A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

by Chris Bowers, Thu Jul 27, 2006 at 06:45:20 AM EDT

NPR has a new survey on the House out today that was conducted by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glenn Bolger. This poll is particularly interesting because of the district level detail it offers on the generic ballot question. The poll only focused on the fifty most competitive districts this year, forty of which are held by Republicans, and ten of which are held by Democrats. Here are some of the findings:

In the fifty most competitive House districts this year, Democrats lead the generic ballot 48-41. While this is a smaller lead for Democrats than many national polls reveal, it is important to remember that this is primarily a survey of Republican-held.
When candidates are named across the fifty districts, Democrats lead 49-43.
Within the ten Democratic held districts, Democrats hold a whopping 60-29 advantage. This may only be a sample size of around 200, but these numbers show the tremendous strength of Democratic incumbents around the nation. We hold a 31-point generic ballot advantage in our ten most endangered seats? Amazing.
Within the "top tier" Republican held seats (not sure how many districts this included), Democrats hold a sizable 52-42 advantage in the generic ballot. These are the sort of numbers that make a takeover very likely.
Within the "bottom tier" of the competitive Republican held seats, Democrats still hold a generic advantage of 47-44. This is particularly amazing. This shows Democratic competitiveness across a wide swatch of districts.
Bush is at 45% "strong disapprove" in these districts, and only 24% "strong approve." Remember--these are in districts that Republicans hold.
Voters also indicate a high level of enthusiasm to vote, and Demcorats hold a significant edge in that category. However, I'll believe that when I see it, considering low turnout during the primary season so far.

All of this makes it no wonder, as Jonathan pointed out earlier today, that Republicans are not calling themselves Republicans in commercials and on their websites (even Tom Reynolds, chair of the NRCC). All of these figures continue to make me cautiously optimistic for November. What would make me really optimistic would be more independent polls showing Democrats ahead in trial heats, as well as increased Democratic participation within primaries over the next month and a half. We have most of the pieces in place for a big wave of anywhere from 20-40 seats this fall, but there is always that buzzing sound in the back of my mind that Republican defenses from gerrymandering to GOTV to the media to Swiftboating to voter suppression to money to fear mongering could keep us reduced to modest gains of only five to eight seats.

You can read the full poll results here (20 page PDF). The margin of error for the whole poll is 3.2, and for individual subsets it is larger.

Update: GQR has the full report here, including a list of hte districts surveyed.

Tags: House 2006, public opinion (all tags)

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

Actually, an objective view of this tends to support Paul Rosenburgs contention, doesn't it?

The Democrats are not that strong. The Generic ballot shows a margin, but did you mention your measurement uncertainty. I have two degrees , one in math, one in physics. My husband has one.

Every number we give, always had paired with it a measurement uncertainty. Polls also vary widely amongst different measuring contexts.

Chris, will you please quote the measurement uncertainty? People powered politics thrive on truth with a capital T. Polls are always used by consultants to push the status quo.

Rosenburg (sp?) , my husband told me, posted once that the Democratic party is really not pushing that far forward - the numbers they are posting are far less than the blowout victory John Murtha predicts.

Aren't you always believing what you later wished you had stood up for?

by heyAnita 2006-07-27 07:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

by the way for what we're all having to face, for me personally - a landslide victory is what is demanded - a real turning point for America. Living here in a red state, I am so tired of half-solutions that basically paint the same colors all over the map but put people in power that just hide the lobbyist money better. Matt said it yesterday - bribery is bribery, even if it is legalized. I really don't see any change coming.. with a mild changing of the guard - the democrat congress might go after george bush, but they won't be able to win if the people are not behind it - just a simple majority and an abstraction, like some form of censure (which by the way should have passed in any house) that doesn't get passed - that would be very unsatisfying to us all. We are not doing this to play to lose. Just taking over the house is not enough if the popular sentiment as Rosenburg said, is not behind the democrats. The hubster told me Rosenburg said popular sentiment doesn't really identify with the Democrats as being agents of change. Thats what these lackluster poll numbers figure into for me. John Murtha predicted a landslide victory

by heyAnita 2006-07-27 07:05AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

Popular sentiment may not be behind the Democrats, but as this poll and numerous others have shown, it's decidedly against the Republicans. And on Election Day, that will probably yield the same result. Democrats haven't sealed the deal, but they do have an opportunity to win both the election and the active support of the people.

I also want to respond to your opinion that if the Democrats take Congress, not much real change will result. It's simply not true. A Democratic Congress will certainly stop the deluge of negative changes that have hurt our country for the past five or six years. And they will repeal a lot of those bad policies, as well. Even if Democrats accomplish nothing else, the repudiation of the radical right-wing agenda will be a huge turning point in this country's political history.

by slb36cornell 2006-07-27 07:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

That, plus supeona power.

by Chris Bowers 2006-07-27 08:04AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

Subpoena power is KEY.

I'd rather have censure than impeachment, but, ya know, when we start subpoenaing documents from the Bush White House, I think you can expect a constitutional battle, and that may well lead to a Watergate-style impeachment.

Personally, I'd rather have Bush leave office in clear disgrace, not as an enduring martyr for the Republican base. Truth is what is needed.

by Dumbo 2006-07-27 09:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

retention of power beyond 2008 however probably will require more than mere status quo ??

by bruh21 2006-07-27 08:13AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

Margin of error works both ways. Whatever the margin of error is, it could also mean that Democrats are further ahead than these numebrs show.

