In the past, I have been critical of excessively negative forecasts.

This time, however, I say, "Amen!" I think this post is entirely appropriate.

Rove is going to hit us with a ton of bricks. We need to prepare for it.

My diary earlier today was along these lines.

a lot more yard sings

Great typo!!

I had a wonderful image of candidates standing in the suburban backyards of supporters, strumming guitars and singing Kumbaya, Michael Row the Boat Ashore and the campaign's official song.

This is one way for us little guys to make a difference.  A million of us doing this would change the landscape, but what about 100 of us in NC?

My scorecard here.

Oops, haven't done today's yet!

Day 89 - Learn Your Election Deadlines

Monday, September 18
First day to request absentee ballots by mail
Friday, October 13
Voter registration deadline for November 7 General Election. Forms must be
postmarked or delivered in person by 5:00 p.m. today.
Also, last day to change party affiliation before November 7 General Election.
Wednesday, October 18
Deadline for submitting originals of faxed voter registration forms in order to vote
in November 7 General Election
Thursday, October 19
One-stop absentee voting begins for General Election
Sunday, October 22-Tuesday, November 7
48-Hour Reports due from committees that receive contributions of $1,000 or more
during this timeframe
Monday, October 30
Third Quarter Plus Reports due
Tuesday, October 31
Last day to request absentee ballots in writing (exception due to sickness or
disability)
Thursday, November 2
Observer lists due to county boards of elections
Saturday, November 4
One-stop absentee voting ends.
Monday, November 6
Mailed absentee ballots must be received in BOE office by 5:00 p.m.
Deadline to request absentee ballots for sickness/disability is 5:00 p.m.
Tuesday, November 7
General Election Day

We have won some important victories this year in the primary but none of it means a damn thing if we don't finish the job and win on Nov 7.

Great, great post about what the next couple of months are going to be like.

Exactly.  We're flying high right now, but this won't last- the Republican campaign machine is assessing the situation and determining the best course of action.  

Right now it's August, which is when this is all going to begin- August tends to be a lazy month, a month full of slow news days, and it's before the traditional start of the campaign season (which is around Labor Day).  This was when the Swift Boat Veterans aired their commercials and smeared their way into campaign infamy in 2004.

And we've already begun to see the GOP's strategy in the way they're talking about the CT primary and the way they're using the recently-foiled airline plot for their own political gain.  They're going to start firing the guns of August, and we have to be ready.

The GOP will do anything, anything, no matter how immoral, unethical, craven, or unconscionable to hold onto power.  Expect a long a bitter campaign season-- but don't be disheartened.  Every time they hit us, let's hit back.  Every time they try to knock us down, let's get back up.  Every time they try to kill our morale, let's rally around our candidates and help them win.  

Every time they try to destroy the Democratic party, let's stand behind it even more.

Courage, America.  Courage!

I would add- GOTV. Turn out was great for Laomt, but is there a similar grassroot effort being built over the next few months in every competitive race in the country??? As you and others have commented- Lamont started back in the spring. I understand that the DNC is doing its part among others- but are the campaigns in the various districts and the senate candidates focusing on GOTV as well? Afterall, theya re closest to the ground and represent the frontline - right?

At Yearly Kos Peter Daou warned of the danger of thinking that the left can do something that the right cannot. This is true now more than ever, and it is important that posts like this keep us grounded in that reality.

There is much wisdom in Chris'es post.  It never, ever pays to underestimate your opponent.  I believe there is a premature feeling of triumphialism among some.  Optimism is fine.  We know, however, from long and bitter experience that our opponents have tricks up thier sleeve.    

One thing you didn't mention.  There will most certainly be more bad news from Iraq.  I also suspect that the IDF is about to get in over their heads in Lebanon, which will probably have the effect of making things look even worse in Baghdad.  There is also apparently bad news coming on the economy as well.  

Regarding #2 Why can't Dems compete in the communications game?  What's holding us back.  Clearly, we don't have a FOX News or talk radio shows to compare with the right, but why can't we craft and coordinate compelling messages?

We have enough think tanks to compete.  Why can't we get progressive pundits on to shows or news shows or quoted?  It's PR 101, something I've been doing for 30 years.  Why do you think it's so hard?

What infrastructure gains have we made?

www.CommonwealthCommonsense.com

I understood the 50 state strategy to be more long term in its implementation than this election cycle. What I mean is that I understood it to be putting coordintators in states to do the work of rebuilding the party in those states. I also understood- and maybe I am wrong- that the thing with Lamont was that he id'ed his likely voters early on and aggressive pursued them to come to the polls. I suppose my point is that whereas 50 state is something I believe in, I am not sure if it matches up perfectly with what is going on even further down the line at the grass roots of each district race. What sort of coordination is going on between the DNC and the individual candidate efforts using the coordinators?? Thats the kind of thingI think would be good to know. I read elsewhere- for example- that a problem that I faced in 2004, had reared its head this year with a lack of clear coordination between various progressive and Democratic resources which was leading to confusion. I would think the best peo suited to utilize the resources are those who are working with the candidates on a local level??

