CT-Sen: Expect High Turnout And A Very Close Election
by Chris Bowers, Sat Aug 05, 2006 at 09:15:39 AM EDT
I have looked at some numbers this morning, and I now think that this is going to be a very close election. Right now, in my opinion, Lamont is more likely to lose the primary than he is to win it by the new, CW, double-digit threshold necessary to knock out Lieberman once and for all. Basically, this is due to what looks to be very high voter turnout.
Due to the low information voters factor, analysts have always believed that higher turnout, which will bring in more low-information voters, will help Lieberman. This is similar to the problem Paul Hackett faced in the OH-02 last summer. In that election Hackett was focused on a "stealth" base turnout strategy that played on the idea that turnout in an August special election would be very low. This was a good idea in a heavily Republican district (OH-02 is the fifth most Republican district east of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon line). The Catch-22 of that election was that as it became a very close race, partially because netroots began buzzing about it non-stop during the two weeks prior to the election, it drew much higher media attention that ended up sparking much higher turnout. Thus, the more Hackett's strategy worked in making the race close, the more it led it its won destruction in driving attention to a suddenly close race.
A similar phenomenon is happening in Connecticut. The closer Ned Lamont appear to come to victory on August 8th, the more the media pays attention to what could potentially become a major event in recent American political history. The media attention n this race could now barely become any greater. It is now regularly among the top three U.S. stories on Google News, and at numerous times over the past month has been the number one U.S. story on Google News. Every major national news outlet, as well as every news outlet in Connecticut, has become obsessed with this story. The rather stunning amount of attention that has been paid to this race will drive up turnout. This will increase the number of low-information voters within the electorate, and that will help Joe Lieberman. That fact alone makes the polls less favorable to Ned Lamont that they currently appear to be.
But low information voters are not the only problem. Take a look at the numbers of new Democrats who have been created by this primary, and tell me that turnout won't be high:From May through Friday, 11,496 unaffiliated voters became registered Democrats. From May through the end of July, 10,344 new voters became registered Democrats, said Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz. "If you think about those Democrats, those are people who are obviously motivated to participate. That could have an impact on not only turnout, but election results," Bysiewicz said. Only around 130,000 Democrats voted in the 2004 presidential primary in Connecticut, so for roughly 22,000 people to register as Democrats since May 8th (the last day Republicans could switch to Dem), is astonishing. There is certainly no guarantee that these voters will trend Lieberman, since, as I mentioned, none of them were registered Republicans. Also, liberals, among whom Lamont currently holds a 2-1 advantage, have long had a history of registering and self-identifying as Independent, unaffiliated or Other Party rather than as Democrats (this is actually one of the reasons why Democrats do well among Independents). However, these rationalizations aside, there are reasons to be worried that on Election Day we will indeed see a very high concentration of low-information voters who are favorable to Lieberman, and many "new" Democrats who have crossed over to help out the conservative movement's "bi-partisan" cover boy.
Combine new voter registrations with low information voters with what is clearly a still massive Lieberman ground game--a ground game that analysts have said can add up to five point for Lieberman in this election--and suddenly you have an election within the margin of error. Throw in both public and internal polls that show the race closer than the 13 point Lamont lead from the Q-poll, and you have an election teetering on a knife edge. For Lamont backers, our concern right now should not be with blowing Lieberman out, but rather with winning this election at all. We can only do that if we get on the ground in Connecticut and help out. I will be arriving in Connecticut on Monday and right now I plan to stay through the final results. Even if I can't do much blogging when I am there, we need every last body we can to help out with the campaign. As one such body, I'll be on my way. Get your ass there too.
Due to the low information voters factor, analysts have always believed that higher turnout, which will bring in more low-information voters, will help Lieberman. This is similar to the problem Paul Hackett faced in the OH-02 last summer. In that election Hackett was focused on a "stealth" base turnout strategy that played on the idea that turnout in an August special election would be very low. This was a good idea in a heavily Republican district (OH-02 is the fifth most Republican district east of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon line). The Catch-22 of that election was that as it became a very close race, partially because netroots began buzzing about it non-stop during the two weeks prior to the election, it drew much higher media attention that ended up sparking much higher turnout. Thus, the more Hackett's strategy worked in making the race close, the more it led it its won destruction in driving attention to a suddenly close race.
A similar phenomenon is happening in Connecticut. The closer Ned Lamont appear to come to victory on August 8th, the more the media pays attention to what could potentially become a major event in recent American political history. The media attention n this race could now barely become any greater. It is now regularly among the top three U.S. stories on Google News, and at numerous times over the past month has been the number one U.S. story on Google News. Every major national news outlet, as well as every news outlet in Connecticut, has become obsessed with this story. The rather stunning amount of attention that has been paid to this race will drive up turnout. This will increase the number of low-information voters within the electorate, and that will help Joe Lieberman. That fact alone makes the polls less favorable to Ned Lamont that they currently appear to be.
But low information voters are not the only problem. Take a look at the numbers of new Democrats who have been created by this primary, and tell me that turnout won't be high:From May through Friday, 11,496 unaffiliated voters became registered Democrats. From May through the end of July, 10,344 new voters became registered Democrats, said Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz. "If you think about those Democrats, those are people who are obviously motivated to participate. That could have an impact on not only turnout, but election results," Bysiewicz said. Only around 130,000 Democrats voted in the 2004 presidential primary in Connecticut, so for roughly 22,000 people to register as Democrats since May 8th (the last day Republicans could switch to Dem), is astonishing. There is certainly no guarantee that these voters will trend Lieberman, since, as I mentioned, none of them were registered Republicans. Also, liberals, among whom Lamont currently holds a 2-1 advantage, have long had a history of registering and self-identifying as Independent, unaffiliated or Other Party rather than as Democrats (this is actually one of the reasons why Democrats do well among Independents). However, these rationalizations aside, there are reasons to be worried that on Election Day we will indeed see a very high concentration of low-information voters who are favorable to Lieberman, and many "new" Democrats who have crossed over to help out the conservative movement's "bi-partisan" cover boy.
Combine new voter registrations with low information voters with what is clearly a still massive Lieberman ground game--a ground game that analysts have said can add up to five point for Lieberman in this election--and suddenly you have an election within the margin of error. Throw in both public and internal polls that show the race closer than the 13 point Lamont lead from the Q-poll, and you have an election teetering on a knife edge. For Lamont backers, our concern right now should not be with blowing Lieberman out, but rather with winning this election at all. We can only do that if we get on the ground in Connecticut and help out. I will be arriving in Connecticut on Monday and right now I plan to stay through the final results. Even if I can't do much blogging when I am there, we need every last body we can to help out with the campaign. As one such body, I'll be on my way. Get your ass there too.
Tags: CT-Sen, Joe Lieberman, Ned Lamont, Senate 2006, Voter Turnout (all tags)
-----------
myDD - skin
-----------
24 Comments