Not that my opinion counts for much- but for the record, I got the point of your previous post to be let's not count a win, until we actually win. It was meant to keep people sober about the what ifs, to not get cocky, and to remain (whover is there locally) involved until the polls close on Tues. Also, for the record, I think other posters are lacking in political common sense, but this is just me. Who sits there a weekend before the actual election focusing on what's going right. in short, I wish more democrats would show a little less arrogance as your previous post did, and alittle more stick to the bottom line attitude that you were trying to convey. Finally, I don't think you need to explain yourself- Ithink people simply aren't willing to let reality into play- that right now we have a lot of what-ifs, and you were playing the bad side of the what ifs to keep peo motivated.

I predicted Lamont by 17% and I'm sticking with it.

And we're all out here hanging on by our fingernails here.

I appreciate what you are saying about numbers and possibilities. But Chris, my man think about this:

"If I was spinning, I was spinning by omission and by the pessimism the last several years of politics have beaten into me."

Look. You're a general, Man. You may not want to acknowledge that. But you are a very important leader in the movement.

As a general, you can benefit inwardly from the wisdom/pessimism learned through hard experience.

But you shouldn't show it, man. You can't lead your troops with bouts of pessimism.

"Let's not cause a fit of self-congratulation to result in a lack of much needed activism."

See, that's not the only alternative to this pessimistic spin by ommission. No one wants our leaders to start celebrating the win or encouraging a slackening of effort.

But there are ways to acknowledge and deal with threats and dnagers without showing pessimism. You can show full respect for Napoleon's Imperial Guard columns ... without inviting your infantry to give in to their own fears and pessimism.

You need to lead us with hope, man. Be realistic. Be tiough. Demand relentless effort. That's all cool. Remind us that these bastards have burned us over and over.

But funnel all that passion into a steady resolve under fire. Lead your troops with hope, man.

We're all behiund you guys. Go to CT and kick ass. We believe in what you're doing.

That it will be a miracle if Lamont pulls it off.

And he links to your earlier post for evidence.

Is that the message you want to send, Chris?

We need a miracle to win this one?

There is spinning, there is being spun and there is the cold, hard facts.

I didn't think you were spinning in your earlier post; I thought you were trying to stand still to get a clear look.

"If I was spinning, I was spinning by omission and by the pessimism the last several years of politics have beaten into me."

"Look. You're a general, Man. You may not want to acknowledge that. But you are a very important leader in the movement."

It's so obvious that it doesn't matter whether it's acknowledged or not.

Spinning has become so much a part of the political culture that, for 99% of politicos, it's done with as little awareness and effort as exhaling.  

Long exposure has caused me to skim right over it unless it's done so crudely as to cause nausea.

The Lamont field operation is an open question.  Lieberman is really really moving on GOTV.

I would love to see Joementum free to spend most of September and October stumping for Democratic senatorial candidates in closely contested races.  Start with Jack Carter in Nevada then hit places like Montana, Missouri and Tennessee.

I would love to see Joementum free to spend most of September and October stumping for Democratic senatorial candidates in closely contested races.

Only if you want them to lose.

Until a month ago I didn't think Lamont could win, so obviously I'm not in sync with this race. And primaries have never really been my focus, as opposed to November. However, if I had to guess I would expect the result to be closer than these polls.

Simple reason. Everything tends to drift back toward the beginning. I learned that in sports. I keep the preseason ratings in college football and basketball. You'd be shocked, in bowl games and the NCAA tournament, how often the team rated higher in preseason will defeat a supposedly superior opponent in the postseason. One of my friends makes a killing every year by retaining the early "marquee matchup" pointspreads from the late summer and using them to trump the actual numbers on game day. In other words, if a team was favored by 7 in late August for a game to be played in mid November, if the final number has switched dramatically based on current form, let's say to the other team favored by 3, my friend believes that original -7 was there for a reason, more representative of the true talent level and relative strength of the two teams than the new 3 suggests.

So does it really make sense an incumbent who led 65-19 will lose by double digits? I wouldn't wager on it either way but instinct tells me the guy who had 65% to begin with probably retains more strength than these new margins imply.

Obviously sports is not a perfect comparison. Athletics is ability, which is less likely to change significantly over the short term than opinion. But I've found some of the basics to be useful in transfer analysis.

Chris, I respect your pessimism, because we all know what's been happening the last few years to any liberal or progressive candidates, but I'd have to disagree with your gut feelings on this. I've actually been starting to feel really good over the last few months about where our country is headed, and obviously we have no election proof of that yet, but my gut feeling is that this November is going to be very good for us.

Anyway, I'm getting off topic; I'm also wondering if by the laws of probability, if you include all of the pro-Lieberman possibilities, don't you at least have to include a few pro-Lamont possibilities as well?

Great work blogging on all this, BTW.

My gut tells me Lamont by 60-40.