The closest election cycle that this reminds me of is 1986. That was the year that the Democrats won everything that was on the ballot.

Wankers!

this is really good to hear. thx

...my local paper (Fargo Forum) printed an editorial that was totally parroting the republican line of dems in disarray after Lamont to consign them to the political wilderness.

So I wrote up this letter, what do you think? Yes I did steal the mutually agree upon line from Chris Bowers. But it's a good one.

The Forum claims that Ned Lamont's primary victory has divided Democrats and threatens to consign the party to the political wilderness. This troubles me because these assertions are completely unsupported. I understand editorials are not written at the level of journalistic pieces but I hold the Forum to a higher standard.

That sounds like an ideal we should strive for to me.

Any suggestions?

It is EXTREMELY important to keep on the Media's tail.   Do not let them get away with a single lie or distortion.    Call them on it all.

Remember there are those out there who believe everything they read, so it is up to us to set the facts out there.

Let's have our OWN October surprise!   Maybe plan a huge national Anti-War demonstration one more time.      

One thing that may help the Democrats this year is the simple fact that people want to be on a winning team.  There will always be the die-hard Cubs fan, but there are quite a bit more fair weather fans.  People see that one party or another may be doing well and may drift from side to side.

I suspect that this is how younger people pick an initial ideology.  That, or you become so disgusted by the behavior of one that you gravitate to the opposite party (as shown by how young people are drifing to the Democrats).

Expect a bunch of GOP websites to suddenly go down during the last days of the campaign.  That smear worked pretty good for Lieberman in closing the gap.

i would look for the gap to narrow especially in pennsylvania.  santorum is now at -6% and closing.

casey has exactly zero "fire in the belly" and still reads off index cards.  if you are going to run successful insurgent candidacies against republican incumbents, it would help if we were able to at least see their breath in a mirror!

Excellent post. I'm not a conspiracy guy so #5 is the only thing I would dismiss. What was the October surprise in 2002 or 2004? I kept reading nonsense on other sites, like Bin Laden was being held and would be unveiled like King Kong a few days before the election. Bin Laden did release the tape but no indication Bush or Rove had anything to do with it, or the timing.

I'll continue to argue neither party really leads by 12 or 18 points, just like no presidential nominee in this polarized era truly has a 6 or 8 point advantage. Even if the polls all insist as such, the November voting won't play out that way. Just give me the national number that Lamont received, roughly 52%, and I'll take my chances.

The danger here is media BS, acceptance of the current phony margins then claims of Republican momentum once the poll numbers naturally tighten.

I agree with jiacinto it's a lot like 1986, more similar there than the typical comparison to 1994. For one thing, that was Reagan's second term midterm, the last time Democrats ran against that scenario. The problem here is fewer vulnerable seats are avaliable than '86. We knocked out 7 senatorial incumbents that year, and an amazing 15 senate races were won with 55% or less.

Thanks Chris. That needed saying. No resting on laurels and for god's sake, don't anyone start getting cocky.

But the one bright spot in the mess the Republicans have made of the world is that their policies and positions have been so thoroughly discredited by now, there's no real need to even treat them as serious arguments anymore. And people shouldn't. The point we can keep making over and over in response to pretty much any right wing talking point you care to name is that we've heard them all before and look where it's gotten us.

The point about gas prices is well taken though. Not that I necessarily think this election is going to be about gas prices, but keep in mind that elections in this country happen in the lull between the summer road trip season and the winter heating season. Gasoline prices naturally take a dip in the Fall so look for Republicans to be lining up to take credit for that. (Hey, it's something!)

It most definitely can be changed, but as "Bergs" mentions later on in these comments you have to be aggressive.

I think the problem may also be that the Dems lack senior spokemen who are really good at it.  Emmanuel may be a great strategist, but he's has a deer-in-the-headlights look on TV.  Pelosi is are too cautious.  Reid's too old.  

Feinstein seems pretty articulate on foreign affairs.  Dean is great at staying on message.  Now if someone could get him to stop pursing his lips, as if he's mad...

Why not more of Levin, though he's a bit professorial.  Certainly, if Obama could interview as well as he gives speeches, he'd be great.

Some of this only requires training and rehearsal.  You plan for the questions and learn when to shut up.  

But most of all, do we have someone coordinating the message?  It seems we've had it the last couple of days.  

But if you keep hounding bookers, you can get them to come around.

What more can you tell me?

Quite right.  And if we really want to win this November, we have to use the weapons that they do, as distasteful as that might be to us.  We have to decide which of the alternatives is more distasteful.  As for me, I want to win.

Don't forget the voter supression tactics: identical name as a felony, confusing polling stations, purging voter rolls, electronic black box voting with hacking, vote spoliage, reduced voting machine in minority areas etc. etc.

