51-46 is up by 5 ...

However 51-45, the un-typo'd poll results, is indeed up by 6.  

The Q-Poll data backs up a lot of conventional wisdom at least on this blog.  Lamont leads by 21 points among college graduates.  If family income is under $50 K, voters break towards Lieberman; over $50 K and voters break to Lamont. (Connecticut is a wealthy state with a high cost of living.)

The national ramifications of this are pretty clear.  If Lieberman loses, the DLC types among office holders will STFU.  A Lamont win not only stifles the talk but adds some spine to Democratic legislators in D.C.  Elizabeth Auster of the Cleveland Plain Dealer is not nearly as blunt but she blames this along with the distance Joe created from CT voters.

Ironically, Joe was elevated to celebrity and VP status simply because he was the most outspoken "moral" critic of Bill Clinton within the upper echelons of the Democratic Party.  Joe's unwillingness to allow criticism by Democrats of a Republican President is what has placed him in trouble.

One win transforms the political landscape nationally.  It earns respect in the way that close losses don't.  Close losses may get you more politeness from the establishment.  One win brings us into respect.

You guys are awfully happy about a poll that cuts Lamont's lead by more than half in just two days.  

Lamont's campaign has a faint odor of Howard Dean in Iowa to me ... slip sliding away.

That Holy Joe gets basically the same demographic splits as the Republicans do.

What a shocker. Color me stunned.

This is still good news. This is what the fourth poll showing Lamont ahead above the margin of error? How on Earth can you spin this as bad news for Lamont. I don't want to get over-confident, but this race is looking very, very good.

Finally a victory for the good guys.

I agree with David Kowalski, this victory will have far reaching implications...

But on an even more positive note, do we have any figures regarding the voter turn among demographics? By this I mean, do "educated" voters turn out at higher numbers than "un-educated" ones in Democratic primaries?

Because if they do...we may do even better tomorrow night.

Good luck everyone!

It may be because I am in the middle of reading What's the Matter with Kansas, but the I find these poll trends troubling.  The people who are trending towards Lieberman are the exact people progressives need to win over to start a new movement.  Yet these people are moving away from the more liberal candidate in the race towards the more conservative one.  

First things first which is to make sure Lamont win.  After that, some serious analysis needs to be done to understand this trend and determine what we need to do to get these people to start supporting progressive candidates.

Here's one sad but true element about this poll:

The people surging for Libermann are the least or less likely to vote.

I get tired of saying this, and some of you are probably tired of hearing it.  But the MOE for those subgroups has got to be pretty damned big.

Matt, I'll bet a $50 contribution to the campaign of your choice that NONE of those subgroup differences you mention here are statistically significant.  I'm not even sure the overall change from 54-41 to 51-45 is significant; I need to check the previous Q-poll to get the sample size and MOE.

Does this mean that all the talk about 'short ride for rape victims' Joe either

1) had NOT reached these people

2. the national NARAL etc endorsements mean more to them
   
3. the 'short ride' arg  hit a home run with them?

Or is it simply that Bill Clinton's visit meant a lot to women and low income people?     Or that Jackson/Sharpton meant a lot in terms of negative motivation for Joe voters?

The moderate and conservative Democratic women: This is very nearly the same group (married women) that was the real swing vote that put Bush over the top in 2004 (not so-called "values voters").
I'm very interested in why this demographic continues to lean to the right. Do warmongering Republican policies make them feel safer? Are they driven by fear? Are they more likely to defer to patriarchial men already in positions of authority?

this comment though feels good and grounded.

From Larkspur at http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/showDiary.do ?diaryId=2586

"I also attribute Lieberman's rise in the latest poll to the fact that all CT papers endorsed him since the last poll was taken, so he got instant media attention and the papers regurgitated Lieberman's talking points.  These endorsements most likely affected undecideds and those not paying much attention to the race."

It's not shocking. People like Clinton ust have been reassuring to this demographic. And they are also more likely to feel sorry for an incumbment. I don't have any hard facts to back up my guesses.

You guys are doing an awesome job. Just remember to focus on mobilising the converted to the polls instead of trying to convert fresh new people. It's too late for that.

From FDL

*xyz says:
August 7th, 2006 at 9:13 am
Possibly Significant News Regarding Lieberman (from ConnecticutBlog):

What is Joe up to now?

Team Joementum is up to something.

There are reports of something happening at the Lieberman office in Stamford and it involves the Secret Police and an inportant official from D.C.

I'll have more info soon. If anyone reading this is in Stamford right now, get down to Lieberman's office with a camera, take some photographs (and/or video) and get in touch with me.

Looking at the big picture, the two similar Q-Polls are the July 20 one with Lamont up 51-47 and the August 7 poll with Lamont up 51-45.  Within these similar numbers, the polls show:

The number of voters who might change has been cut in half from 19% to 10%.

Voters are fixed in concrete about Joe Lieberman.  Only two percent have no opinion or refuse to state.  Lamont has more room to go up as 18% fall into that category.  Lamont has shot up in his favorable rating from 26% on July 20 to 42% on August 7 without moving from 51%.  I read that as his vote solidifying.

Joe's options:

1) Go negative and try to nudge some more of the "mixed" opinion voters into his camp. (That's a 21% share of the total).  With only 10% of the voters undecided, most are likely here.

2) Go positive.  Joe might want to end with the warm fuzzies.  Same as number two.  

3) Concentrate on getting out his vote and forget the rest.  This seems like a good idea, frankly for an August primary.

Lamont's options:

1) More than 1 in 6 voters has no opinion of Ned Lamont.  The effort here to define himself as someone who will support traditional Democratic goals and listen to the voters is really good.  If this does not hit in the primary, he is strongly positioned for the general election.

2)  Stress the positive in a quickie.  He's got a 42-18 favorable rating among Democrats to a 40-34 rating for Lieberman.  There are good vibes here.

3) Get out the vote.

What's the MoE? 3%? 4.5%?