Bookmark the MyDD Senate forecast

It's back--the permanent Senate forecast. Although it took me all day to put this together, the hard work is done now. With this in place, now I can update the forecast nearly every day. This forecast will be updated regularly between now and November 7th. Until October 17th, I will use registered voter polls instead of likely voter polls where possible. I will also continue to add features, such as local blogs covering each race, and ways you can volunteer to help each campaign. If you can think of more features to add, just list them in the comments. I'm moving directly into working on the permanent Governor's forecast for tomorrow, so expect light posting from me until I have that ready. This stuff takes a while.

Overall: Republicans currently control the Senate 55-43-2. Democrats need at least a net total of six seats in order to take control. One incoming Independent, Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has indicated he will caucus with the Democrats. One Independent in a dogfight, Joe Lieberman (CfL-CT), currently indicates that he will caucus with Democrats.

Thirty-second forecast, August 21: I currently project Republicans to hold the Senate, 51-48-1, with Democratic pickups in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana and Connecticut. Dick Cheney will be the tie-breaking vote. I do not project any Republican pickups at this time.

Complete details on all competitive races can be found in the extended entry. Campaigns are ranked by tiers, and then ranked within tiers. If I do not list a race, I do not consider that race to have any realistic chance of switching parties this year.

Democratic Targets

Lean Democratic
1. Rhode Island. (Democrat: Sheldon Whitehouse). All trends point blue. Chafee could very well lose his primary to Laffey, which would end the race right then and there. Even if Chafee wins the primary, Whitehouse has significantly out-raised Chafee (and Laffey is nearly equal to Chafee). Whitehouse has also pulled ahead in all polls. Given current trend lines and being squeezed form both sides, in one of the bluest states in the country it is hard to see how Chafee can make up any ground. If Chafee is going to dig into his family fortune, he better start now. This seat looks good.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign.
Latest polls: Rasmussen, August 3rd: Whitehouse 44%, Chafee 38%; Brown University, June 26: Whitehouse 38%, Chafee 37%

2. Pennsylvania. (Democrat: Bob Casey) Bob Casey needs to take this campaign off his front porch. While both sides had been expecting this race to become closer for some time, the recent wave of polls that all showed the race closer than it had been, the more disturbing trend for Casey is that his name ID has actually dropped 9% since February 2005 in the Q-poll. Still, with Rendell cruising to victory and with the Green Party almost certainly off the ballot, Casey should be fine once he finally goes on air, but it would be nice if he seemed to have a plan besides going on air.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign.
Latest polls: Quinnipiac, August 13, Casey 48%, Santorum 42%; Strategic Vision (R), August 13, Casey 48%, Santorum 41%; Rasmussen (R), August 3, Casey 50%, Santorum 39%; Muhlenberg, August 3rd, Casey 45%, Santorum 39%.

Toss-ups
3. Ohio. (Democrat: Sherrod Bown). I agonized over whether to put this race in the "lean Democratic" category, but I just couldn't quite do it yet. While Sherrod Brown now leads in all polls, while DeWine's approval rating is under 50%, and while Ohio is ripe for Democrats this year, Brown just does not lead by enough in the reliable polls, is still over $2M behind in cash on hand, and DeWine's negative approval is too new a phenomenon. I just cannot be an honest election forecaster and say Brown has a clear edge here--yet. But this race is close to moving up a category.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Rasmussen (R), July 27, Brown 44%, (Columbus Dispatch, July 20 DeWine 42%; Brown 45%, DeWine 37%; Survey USA, June 13, Brown 48%, DeWine 39%.

4. Montana: (Democrat: Jon Tester). This is a tight race. Tester is rising on people-power, and Burns is faltering in front of the media's eyes. However, Burns maintains a significant fundraising advantage, and the polls are tight. Trends are clearly toward Tester, but money and the conservative nature of Montana keep this race in the toss-up category.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest Polls: Rasmussen (R), August 8: Tester 47%, Burns 47%; Lake Research Partners (D), June 26: Tester 43%, Burns 42%

