If Casey wins, we lose, but he'll probably just lose.

This was a great piece.

Among other things, it made me curious to know who is in the wings for the Dems--who is in position to actually take up these roles and has both the right tactics and strategy vision?

I mean, if the wins in Nov are not big enough to keep Schumer and Emanuel on for another round--who takes their place and are they any better?

The Netroots should get behind Jack Carter NOW and help to make him a more viable candidate.

I am a Democratic committeeperson in a philadelphia suburb in the closely contested PA-06 district, and this is a very good post.  That being said, the part about Casey losing a big lead, this was not unexpected, and I don't know anyone who did not see this coming.  I still think and hope he will win,(I think the powerful SE PA Rendell turnout machine, especially in the city of Philadelphia will put him over the top) but even though polls were showing 20 point leads and what not, this was never seen as a slam dunk except by MyDD and SwingStateProject.  Santorum has continously had at least double the money and has always been a great campaigner where Casey obviously is not and never has been.
On another note, I have faith that generally speaking Casey will turn out to be a very loyal Democrat.  He has his conservative values, pro-life and pro-gun being the obvious, but he grew up a hunter and a Catholic, the hunter is one -thing, but being a Catholic and following his faith, I can respect that.  I think he is against the death-penalty as well so it does seem to be a religious belief.  Well anyway, like I said I have faith he will turn out to be a very loayl Democrat.  He really seemed to be going after Gov. Ridge when Casey was Auditor General and Ridge was extremely popular in the state, and even more so, if memory serves correctly, he really showed me party loyalty when he lost the 2002 gubernatorial primary to Ed Rendell and even though he social values were seemingly closer to the Republican named Fisher, (the Attorney General at the time) he tirelessly campaigned and raised money for Rendell right up until the election.  So please everyone, can we please give the man a chance to be a good Dem in the Senate, and if I am wrong I will be happy to vote against him in the primary in 2012.

If Schumer and Rahm get the Lamont & Tester voters message they'll act and act soon. In that case its likely the Dem party will run a well orchestrated campaign that will be a referendum on Bush, the rubber-stamp Republicans in Congress and the Cheney neo-cons. It will then frame accountability with the current "stay-the-course" disaster and be on the side of 60% of America - leading to a tidal wave election.

But the reality is going to be that a leopard can't change its spots. The DC establishment crowd will do what it has done in every election cycle. Waste its money on "loser" election strategies and messaging very similar to the Loserman camapign. Rove will run circles around them.

The only saving grace is that there is an outside chance that despite their loser campaign strategy the public is so fed up that they may vote the Dems into a house majority. The problem with this is that the Schumer/Rahm DC establishment crowd will believe it is a vindication of them.

whose thesis strongly implies that voters shouldn't bother to differentiate between the parties because Democrats are weak and have no ideas.

This is my fear here in IL-06. I don't see enough contrast with Roskam, who is a giant right-wing extremist but is being treated like just another GOP candidate with the "he's corrupt" story line. The accountability argument, as put forward in Chis' post a couple days ago based on the MyDD/Courage campaign polling in CA-50, would be a no brainer here. But again, we haven't heard much beyond ATM and stem cells - issues lists - that don't show a clear difference between what a Democrat in this seat would mean from years of GOP control.

Schumer is best at bake sales and retirement homes.  He has no skill as an orator or as a front man.  I think he is surprised to be in a position of power and frankly doesn't know how to handle it.

I'm hoping that we end up with Casey rebounding in the same way as Rendell

That is, if Rendell doesn't start praising Santorum again first.

(1) It is a tidal wave election.  The massive public revulsion shows that.

(2) But surfers can easily wipe out.  The bigger the wave, the bigger the wipeout.

(3) So, as you intimate toward the end, the big question is, will the guys and gals who are actually running hug the wave?  Or will they follow the frothy leaders into wipeout city???

It's really just that simple.

Kawabunga, dude!

The Democrats are going to LOSE in November. Here's why: They won't even support their own candidates, so busy are they in supporting GOP candidates like Joe Lieberman. I haven't given a dime to Democrats this year; I gave the limit in 2004 to Kerry/Edwards and local candidates.

But, I'm a very bitter (soon to be "former") Democrat now.

A former precinct chair for the party, I'm now refusing to give ANY money to ANY Democratic candidate. This is the future of the Democrats. There will be many more of me to come.

Whatever gains are made in November will be lost later anyway. Why?

Because Democratic Senators aren't even forced to support the Democratically elected DEMOCRATIC PARTY CANDIDATE IN CONNECTICUT. It's undermined party morale at the rank and file level. No wonder no one will vote for us. We won't even vote for ourselves!

Yes, I've called Sen. Landrieu, Sen. Schumer and Sen. Reid to get on board with the party, to get it together. I've told Sens. Schumer and Reid in "frank" language, to "herd the Senate cats" into line on Lamont. I've written to Dr. Dean and implored him to pass along that rank and file Dems are disgusted and ready to bail on the party altogether over the obstructionism and the support for the GOP candidate, Joe Lieberman. He's committed to "caucus with the democrats?"

Well, my question is: WHO WOULD WANT HIM?

