this race and will pull out for the bell lap to allow another contender to take a shot. None one is taking this really seriously but when the newspapers start to report your campaign is in serious trouble before October 1, the race is not competitive.

by tjlord 2006-09-13 07:18AM | 0 recs
It's kinda funnny

That the safest Democratic seats are in some of the rediest states in the county and the some of the Safest republican seats are in some of the bluest states in the country

by orin76 2006-09-12 09:09PM | 0 recs

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