Second Poll Pegs Dems' Ballot Lead at 18 Percent

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Aug 11, 2006 at 04:51:57 AM EDT

For those who remain skeptical about the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll released yesterday showing the Democrats maintaining a record 18-point generic congressional ballot lead, an Ipsos poll commissioned by the Associated Press seems to provide some confirmation.

On the generic question of whether voters would back the Democrat or Republican, 55 percent of registered voters chose the Democrat and 37 percent chose the Republican, a slight increase for Democrats from last month.

According to the AP/Ipsos poll, President Bush's approval rating has dropped all of the way down to it's May low of 33 percent. More worrisome for the White House and Republicans in Congress, close to one in five voters (19 percent) who supported Bush's reelection bid in 2004 plan to vote Democratic this fall. These numbers significantly undercut the internal Republican polling and memo obtained yesterday by US News (.pdf) which showed Republican voters excited to vote and prepared to support GOP candidates by an 84 percent to 6 percent margin.

Tags: Bush Approval, Generic Congressional Ballot, House 2006, Senate 2006 (all tags)

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Shadow_head_small
Re: Second Poll Pegs Dems' Ballot Lead at 18 Perce

Just as a note of caution, it is not totally clear to me why Bush's numbers would have been back up over the last month (at the outset of the the fighting in Lebannon) and back up now (prior to this  latest terror threat).  One theory around Bush's slowly rising approval rating up until this point could have been that voters were increasingly tuning in to the fall elections and turning their anger away from Bush and towards those members of the GOP where anger could make a difference.

That is one theory for how you could have this almost parralell increase in both Bush's numbers and Congressional Democrats' numbers.  Just a theory.

But then these latest numbers seem to suggest that just plain anger is just plain anger and that it is turning in to a change mood.  

I do think it is too early to start tying the Lamont vicotry to these poll numbers or speculating what the impact of the terror threats will be.  Especially when we have two Bush backed wars in the middle east spinning out of control.

Who knows, maybe it was the doping scandals in cycling that pushed everyone over the edge for change.

by Orlando 2006-08-11 05:48AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Dead Cat Bounce

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/ graphic-approval_files/pollkatzmainGRAPH ICS_8911_image001.gif

Too much attention was paid to a couple of Fox polls that had Bush at 40 & 41% and to some Gallup results (which consistently have Bush at better numbers than the mean). The trend shows him bottoming out at about 33% and rising to 36%.

While Ipsos generally has tracked Bush at slightly below trend, it has never been that far off, and given the sharp dropoff in Fox (which tends to track Bush at the top end of trend) in really does look like Bush has stalled somewhere around 35%.

If the above chart were a stock chart I don't think many people would be going long on Bush. The 'rise' in his numbers is mostly a matter of selective reporting, he just bounced off the bottom.

by Bruce Webb 2006-08-11 06:27AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Yo! Karl....

Karl!

Yo time is up Mr. Pigboy.

Don't let the lid on the dustbin of history whap yer in yer fat ass.

As fer Lebanon, the British terror plot and all the rest?

People are sick and tired of yer phony 'Wah on Tehhah' they see you aren't actually doing anything except waving the bloody flag of 9/11.

If we're 'fighting them over there so we don't have to fight them over here' how come they keep getting closer and closer?

The day they succeed is the day The Republican Party dies.

by Pericles 2006-08-11 06:04AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Platform

I think that you are going to hear lots of clamoring for the Democrats to come up with a platform.  We have a platform, it's called change.

As in:

"It's time for a change"

or

"Change versus more of the same"

by Ephus 2006-08-11 07:14AM | 0 recs

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