5. Missouri: (Democrat: Claire McCaskill). This race has been deadlocked for some time, and there are no signs of that breaking. McCaskill is slightly ahead in the polls and somewhat noticeably ahead in favorable ratings, but Talent has gobs and gobs of cash. I expect this race to go down to the wire.
Money race: Open Secrets on the campaign
Latest Polls:Survey USA, August 14: McCaskill 47%, Talent 46%; Rasmussen (R), August 15: Talent 46%, McCaskill 44%, Talent 42%; Research 2000, June 22: McCaskill 49%, Talent 43%

Lean Republican
6. Virginia (Democrat: Jim Webb). This race is moving up fast, and has the potential to reach the "toss-up" category before long. Without even going on air, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Webb within only five points, as the Virginia public sours on Allen's increasingly negative public image. People-power is propelling another candidate forward, and right now only a colossal fundraising gap probably stands in the way of Webb and a toss-up.
Money race: Open Secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Survey USA, August 20, Allen 48%, Webb 45%; Rasmussen (R), August 16: Allen 47%, Webb 42%; Mason-Dixon, July 27, Allen 48%, Webb 32%; Zogby, July 15, Allen 47%, Webb 37%; Benson Strategy Group (D), June 27, Allen 46%, Webb 39%

7. Tennessee: (Democrat: Harold Ford). With a new scandal hanging over Bob Corker's head, Harold Ford has found new life in this open seat race. Still, the latest poll shows Corker ahead 48% to 42%, and Corker's self-financed campaign will give him almost unlimited funds. Corker remains favored, but this race is not over by a long shot.
Money Race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Rasmussen (R), August 10, Corker 48%, Ford 42%; Mason-Dixon, July 19, Corker 49%, Ford 36%; Tenn Poll, July 16, Corker 42%, Ford 35%

Likely Republican
8. Nevada. (Democrat: Jack Carter). Defying odds, this campaign continues to stay on the board. Rasumssen has movement-candidate Jack Carter within only 7 points of Ensign, and even Mason-Dixon, which still shows Ensign up comfortably, has the race much closer than it was before. I am keeping my eye on this one, as I still believe it has the potential to move up.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Mason-Dixon, August 8, Ensign 54%, Carter 33%; Rasmussen (R), July 31, Ensign 46%, Carter 39%

9. Arizona. (Democrat: Jim Pederson). Here at MyDD, we had a lot of hope for this race early on, but despite already being on the air, Jim Pederson is having a very difficult time getting over the hump. Pederson is rich, but Kyl has a large enough warchest to more than deal with any self-financing. This race also seems to be suffering formt he opposite problem that we see in Nevada: lot of establishment support, but little movement support. A look at the top few races shows that the campaigns where we are doing the best are campaigns where we have both.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: BRC, July 21, Kyl 45%, Pederson 27%; Rasumssen (R), July 18, Kyl 53%, Pederson 34%; Survey USA, July 17, Kyl 52%, Pederson 40%

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Republican Targets

Lean Democratic
1. New Jersey, (Democrat: Robert Menendez). If this is the closest thing Republicans have to a pick-up--and right now it is--then Republicans are in a lot of trouble this cycle. While Menendez's position is not perfectly solid, he does look pretty good. Kean actually has an equal higher name ID than Menendez, and polls in New Jersey have notoriously undercounted Democrats for years (remember how the 2004 presidential race and 2001 and 2005 Governor's races were supposed to be close in New Jersey?). Combine this with the pathetic state of the New Jersey Republican Party and the extraordinarily high level of anti-Bush sentiment in the northeast, and I feel quite confident in Menendez's chances. Oh yeah, Menendez has $5M more than Kean too.

Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Strategic Vision (R), August 13, Menendez 42%, Kean 40%; Rasmussen (R), July 25, Menendez 44%, Kean 38%; FDU, July 16, Menendez 43%, Kean 40%; Monmouth, July 13 Menendez 38%, Kean 37%; Q-poll, July 12, Kean 40%, Menendez 38%.

