Senate Poll Compendium

by Chris Bowers, Mon Jul 31, 2006 at 04:41:39 PM EDT

The Senate polling picture looks remarkably good for Democrats right now. Here is the most recent poll on each relevant campaign:

Looking like pickups:
Missouri

McCaskill 45%, Talent 42%. Rasmussen, July 20
McCaskill 49%, Talent 43% (Research 2000, June 22)

Montana

Tester 50%, Burns 43% (Rasmussen, July 6)
Tester 43%, Burns 42%, Lake Research Partners, June 26

Ohio

Brown 44%, DeWine 42% (Rasmussen, late July)
Brown 45%, DeWine 37% (Columbus Dispatch, July 20).

Pennsylvania

Casey 50%, Santorum 40% (Strategic Vision, July 16)
Casey 52%, Santorum 34% Q-poll, June 19)
Casey 52%, Santorum 37% (Rasumssen, June 19)

Rhode Island

Whitehouse 46%, Chafee 41%. Rasmussen, July 11
Whitehouse 38%, Chafee 37%. (Brown University, June 26)

Not a bad poll in the bunch. We look good for pickups in all five states, with all five Republican incumbents at or below 43% in every poll. And most of these are polls by Republican firms Rasmussen and Strategic Vision. Our only real worries come from the money department, as all five Democrats trail all fives Republicans. The DSCC does lead the NRSC, however.

In the extended entry, I look at Democratic defense and longer-shot Democratic opportunities.

Democratic defenses
Washington (worrisome)

Cantwell 48%, McGavick 44% (Strategic Vision, July 23)
Cantwell 48%, McGavick 37% (Rasmussen, July 17)
Cantwell 47%, McGavick 33% (Elway Poll, July 13)

New Jersey (worrisome)

Menendez 43%, Kean 40% (FDU, July 16)
Menendez 38%, Kean 37% (Monmouth, July 13)
Kean 40%, Menendez 38% (Q-poll, July 12)
Menendez 43%, Kean 37% (Strategic Vision, July 9)
Menendez 46%, Kean 40% (Rasmussen, June 27)

Maryland (it would be close with Mfume)

Steele 45%, Mfueme 44%; Cardin 47%, Steele 41% (Rasumssen, July 10)
Mfume 46%, Steele 43%; Cardin 49% Steele 43% (Washington Post, June 25)

Minnesota (I'm not sure why I'm still listing this one)

Klobuchar 47%, Kennedy 42% (Survey USA, July 24)
Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 34% (Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal, July 20)
Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 31% (Star Tribune, July 11)
Klobuchar 47%, Kennedy 44% (Rasmussen, June 21)

Outside Democratic Chances
Tennessee

Corker 49%, Ford 36% (Mason-Dixon, July 19)
Corker 42%, Ford 35% (Tenn Poll, July 16)
Corker 49%, Ford 37% (Rasmussen, July 16)

Virginia

Allen 48%, Webb 32% (Mason-Dixon, July 27)
Allen 50%, Webb 39% (Rasmussen, July 18)
Allen 47%, Webb 37% (Zogby, July 15)
Allen 46%, Webb 39% (Benson Strategy Group, June 27)

Arizona (not looking good)

Kyl 45%, Pederson 27% (BRC, July 21)
Kyl 52%, Pederson 40% (Survey USA, July 17)
upcoming Rasmussen numbers--will update

If I did not list it, I do not think that right now the seat has any real chance to switch hands.

Tags: polls, Senate 2006 (all tags)

Comments

38 Comments

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Mfume

How come the netroots hasn't embraced Mfume?

What's not to love?

by aiko 2006-07-31 04:46PM | 0 recs

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"What's not to love?"

with an arugment like that, I'm sold.

by Chris Bowers 2006-07-31 04:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: "What's not to love?"

Let's give him some love.

by aiko 2006-08-01 01:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume

Weren't there allegations of sexual harassment when he was at the NAACP, which were settled for hundreds of thousands of dollars in NAACP money? Isn't that why he left?

by Ron Thompson 2006-07-31 05:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume

I'm pretty sure that was one of his predessors.

by Alice Marshall 2006-07-31 05:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume

Yes. Mfume left in a cloud over a promotions to women with whom he was accused of having "close personal relations" according to an internal NAACP report. Read that anyway you want.

