America Is Not Representative Of America

So, CNN has conducted a study that looks at twelve demographic statistics and ranks how close to the national average each state comes to the national average. They don't list exactly which statistics were used, but here is the general outline:Holland identified 12 key statistics -- four that measure race and ethnicity, four that look at income and education, and four that describe the typical neighborhood in each state -- and added up how far each was from the figures for the average state on each measure.

Holland said he chose these 12 different categories because "they have a strong impact on the political landscape in every state." My first comment is that if he wanted to look at demographic factors that have an impact on politics, he should have looked at religion and union membership. Few demographics have more of an impact on political landscapes than those two factors.

Anyway, it seems that Wisconsin is the most average state nationwide. Is that something to brag about? Others were close: Close behind Wisconsin are four other Midwestern states that look most like a hypothetical average state -- Missouri, Kansas, Indiana and Ohio. Most of the least-typical states tend to come from the Northeast, including Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. West Virginia is in 49th place, while Mississippi comes in dead last. A second comment I have on the survey is how the CNN write-up seems to have completely failed to recognize the DNC's goal in choosing two states to go along with Iowa and New Hampshire. CNN writes: West Virginia is in 49th place, while Mississippi comes in dead last.

Interestingly, West Virginia and Mississippi both petitioned the Democratic National Committee to be chosen for early slots on the party's presidential nominating calendar in 2008. So did Michigan. They all lost. The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee recently recommended that Nevada and South Carolina join Iowa and New Hampshire for this coveted placement on the presidential nominating calendar. The full DNC membership is likely to ratify the recommendations next month. The implication here is that Democrats should have chosen states that were high on this list. However, that isn't what Democrats were looking for. The DNC didn't just want avergae demographics, they wanted regional diversity, plus high minority and union density states. Being "average" was not the only goal.

Finally, I would like to point out that for some reason this study finds that America is not representative of itself. The scale for the study was 0.0 to 50.0, with 50.0 being the most average. However, thirty-one states composing roughly 60% of the national population came in with scores below 25.0, which I suppose would be the "half-average" score. Overall, the median score for the study was around 20, a full 20% below "half average." Also, eight states were more "non-average" than Wisconsin was "average." My question is, how exactly does it work out that over half of the nation is not representative of the nation as a whole? That seems like a mathematical impossibility to me.

A strange study.

Tags: Demographics (all tags)

Comments

13 Comments

Strange scale may explain it

Not sure how they did their numbers, but let's suppose if State A is 20% above average for all measures, it will be 20% away from average and have a score of 40.  If State B is 20% below average for all measures it will also be 20% away from average and also have a score of 40.  If you average the scores for the two states, you get a score of 40.  However, if you average the measures for the two states first, all measures will average to 'average', and the combined score will actually be 50.  And then there's population weighting to consider too.  That's one possibility at least.

by dreaminonempty 2006-07-27 11:42AM | 0 recs
Woo! We're number one!

So that explains why I feel so . . . average.

Chris, the article says the 0-50 scale was a recalculation to make it easier for the lay people to understand.  I'm thinking the real results might prove more statistically credible.

by folkbum 2006-07-27 11:50AM | 0 recs
Re: America Is Not Representative Of America

Well, this is how averages often work.  Average 1, 2, 3, 97, 98, and 99, and you get 50.  If the variance is that high, it just means that the states aren't especially homogenous.  

by Neil the Ethical Werewolf 2006-07-27 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: America Is Not Representative Of America

Oops, I think I misunderstood your criticism.  Never mind.  

by Neil the Ethical Werewolf 2006-07-27 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: America Is Not Representative Of America

You're right. If the states are at 1,2,3 and 97,98,99 averaging to 50, then on their scale, they measure the absolute difference from 50 to the measure, thus we'd have the states at 1,1,2,2,3,3. You can see that in Mississippi, where there are many more blacks than in other states, the score is low, but in Utah, where there are many more whites, the score is also low. The low scores just indicate that there is large statistical variance in the states, and that the closest thing we have to "Average America" is a few states in the midwest. This is what you'd expect in a country as large and diverse as ours.

by Saddlebags12 2006-07-27 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: America Is Not Representative Of America

What's stranger is that if you added up the elctoral votes it would seem to skew even less "averagey". As texas, california, new york, and illinois are all below 20 points.

It's a useless study.

Here's the key:

Holland said he chose these 12 different categories because "they have a strong impact on the political landscape in every state."

That's the classic DLC quandry. If you are average across the board you don't appeal to anyone in particular. If you don't appeal to anyone, is that still average? is that good?

Interesting to note that Feingold, a political maverick, takes 10 points from Bush in 2004. So if the most average state is electing one of the least average senators what does that say about "average".

Nothing.

Elections aren't won by having the broadest "averagest" appeal, they are won by leaders. It's that simple.

by jacob wi 2006-07-27 12:08PM | 0 recs
Re: America Is Not Representative Of America
You really can't tell without knowing his methodology. It may not be accurate to describe a score of 25 as "half-average." If you look at anthropology, there is a concept known as the "modal personality," the theoretical person who has the average of certain personality traits within a group. There are surprisingly few people who fit the modal personality profile within a group.
by Anthony de Jesus 2006-07-27 12:57PM | 0 recs
The best you can say...

At least today's polls aren't just the "same old, same old" Spitzer vs. whats-his-name, Hillary vs. whats-his-name, Casey vs. Sanitorium, and Nelson vs. Harris.  The NPR poll was good, this one is - well, it's different...

Maybe next they'll get down to actually polling House and Senate races other than the major news-getters.

by Phoenix Rising 2006-07-27 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: The best you can say...

This isn't a poll. It's a study of demographics.

by Saddlebags12 2006-07-27 02:42PM | 0 recs
Eat cheese or die, fucker n/t

by MikeB 2006-07-27 03:02PM | 0 recs
Re: America Is Not Representative Of America

I should show this poll to my mother. She said that Russ Feingold couldn't win because he's from Wisconsin. Of course, Feingold is anything but average. Of course, Dukakis won that very "average" state. I believe Wisconsin is also one of 12 states that does not have the death penalty. So I guess average comes in many forms.

by liberal atheist 2006-07-27 03:15PM | 0 recs
Re: America Is Not Representative Of America

Of course, I use the phrase "of course" way too much.

by liberal atheist 2006-07-27 03:16PM | 0 recs
Re: America Is Not Representative Of America

CNN is probably not weighting the states for population.  They should, though it doesn't seem to be a bad study the way they did it.  The results make sense.

The "official" American accent and dialect (the one used by the television news anchors) is Midwestern, so it makes sense that the Midwest turns out to be the "average" region of the country.   The Northeast is too urban, the South is too religious fundamentalist, the West Coast is to secular, and the Mountain and Plains states have too few minorities.  My guess is that if population were weighted, Ohio would turn out to be the most average state.

by Michels 2006-07-27 08:25PM | 0 recs

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