Cook is good, but what's with IL-17 being off the chart? I always thought of IL-17 as waaaaaay more competitive than, say, FL-16. Is Hare that secure? I mean, this is a competitive district where Blagojevich is almost certain to weaken downstate Democrats, and Hare is hardly as well-known as Lane Evans was.

Since you are doing consulting for Brad Miller I feel I must ask this.

Gov. Easley (D) is term limited out of the governor's office in 2008 and Liddy Dole (R) is up for re-election then as well. I have been impressed with what I have read on Rep. Miller. Is there any indication he will pursue either of these two offices?

Remember this is the open-ness of the blogs, not a press conference. Please don't give a non-answer.

Thanks.  :-D

In the 6th, Gerlach and Lois Murphy are even moneywise, but Gerlach picked up the teacher's union endorsement. That will hurt Murphy some, IMHO. Gerlach's worried, though, he's been breaking GOP ranks on votes lately. Expect Ed Rendell to a lot of co-campaing appearances with Murphy to help her.

In the 8th, Patrick Murphy has closed the money gap. He's doing a lot "off media", working the grassroots very hard. When the recent flooding occurred, Murphy was out rolling up his sleeves and helping while Fitzpatrick was issuing statements from DC. This will end up being very close either way.

In the 10th, it's all about Sherwood. This will be a referendum on his personal morality. If Carney shows he's a credible alternative, he'll likely win. Carney just got the endorsement of a group against domestic violence so you can figure Sherwood's affair and subsequent violence against his lover isn't going away as a campaign issue.

In the 7th, Sestak is raising money like a maniac.
Weldon has already gotten dirty. There have been push polls reported with leading and negative
questions about Sestak. A sure sign of a paniced
incumbent. With the Boeing helicopter plant a large employer in the district, defense spending
will be a big issue. Since Sestak probably has
better credentials here, the voters might not be
too reluctant to replace Weldon.

I was suprised to see the 4th on Hotline's radar.
Altmire is the best Dem challenger to Hart in the last 3 cycles, but he's almost broke from the primary and I don't sense a lot of enthusiasm for him from the voters. Berner would've been a better
choice, IMO, but the voters chose Altmire. Hart does just enough constituent service to keep her
viable in this Dem district, but she also has
broken GOP voting ranks somewhat lately especially
with her vote to override Bush's stem cell veto.
That tells me she must be at least a little worried.

Keep your eyes on two races off the radar right now. Barr(D) vs Shuster(R-I) in the 9th and Herr(D) vs Pitts(R-I)in the 16th. There is a real "not Shuster" vote to be tapped in the 9th. Pitts hasn't had a competitive race for years and Herr
is doing ok raising money. The 16th could be this
cycle's version of Holden vs Gekas. If there is
a Dem "tidal wave" in November, one or both of these seats could be a pick up.

So what shall we name this eventual yet nonexistent conspiracy....

Bowersola?

Chrisola?

That's great. I'd like to see them all win. Here's the question:

Did netroots attention/buzz/money put them there? or Did the netroots only pick close races?

I know there's no clear-cut one-or-the-other, and the truth will obviously be a bit of both, but I hope the answer is at least closer to "netroots made them competitive".

As you know very well: this isn't a zero-sum game, the readers will take your attention and multiply it on the local level; you've got readers in districts all over the country; and the netroots seems much better at moving a race from lean-republican to tossup than from tossup to lean-democratic. I think I'll diary that argument. later.

is doing great stuff.
John Laesch on protecting your vote.

Hastert is in trouble.

-C.

From everything I have seen Rep. Miller has been incredibly determined to fight for the good guys, especially on economic issues.  With him and Edwards, its almost like fighting for working class people is something to be proud of.  Who would have thought?

Good choice, and good match, for each of you.

Anyone out there have a feel for how the WI-08 race is going?
I'm getting great feelings of distrust of the Republican Party in general, and their presumptive candidate (John Gard) in particular as I'm campaigning to replace Gard in the Assembly. As a candidate, I can't comment on my personal views of the three Dems running (Steve Kagen, Nancy Nusbaum & Jamie Wall), but I do think whoever gets the nomination has a great chance to beat Gard.

We could pull off the trifecta in Wisconsin: Doyle stays Governor (beats Green), Gard loses Green's seat, and I can become the first Democrat to win this seat in 40 years.

Whenever there's a thread like this, I feel like I've got to bring up Michigan's 7th District.

After the Aug. 8th primary, I really hope this district will get a lot more attention. A first term Republican that's alienated the moderates and has a strong but ultra-conservative primary challenger who might actually win. All this in a district where Kerry got 45%. Plus a Constitution Party candidate that got 3% last time, and the general shift toward the Democrats nationwide, and I think it could become competitive.

I wrote a DailyKos diary on it yesterday, for those interested.

It's good to see you helping out Brad.  He's a good guy who works hard and deserves to have his message heard by a broader audience (in NC).  Robinson's a pathetic case and is sadly similar to too many candidates across the South.  We can do much better and Miller's an excellent vehicle for that.  

I've just spent a month with IA-02, the second most Democratic district in the US held by a Republican (went for Kerry with 62%) and it doesn't show up on these lists, and for good reason (due to lack of interest, going back to chosing a candidate) by the DCCC.  What the hell is wrong with Emanuel?  Leach (the incumbent) prances around at parades in full Indian head-dress (tosses out feathered "Vote Leach" headbands to kids for extra points) and still wins, as D's just can't get their act together, and no one thinks to help them out.  Ugh.

Otherwise, Iowa is a pretty cool place.  And this November, just three seats separate the current Red Iowa (Senate is tied, House, Rs lead with one seat) from Iowa going completely Blue (should Culvert beat Nussle, which he should, due to his being legacy and all.)  The coattails from the 1st and 3rd could help, but it sucks that the 2nd won't, as two of the four largest Latino counties are in that district.  Anyway, if anyone has any inclination to raise cash for state seats which could help now and in 2008 (guarding the vote in a state that went for Bush by less than 5000 votes), a few seats in Iowa could use a hand (Mark Nolte, in Johnson County for one.)

You're working for Brad Miller!  I remember him well from when I lived in NC, and I've enjoyed his blog posts since then.  Good luck.  

I'm glad to see you working for Brad Miller.  He's a quality guy.  Maybe you could lend Larry Kissell (NC-08) a hand as well - Larry will be as fine a Representative as Miller already is.