I like Mfume and he definately has a lot of passion but I worry the NAACP cloud could be a problem for him should he be the nominee.

by John Mills 2006-07-31 06:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume

I'm a Mfume supporter in theory. He's an unassailable progressive, he's got a remarkable backstory, and he's an intelligent, articulate man who will well represent Maryland. And there's virtually no chance he'll go Lieberman on us.

I wouldn't worry too much about his "scandals". They're old news in Maryland, familiar turf for all concerned, and anyway Mfume can easily say "I had a troubled phase in my young adulthood, but I overcame it and I'm now an upright, contributing member of society and my kids have turned out great." (Which they have.) Hey, it worked for George W. Bush, didn't it?

And yes, there's a little bit of the Steele-defense factor here. Steele was put there by the pugs to wedge off a few black votes. Clumsy as Steele has been in public, he's still a likeable person and needs to be taken seriously. He's Alan Keyes without the offputting shrillness. Mfume would quickly neutralize that. Cardin's not a bad guy; he's just your typical milquetoast machine Dem -- the type that COULD go Lieberman on you eventually.

That said, Mfume has some problems. His fundraising has been abysmal, and his ground game has been close to nonexistent. I figure the funding issue will be moot if he does win the primary, as state party resources will then flow to him, but it DOES raise questions about his organizational skills.

If you could weld Cardin's organization with Mfume's persona, you'd have the perfect candidate. But we don't. The REAL problem here is that the primary's not till September 12th, leaving a scant seven weeks before the general. That's just awful planning, and doesn't reflect well on the state Dem party.

by Master Jack 2006-07-31 05:42PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume

Polls: Cardin vs. Steele = Likely Dem
Mfume vs. Steele = Toss-Up

That's why many of us are apprehensive about Mfume as a candidate.

by jkfp2004 2006-07-31 05:56PM | 0 recs

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The question...

Cardin's not a very exciting candidate, and I'm not sure he's immune to Steele wedging African-American voters from him. That's a huge concern. I think Mfume's still a better bet.

I think the MD Dems are taking Steele WAY too lightly. He's VERY dangerous. Is Cardin willing to fight him hard?

by Master Jack 2006-07-31 06:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: The question...

you really think so? it seems to me like Steele has been stumbling around, trying to do what he's done for four years as Lt. Governor -- not do anything, just be the smiling, inoffensive guy.

by johnny longtorso 2006-07-31 06:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume

"Cardin's not a bad guy; he's just your typical milquetoast machine Dem -- the type that COULD go Lieberman on you eventually."

Agree with everything here about Ben Cardin except the Lieberman comparison. He has been in the House for a long time and he may be a little more centrist than me but he is a party loyalist who I could never see cozying up to Bush or going on FOX bashing the party. That's not his style.

by John Mills 2006-07-31 06:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

Hopefully Napolitano runs for Kyl's seat after she serves her second term. Seems like we have a pretty weak bench out there in AZ.

by PsiFighter37 2006-07-31 04:47PM | 0 recs

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where's Nevada?

seriously, i'm curious how Jack's name recognition has taken to the electorate after the intro ads.

at least there isn't another Pennsylvania one in this batch!

feh.

-C.

by neutron 2006-07-31 04:47PM | 0 recs

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oops, I guess things don't look so good then?

I didn't read the post well enough it seems.

-C.

by neutron 2006-07-31 04:49PM | 0 recs

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Re: where's Nevada?

Nevada really should be more competitive than Arizona. Why isnt this race tightening?

by AC4508 2006-07-31 05:22PM | 0 recs

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Re: where's Nevada?

Not enough money. For the son of a President, it's been a little surprising that Carter's fundraising hasn't been at a top-tier level.

I credit that to Reid, at best, not encouraging the NV machine to help him.

by HellofaSandwich 2006-07-31 06:13PM | 0 recs

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Re: fundraising

Given that Carter has raised as much money as Webb while Warner did a fundraiser for Webb and Reid hasn't for Carter and NV is far smaller than VA I would say that it is excellent fundraising for a first time Senate candidate who is not pouring millions of his own money into the race (AZ). VA and NV are certainly on the same tier and NV may be moving above VA given the overwhelming advantage Allen has moneywise though Webb has the benefit of the Warner Kaine statewide political structure while Jack will have to rely on a combination of strong Democratic Congressional candidate political structures. De

by msstaley 2006-08-02 01:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: where's Nevada?