Clearly, Democratic Senators are having a difficult time supporting their party candidates. Obviously, it's more important to the Democrats to have their CORPORATE SPONSORS on board than it is to have voters (even Democrats!) on board in November.

I'm completely disgusted with this party. They are L_O_S_E_R_S.

"Lose" is defined as: Losing the one opportunity in a decade to become the majority party in either house or senate.

This will be the defining moment for the Democratic Party such that they will LOSE definitively the opportunity to become the majority party. If the Democrats do not become the majority party in either house or senate in '06, that is it. End of story. They won't pick up any more seats for '08. They won't have candidates who are willing to run in '08 other than the old standby candidates, because the party doesn't support it's NEW CANDIDATES elected by Democrats.

Chris Matthew said on Hardball the other night, after viewing Lieberman's new ad: "I see dead people."

Well, "I see dead people" too. And, they're all in the Democratic Party.

Shame about it; but there you go. You can dream and fantasize and enjoy your delusions about November. But the Dems will lose; the GOP will win, and the reason will be that we don't even support OUR OWN--unless it's our GOP own.

Ford has a slim chance. Carter has zero chance.

I've become increasingly uncomfortable dismissing Carter's chances on liberal blogs since he's obviously a great guy and his daughter has been active on Kos and elsewhere. But come on. After looking at the primary results last night I'm just going to say it when it needs to be said. Anyone who thinks Carter has even a 1% chance is remarkably unaware of Nevada politics and the makeup of the state.

How can he get a margin in Clark County over Ensign, who used to represent Las Vegas as congressman in district 1? That's the district Shelly Berkley holds now, winning it after Ensign abandoned the seat to challenge Harry Reid in '98, losing by 400 votes in a statewide hand recount. That is my district and it's hugely Democratic. A Republican can only win that district if he's got a base in Clark County, which Ensign does.

We are stuck with John Ensign until an extraordinary Democratic candidate comes along, or if he decides to leave the seat. Oscar Goodman would have made the race very competitive but he would have been an underdog. Carter will get blitzed outside Clark County. He would need at least a +6 coming out of Las Vegas and probably closer to +10 or +12. Meanwhile, he'll be lucky to be even in Clark County.

Dina Titus has much more of a chance in the gov race. She is a terrific debater who would thrill the netroots Democrats via her dialogue if she ever got on the national stage. A true progressive bulldog. She's honed her speaking skills through nearly 30 years as a political science professor, currently at UNLV. That race with Gibson was competitive until she swamped him in two standard format televised debates. Jim Gibbons no doubt will want as few debates as possible.

As far as a tidal wave, I think we'll do very well in a second term midterm but the national advantage is somewhat limited by these factors:

* Vote against is not dependable or robust. Our party favorability numbers are not high enough and the alternative message is fuzzy at best

* Republican GOTV has been improving every year

* 9/11 and national security fear is still a factor in federal races. Although there are excellent signs in the state polls that women are returning to our side. If the gender gap reasserts itself among white women who veered briefly to become security moms, we indeed win big in '06, and look great heading into '08.

 The DSCC will pay lip service to Ned Lamont, while covertly supporting Lieberman.

 Lieberman will attack Democrats viciously and go easy on Republicans, weakening Democrats running nationwide. Lamont will fight back strongly, but will be engulfed by nastier swiftboating than John Kerry ever knew. The news media is 24/7 pro-Lieberman.

 The Democrats get slaughtered nationwide. Tester ekes out a win in Montana, with that being the only bright spot for the party.

 The DCCC and the DSCC blames it all on Howard Dean.

 

What a bunch of defeatists.  So much easier to kvetch than wprk for a Dem victory.

Oh I'm so shocked.

The Democrats in DC will once again invent a new way to raise and spend a record amount of money and lose thanks to their own befuddled priorities, and more concerns about cocktail parties and the DC life than getting elected and DOING something....

What a shock! My goodness! Maybe they should export their ability to screw up to other countries as a way of defeating them, so we can stop fighting wars. Just have Mark Pryor tell the terrorists how to operate and they'll be befuddled losers in a matter of months.

Supposedly the Democratic leadership is comprised of very smart people.  If we assume that this is true and they are not doing what the whole world knows must be done to have a fighting chance and even win, then the leaders don't want to win.  Given the purposely inept leadership of the Democrats, the only way to get the nation back on the correct track is for the Republicans who care to rebel against their leadership.

I don't know how working hard to get a Democratic victory will help if the leadership has no real desire to support the Party.  By the way, I understand that RE will give up his DCCC position after the 06 election (I can't give a reference, just an answer to a question I asked on another site).

Don't talk to me.....Gov. Ed Rendell is the one who can't help but heap praise on Rick InSanetorum

The Democrats are going to do well this November wether or not anyone here wants to admit it.

I hate it when you're right.

Especially this right.

About things that are maddeningly difficult to fix.

I think you're wrong about Casey's werewithall to be a Lieberman-level thorn.   He's about as strong an anti-choicer as you're going to find.  He has a family history of working against the party when it suits him politically and ideologically.  I think he carries a huge grudge.  He'll be worse than Lieberman.   I'd worry more about it but I'm certain that he's going to lose.  Then he'll run for Governor and I'll be very afraid.