The poll did not list margins for poll subsets.

by Chris Bowers 2006-07-27 07:17AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

Chris, any idea which 50 seats were polled? The public results didn't give a list.

by slb36cornell 2006-07-27 07:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

Coudln't find that out. I looked too.

by Chris Bowers 2006-07-27 08:03AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

Full survey and list of CDs polled are up at http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=1713

by pinko 2006-07-27 09:05AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

Well, they say it's based on an amalgam of Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, Stu Rothenberg, and Hotline ratings, which all pretty closely track each other. On the pdf, they say the list is 40 R seats, 1 I seat, and 9 D seats, of which 12 are open seats (10 R, 1 I, 1 D) The most recent Charlie Cook shows 45 seats that are toss-up, lean R, or lean D, so I'd guess it's those 45 seats plus 5 of the 18 that are rated likely R.

The ones that lean D are 9 D and 1 I, with one open D seat and one open I seat, so it's pretty clear that those 10 (GA-08, GA-12, IL-08, IA-03, LA-03, OH-06, SC-05, TX-17, VT-AL, and WV-01) are the D and I seats that made it onto the NPR poll. If all 14 toss-ups (AZ-08, CO-07, CT-02, CT-04, FL-22, IL-06, IN-08, IN-09, IA-01, KY-04, NM-01, NC-11, OH-18, and PA-06), and 21 lean Rs (AZ-05, CA-11, CT-05, IN-02, KY-03, MN-06, NV-03, NH-01, NH-02, NJ-07, NY-20, NY-24, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, VA-02, WA-08, and WI-08) are included, that means the last 5 are probably drawn from this pool of 18 (CA-04, CA-50, CO-04, FL-08, FL-09, FL-13, FL-16, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, IA-02, KY-02, MN-01, NV-02, NY-19, NY-25, TX-22, WY-AL).

by Crazy Vaclav 2006-07-27 09:10AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

The last five drawn from likely R are CA-50, CO-04, FL-13, NV-02, and NY-25 (thanks to the link provided by Pinko).

by Crazy Vaclav 2006-07-27 09:17AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

I expect that all of us have seen the listings that a number of well-regarded pundits have made of what races are competitive. The Cook Political Report is pretty close. They list 10 Dem seats as "lean Dem," and 36 Rep seats as either toss-up or "lean Rep."

But of note, the National Journal's July 2006 Rankings of the 50 most competitive seats lists 40 Rep seats and and 10 Dem seats (including VT as Dem). Not that this list is what the survey used, but I'll bet it is close to the same. Here is a link to it. http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/ house/

by hilltopper 2006-07-27 09:15AM | 0 recs

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It's all about turnout.

In an off-year election turnout is lower, which favors districts according to the party registration numbers and partisan dedication.

Who are the regular voters?

Who whips up the most successful base strategy?

Are Republicans sufficiently disenchanted with Bush that they will sit out?

by MetaData 2006-07-27 07:46AM | 0 recs

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GOTV and Ad suggestion

Republicans use peer pressure--have great local GOTV which Dems should match

I think we should hammer a theme such as --Towards a Democratic Majority--for reform and accountability.

And imprint to people that even if they like their republican incumbent it is more important to have a DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY to save social security, check corruption, etc.

So I propose an ad:

2 people talking

first person: But I like my congressman even if he is a Republican.

secondperson: if you want to save Social Security, and have a smart and strong way to solve war on terror, if you want to check the corruption and bring back accountability in govt, if you want to stop the money politics, you need a Democratic majority and this means voting for the Democrat.

by jasmine 2006-07-27 08:08AM | 0 recs

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GOP numbers seem to be holding up

The striking number for me is Bush approval (p8): for strongly approve/strongly disapprove to be at 24/45 in what are GOP districts (80% of them) seems moderately remarkable.

But then, the margin in Congressional ballot (p15) is just 6 or 7 points (for named and generic candidate respectively).

I'd be tempted to infer from that that efforts to tar the GOP in Congress with the Bush brush - all that rubber stamp stuff, for instance - have been less than a total success.

And - I see (p16) the GOP have held the Dem margin in GOP districts to just 4 points (49-45), a statistical dead heat - which I'd have thought, with so little good news for the regime and so much bad (especially from Iraq) in the last month or two, was pretty good going.

Plus, as Chris points out, we don't know what they've got planned in the way of dirty tricks.

(I also wonder whether a relative lack of enthusiasm (p14) among GOP voters carries as much implication of abstention as it might do with Dem voters.

Perhaps duty will be a sufficient, even a superior, motive in the minds of some segments of GOP voters; grim determination to keep the barbarians out; circling the wagons, Alamo Redux, Lost Cause thinking. All that jazz...)

by skeptic06 2006-07-27 09:12AM | 0 recs

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Re: GOP numbers seem to be holding up

Generally with polls you want to look at the "net favorability" which adds the strongly and somewhat together... that narrows the gap by a third and may help to explain the differences at the congressional ballot level.

by steveolson 2006-07-27 11:07AM | 0 recs

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Re: A Deeper Look Into the Generic Ballot

Being on the ground, I still cannot believe that WI-08 is listed as "Lean R". In my campaign to replace Gard in the Assembly, I'm drawing votes from people that have voted for Gard in the past, but cannot stand him any longer, or are disgusted with the Republican machine.

by Noonan 2006-07-27 10:10AM | 0 recs