Reports of Lieberman's Ground Game Dissolution Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
by Matt Stoller, Sat Aug 05, 2006 at 08:29:26 AM EDT
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The idea that Lieberman axed his ground game is simply false. He's fighting, hard. I don't have great Lieberman sources, but I'm told that there is a collective sense of extreme dispair going on among Joe's allies right now, as his internal polls keep slipping measurably every single day. Political professionals from out of state are coming in to supervise the huge army of high school students he's put together, and it's not altogether clear that the local machine folks in the cities feel attended to by Lamont. Much of that is probably excessive pessimism on the part of worried Lamont supporters, but I don't really know.
My perspective is a bit skewed, and it's really hard, well more like impossible, to know where the numbers are going to end up and how the field campaigns are going. Since neither field director will give me numbers and since both play it close to the vest, much of what's coming out in the press is spin.
Here are my few anecdotal pieces of data that I do trust as real, since I saw them. I did a small amount of phone-banking yesterday among one of the more traditionally pro-Lieberman sub-groups, and found good support for Lamont. I talked to one woman who had signed up as a volunteer for Lieberman, but recently decided to switch to Lamont because of both the New York
Times endorsement and because her friends told her that Lieberman wasn't with the people anymore. She's going to church tomorrow, which she said leans Lieberman, and is going to try to convince people to vote for Lamont. My gut says a lot of this race is going to be decided tomorrow, in the conversations at churches in small towns all over Connecticut. Primary voters talk to each other, especially in a civically minded place like Connecticut, which is one reason it's been so tough for Joe to pull his 'low information voter strategy'.
Joe's GOTV operation is not dead. I was walking in New Haven last night back from Sullivan's (where bloggers are having parties every night from 9pm onward until Tuesday) and I found door-hangers lying on the ground. Those are the pictures you see in this post, and you can click on them if you want more detail. They are standard doorhangers. The excellent blogger/activist Maura in CT blogged about the bullshit nature of the 'Lieberman pulling his ground game' meme, and it appears she's absolutely right.
Now, here's the question. How is Lieberman actually doing his GOTV operation? Typically, GOTV is done through identifying voters over a long period of time, trying persuasion calls, canvassing, and mail to those who are wavering, and then making sure that the ones you know for sure are your voters get to the polls. There's an absentee ballot wrinkle in there as well, but that's the basic notion. You have to figure out how to contact voters and get the ones that are yours to the polls. This can build anywhere from 3-5 points on your effort, according to rules of thumb that I don't believe. Now what I think is going on in Lieberland is that, since he started his field late, he doesn't have great lists of his voters. What he's doing as a catch-up is large sample surveys of voters to identify his best sub-groups. He won't know who are his voters, but he'll know the type of voter who's most likely to vote for him, and he can direct his GOTV to that type of voter. The problem is that all the subgroups are in negative territory for Lieberman, so he can't actually bring out one subgroup indiscriminately without increasing Lamont's lead. Big problem.
The Lieberman campaign is probably been scrambling to update lists and identify voters through local contacts, phone-banks, canvassing, and any other manner possible. And he's doing a positive campaign on the air to raise his positives, and bringing in some surprising people this weekend to stump for him. Believe me, this is going to shock you if I can confirm it, though it won't shock all of you. Sorry to be cryptic there.
In terms of Lamont, Maura is saying that the Norwalk office needs volunteers. On the flip is information on how to get to Norwalk from New York City, by car or by public transportation. The office closes at 8pm. Democracy For New York City is organizing group outings tomorrow, leaving from Grand Station at 9:30am. Contact Heather Woodfield at hwoodfield@dfnyc.org to sign up.
If you're coming today, let them know how many people are coming, when you'll arrive, when you're leaving, and whether you have a car.
Email: rmcleod@nedlamont.com
LOCATION:
91 N Main St
Norwalk, CT 06854
DRIVING INSTRUCTIONS
Yahoo Maps is here: http://maps.yahoo.com/maps_result?addr=9
1+North+Main+St&csz=Norwalk%2C+CT+06
854&country=us
PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION:
Go to the Norwalk Station via the Metronorth line. The Train Schedule is here:
(http://www.mta.nyc.ny.us/mnr/html/planni
ng/schedules/index.html)
If you call that number or email and let the field office manager know when you are coming, he will have you picked up from the train station.
Tags: Connecticut, CT-Sen, Joe Lieberman, Ned Lamont (all tags)










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