I'm a bit older than most of you, and I've seen this movie too many times, starting in the '60s. The bottom line is that the Reps win because they have a phenomenally well coordinated simplistic and relentless attack machine. If we're going to quit getting our jollies by talking only to each other, the Dems need to get lean and mean.

The classic example of GOP tactics is the decades old, successful and continuing, transformation of the word "liberal" into an obscenity which provokes a widely negative response now among a broad spectrum of the electorate without any reference at all to its actual meaning. No Republican candidate or spokesman has opened his mouth for 40 years now without using the phrase "tax and spend liberal." It's ridiculous, but don't kid yourself - IT WORKS.

I suggest that there is a Democratic rejoinder out there just begging to be put into the same kind of reflexive and universal circulation. It is "RADICAL REPUBLICAN."

It takes a lot of repetition to hammer anything into the bored, discouraged, media fogged electorate, but RADICAL REPUBLICAN has the virtue of flowing trippingly from the tongue, and even being essentially true. The Reps are not the conservatives they claim to be, they're radicals who are trashing our values, our lives and our economy. Let's call them on it. Over and over and over and over . . . . . . .  

Chris, you raise some good points but I'm guardedly a bit more optimistic.

1)  Money.  Yes, the GOP still has an advantage.  But the advantage is much narrower than in recent election cycles AND they suddenly have a lot more terrain to defend.   The House and Senate campaigns are much more fought on terrain that they're trying to hold than on terrain we're fighting to hold.  In other words, we're on Offense, they're on Defense.  I like it.

2)  Noise machine.  I'll grant you that the traditional media is still parroting without question Republican talking points but the media, in its own stumble-footed way, also seems to like to go with winners and as the Democratic tide becomes apparent there will better coverage emanating from that direction.  

On the flip side, while I despise the pretentious self-importance of the phrase "people powered" politics and I think Kos-like pronouncements about the netroots Revolution being here are vastly overrated, I think that this is one area where the GOP is lagging and lagging badly.  The open architecture of the Democratic/Progressive on-line structures, as opposed to top-down hierarchial approach of the Republicans, is vastly superior.     Sometimes the Maoist "Let a hundred flowers bloom, let a hundred schools of though contend" can really work as ideas, opinions, strategies, etc. are bashed out in public by the many instead of in private by the few.  And I wouldn't underestimate the sheer informational component of the netroots, identifying opportunities for our candidates and vulnerabilities of theirs, pointing out frames that need to be rejected and talking points that need immediate and hard response, etc.  That said, I would want to avoid the sin of hubris.

3) Conservatives coming home.  That's certainly a  point but I want to reframe that as "Bush supporters coming home."   There are a fair slice of Independents and Democrats that voted for Bush that I think are now immune to the fearmongering from the other side.  They've been burned; I think you go back to early last year or so and on the more extensive polls Bush's "trustworthy" rating took a tumble from the low 60's/high 50's down into the low 40's or lower.  (Numbers from the top of my head...I'm sure that 119 people will check and report the degree of my error(s).]  These voters are far less likely to go back to backing Republicans, imo...they either sit out or they vote with us.

4)  Gas prices.  Point conceded, though I'm wondering, given geopolitical flux, how much prices may be within their control.

5)  October surprise.  I think that Democrats need to use the current London plot to hammer away relentlessly at the fact that 140,000 American troops in Iraq does nothing to affect terrorists like these(except perhaps to motivate them even more) and that we've done nothing to strike at the roots of terrorism but have intead opened up a failed-state recruiting zone.  

Bush/Cheney/Rove/Rumsfeld successfully linked 9/11 to Iraq in so many minds; we must actively and aggressively work to decouple the two as much as we can.

"This is a rare opportunity--the sort of opportunity that comes around once every couple of decades."

You have to wonder if that's really true. A weak President, corruption and mismanagement galore, an unpopular war. All these things are creating a sunami-sized wave of voter discontent.

But, really the Republicans aren't going to do any better in the future. There's a REASON why Bush is such a failure. They don't have any ideas about how to fix any of the problems America is facing. And there's only so long they can rule on rhetoric.

Such ideas as they do have will only make things worse, which becomes ever more painfully clear the longer they govern. So, their only hope is to terrorize the electorate into voting for them year after year with the un-ending "war on terror".

The problem with this is if they ever lose control, even for a short time, their appeal will deflate.

It will become obvious that we can survive withdrawal from Iraq without the terrorists swarming over Indianapolis, just as we survived the fall of Saigon without a communist domino toppling California.

The problems in the middle-east will even start to subside without our constantly pouring gasoline on the fire - not go away, but they won't be exploding all over the evening news every night.

With some wise management we could even stabilize the situation internationally, cut down on terrorist incidents, secure our ports, start to rebuild our infrastructure and move cautiously towards energy independence, all without the economy collapsing.

What then Republicans?