2. Washington, (Democrat: Maria Cantwell). Cantwell still has a clear edge in this race. Polls show a fairly close race, and McGavick will be able to self-finance despite being way down in fundraising. Still, Cantwell has a lot of money, and a lead in a significantly blue state in a bad year for Republicans. Republican polling firm Strategic Vision aside, Cantwell still looks pretty good.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Strategic Vision, (R) July 23, Cantwell 48%, McGavick 44%; Rasmussen (R), July 17, Cantwell 48%, McGavick 37%; Elway Poll, July 13, Cantwell 47%, McGavick 33%

3. Maryland (Democrats: Ben Cardin, Kweisi Mfume). Mfume's lower poll standing and far lower cash flow could make this race closer, or even a toss-up, if he wins the primary. In truth, however, I don't think it really matters who wins the Democratic primary. In a year this bad for Republicans, how many undecideds can Michael Steele really expect to get in the deep blue state of Maryland? This is not even to mention that Steele is behind in the polls despite having far higher name ID than either Mfume or Cardin (especially Cardin). Whoever wins the primary will almost certainly take a double-digit lead from the media boost, and then may never have to look back. Still, this campaign isn't quite "likely Democratic" just yet. We have to wait and see what things look like a week or so after the primary.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Rasmussen (R), August 9th, Cardin 47%, Steele 42%, Mfume 46%, Steele 44%; Washington Post, June 25, Mfume 46%, Steele 43%; Cardin 49% Steele 39%

Likely Democratic
4. Minnesota (Democrat: Amy Klobuchar). This race is barely on the board at all anymore. Polls shows excellent news for Klobuchar. Also, did we ever really expect Mike Kennedy, who has consistently under performed Bush in the past, to somehow win in Minnesota when Bush is at 34% approval here? I think mainly I am leaving it on the board so people don't ask where I am ranking it these days.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Rasmussen (R), August 1, Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 38%; Survey USA, July 24, Klobuchar 47%, Kennedy 42%; Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal (D), July 20, Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 34%; Star Tribune, July 11, Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 31%

5. Michigan (Democrat: Debbie Stabenow). I had taken this race off the board, but a post-primary bump for Republican Bouchard has made me put it back on. In fact, I now rank it as more of a threat than Minnesota. Stabenow is still up more than 8-1 in cash, and she also maintains decent leads in polls in a fairly blue state in a bad year for Republicans. While the post-primary bump has made me put this back up on the board, I don't expect it will stay here for long.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: EPIC / MRA, August 14 Stabenow 54%, Bouchard 42%; Rasmussen (R), August 10, Stabenow 49%, Bouchard 44%; Survey USA, August 7, Stabenow 48%, Bouchard 41%; Detroit Free Press, July 12, Stabenow 49%, Bouchard 29%

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Other
Connecticut: (Democrat: Ned Lamont). This is one race where I don't give a rat's butt what the polls say. In less than four months, Lamont has gained 73 points on Lieberman among Democrats, moving from 65-19 down to 63-35 ahead. I fully expect that Lamont will continue to rise, and that Lieberman will also fall behind among Independents. Further, despite the full support of the Republican establishment, I do not expect Lieberman will be able to maintain a 75-13-10 lead among Republicans (that lead actually puts Lamont in second among Republicans, btw). I believe Ned Lamont will win this race, but even if he doesn't, Lieberman has still promised to caucus with Democrats.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Polls: Quinnipiac, August 14: Lieberman 49%, Lamont 38%, Schlesinger 4%; Rasumssen (R), August 9, Lieberman 46%, Lamont 41%, Schlesinger 6%

Hawaii. Democrats: Daniel Akaka, incumbent, and Ed Case, challenger. Yeah, I am clearly taking sides in this primary in favor of Akaka by linking to Case's website. This is a very late primary (September 23rd) where the winner will go on to an easy victory in the general election. It goes off the board as soon as the primary is over. Akaka has the edge in polls (but not by much in some) and money, but expect this race to be close.
Money race: Open secrets on the campaign
Latest polls: Rasmussen (R), August 7, Akaka 47%, Case 45%; Honolulu Advertiser Hawaii Poll, June 27: Akaka 51%, Case 40%

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Off the board
Democratic held seats: Bingham (NM), Byrd (WV), Carper (DE); Clinton (NY); Conrad (ND), Feinstein (CA), Kennedy (MA), Kohl (WI), Nelson (FL), Nelson (NE)
Independent held seats: Open (VT) is project to go easily to Sanders (I-VT)
Republican held seats: Hatch (UT), Hutchison (TX), Lott (MS), Lugar (IN), Snow (ME), Craig (WY). Note: I will have links to all of our challengers in these seats up soon, even if I consider them extreme longshots.