There's been a polling drought -- I haven't seen any polls in about a month. It's frustrating.

Sarah

by Sarah R Carter 2006-08-01 08:16AM | 0 recs

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Fifty-Fifty

This may be the perfect result, if we take the House. A 50-49 split, 50-50 if Bernie Sanders votes for Reid for Majority Leader, but with the Republicans retaining control, so it's not a "Democratic Congress" to frighten the rubes in 2008. With Lieberman gone there'd probably be 43 Democrats and Sanders to filibuster judicial nominees, and we'd only need one Republican to destroy the nuclear option. It would be a nightmare for the Republican leader, always having to get Snoew, Collins, Hagel, and Specter on board for everything they do.

by Ron Thompson 2006-07-31 05:12PM | 0 recs

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No, we must win!

Don't adopt the loser attitude that we don't wanna win! That sounds like DC consultant speak to me! Play it safe! Don't actually try to lead or do something!

Why wouldn't we wanna win? Why wouldn't we want to put forth our policies? We can advance certain popular issues like minimum wage and universal health care, stem cell research and energy independence.

Let's take bake Congress and do a better job than the Republicans.

by exLogCabin 2006-07-31 05:40PM | 0 recs

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Re: No, we must win!

It would be nice to take back the Senate, but I don't really see that happening. So it's nice to see that there might be an upside. And picking up five seats, getting rid of Santorum, and replacing Jeffords with Sanders and Lieberman with Lamont (knock on wood) is a nice silver lining.

For one thing, with 50 seats, we don't need to worry about the "Gang of 14" selling us out anymore because we can filibuster without them. That is a tremendous relief, because Stevens and Ginsburg are getting on in years and may not last out Bush.

by Gpack3 2006-07-31 06:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: No, we must win!

cute screen name- is it there for the reason I suspect?

also, its not necessarily a loser mentality, but I agree it's not helpful think of how we can avoid responsibility as a means of obtaining control on 2008. The other way to see this is that if this trial run works maybe the electorate will be more, not less interested in the brand Democrat.

by bruh21 2006-07-31 06:51PM | 0 recs

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Re: No, we must win!

Exactly, let's show them what we are capable. And if Bush vetoes it, then America will know where he stands on the issues. Either way, we can energize our base.

As for the screen name, not sure what you suspect are the reasons. :)

by exLogCabin 2006-07-31 09:40PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

So, let me ask this question -

Say all these polls hold and Dems net 5 seats in the Senate. Is there any benefit at all to having a 50-50 split with a sitting Republican Vice President?

For some reason I feel like in spite of the polls, Webb has a better chance to win in Virginia than Ford in Tennessee. With primaries not too long ago, neither campaign has really had a chance to kick it into full gear. But Webb is still learning the ropes, and you have to think that every week that goes by he'll get a little smoother with his public interaction, and the public will get a little more used to his style. Wishful thinking?

1 point a week...that's all it takes.

by dagger 2006-07-31 05:29PM | 0 recs

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For one thing...

...we'll force Cheney out of the bunker or underwater base, or flying island or wherever he is and into doing tiebreaker after tiebreaker. Cheney is such a shadowy secretive (paranoid?) person that forcing him into the light at least a little has very little downside.

Plus no one likes him so he'll be one more visible thing to hang around Bush's neck.

by MNPundit 2006-07-31 05:50PM | 0 recs

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Not wishful thinking.

Pretty realistic. Ford's run tons of ads, and he's going nowhere.

Webb hasn't even got one ad on TV yet. And VA is a lot more fertile territory than TN for Democrats lately. I'd definitely rank VA above TN.

by HellofaSandwich 2006-07-31 06:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

The last time there was a 50-50 split, Dems and Reps had equal membership on committees, with the Rs getting chairmanships because of the Cheney tiebreaker. In a situation like that, getting a Republican to flip and go with a solid-Dem bloc would create a win, not a tie.

There may also be procedural rules put in place that would make it easier for Dems to introduce bills or perform other parliamentary maneuvers. But I do believe this would all have to be negotiated between the Dem and Rep leaders of the new Senate.

by Dave Thomer 2006-07-31 06:45PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

Supposedly, this would be a good set up for a take over in 2008 where the republicans will have to defend more seats. I don't know if that's true, but basically it would mean we wouldn't need a perfect storm to see a majority develop that could actually govern by 2008 with a Democtatic prez

by bruh21 2006-07-31 06:53PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

I am a little worried about NJ. I think Menendez will be okay but NJ voters have a history of punishing Senate candidates when they are unhappy with their Governor. Just ask Bill Bradley who almost lost his seat in 1990 due to unhappiness with Jim Florio.

Corzine is showing a lot of courage in trying to tackle the states fiscal problems but if he doesn't handle it in a manner the voters like Menendez could be hurt. I'd keep a close eye on this race.

by John Mills 2006-07-31 06:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

I would be interested to see more recent polling than over 2 weeks ago. I think that would be useful.

by bruh21 2006-07-31 06:54PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

Corzine called a special session of the legislature last week to deal with property taxes and state fiscal issues. I think we need to let the dust settle from that and see where Menendez polls. I like what Corzine is doing but NJ is notorious fickle with their Govs so we will have to wait and see what happens.

by John Mills 2006-08-01 05:49AM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

I too am very frightened about New Jersey. Sen. Menendez is, in my opinion, the best senator New Jersey has had since Dollar Bill left office (well, I guess that really only leaves Frank name-a-train-station-after-me-while-I'm- still-alive-and-in-office-no-less Lautenberg, Robert William-Jefferson-of-the-north Torricelli, and Jon less-than-one-term Corzine, but still far surpasses them anyway). I've said it before, and I'll continue to say it: Robert Menendez is a strong voice for not only New Jersey, but for all Americans, and like his days as mayor of Union City where he wore kevlar to work in order to uphold his principles, he keeps going to the mattresses for us in the Senate as he did in the House.

Robert Menendez must not lose this election. It will be a greater loss to the Senate than one might think.

by pennquaker08 2006-07-31 08:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

Cantwell is probably in even more trouble than the polls show.

For one the local GOP base is rather energized because of sour grapes over losing the recount for Governor in 2004.

Secondly Cantwell is suffering from a case of Lieberman syndrome. She refuses to explain her stand on issues where she is out of step with Washington voters (Iraq War, Alito Cloture). She is rarely seen here except during fundraisers and election season. She treats local party organizations and activists with contempt. Furthermore her campaign is infested with a bunch of clueless high-dollar consultants.

All of this adds up to a Democratic base who just isn't terribly motivated to vote for her much less anything else. If turnout is low, McGavick could very well win.

One caveat though 'turnout' doesn't mean quite the same thing as it does elsewhere since most of Washington's counties have gone to vote-by-mail for 2006.

by ces 2006-07-31 11:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

Zogby has a poll out on TN and has Ford ahead. He polls like American Research Group and I can believe his poll.

by olawakandi 2006-08-01 03:25AM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

You guys are failing to count in the powerful momentum behind Jean Hay Bright's campaign against Olympia Snowe!

There's our sixth seat! Why, she's up to 10% already!

http://www.boston.com/news/local/maine/a rticles/2006/07/31/poll_shows_support_fo r_baldacci_other_top_of_ticket_incumbent s/

/snark>

by Christopher Walker 2006-08-01 06:54AM | 0 recs

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Are you saying...

that it looks like we'll pick up 5 seats and that if we defend our seats it will be 50-50 (with Bernie)?

by Robert P 2006-08-01 07:08AM | 0 recs

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5 Pickups

Chris, You say there's "not a bad poll in the bunch," but it looks like you're ignoring some of the recent polling that has been done on these five races. For example, see: http://www.myelectionanalysis.com/?p=121 2

I agree that these five seats are likely pickups, but the picture may not be as rosy as you claim. We're still going to have to work our asses off for all of these candidates.

by slb36cornell 2006-08-01 08:38AM | 0 recs

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Re: Senate Poll Compendium

What about Claire MaCaskill in Missouri?

by Lizzy 2006-08-01 07:26PM | 0 recs