July Straw Poll

I have decided to reinstate the straw poll after a four-month absence. Quite frankly, I stopped running the polls because I was bored with the results. It became obvious that Feingold would win any poll huge that did not include Gore, and that Gore would win any poll huge no matter who else was included. But hey, now its four months later. Let's see if anything has changed.

You can vote in the July straw poll here. And no, Gore's not included. He doesn't have a Leadership PAC or campaign staff. He has said he has no plans to run. Get past it.

Also, for fun, I have created a retro straw poll. This poll goes back and asks people to rank their choices for the Democratic nomination back in 2004. That should be fun.

Enjoy! I'll do what I can to get the nitty-gritty details on both of these polls (second choices, last choices, etc) for the weekend.

Tags: General 2004, President 2008, Straw polls (all tags)

Comments

54 Comments

Re: July Straw Poll

Feingold in the first poll, that's obvious.

In the second one, however, I voted for Bob Graham, because looking back, I think we were fools for not seeing that he was by far the most accomplished, geographically situated, and well positioned candidate to win the general election. Remember, before he dropped out, he was one of the few "anti-war" Democrats, not a flipflopper or stay-the-course democrat like the others. In addition, he would've easily won Florida, as he was hugely popular there.

At the very minimum, Kerry should've chosen him as his running mate.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-17 11:52AM | 0 recs
Bob Graham

Actually, it's GORE who should have chosen him. That would have put Florida out of reach even with Jeb and Harris's shenanigans.

by Jim in Chicago 2006-07-17 11:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Bob Graham

agreed, as Lieberman was as Colbert said "An Inconvenient Truth"

But if Kerry were the nominee, he should have pinned himself away from the Pro-war movement by allying himself with the likes of Bob Graham for Veep.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-17 11:58AM | 0 recs
I have "no plans" to "get past it

http://www.draftgore2008.org

by Jim in Chicago 2006-07-17 11:56AM | 0 recs
Gore's VP Poll

Here is the ongoing Gore's Running Mate Poll at the Gore Portal, which Gore supporters (and others) are welcome to participate in.

Just added Sens. Bob Graham and Kent Conrad.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-17 12:33PM | 0 recs
I have "no plans" to "get past it

me neither.  Gore doesn't need a PAC at this point and I am not convinced he will not run.  = )

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2006-07-17 03:41PM | 0 recs
Let us encourage Gore to tun!

Gore recently won the Alternet readers' poll:


Readers Speak: Gore, Chomsky and Ivins Are Winners
By Don Hazen, AlterNet. Posted July 13, 2006.

Gore wins big in AlterNet's presidential straw poll while Hillary trails badly; Chomsky grabs Most Valuable Progressive and Ivins gets Best Opinion Writer.

The results are in. More than 13,000 readers cast their straw vote in AlterNet's reader survey and poll conducted during the last two weeks of June. Readers came out in droves to state their preference for Al Gore as Democratic Presidential candidate for 2008.

Gore, whose popularity appears to be growing with the success of his documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, received 35 percent of the vote, followed by Senator Russ Feingold at 20 percent and former vice presidential candidate John Edwards at 11 percent. Wesley Clark received 4 percent, and John Kerry and Mark Warner 2 percent.

Gore won the May/June DKos straw poll overwhelmingly:


Who do you support in 2008?

Joe Biden       60 votes - 0 %
Chris Dodd       23 votes - 0 %
Tom Vilsack       13 votes - 0 %
Hillary Clinton       80 votes - 0 %

Al Gore       7525 votes - 68 %

Mark Warner       373 votes - 3 %
Tom Daschle       15 votes - 0 %
Russ Feingold       1734 votes - 15 %
John Kerry       87 votes - 0 %
John Edwards       283 votes - 2 %
Bill Richardson       68 votes - 0 %
Wesley Clark       539 votes - 4 %
Evan Bayh       41 votes - 0 %
No Freakin' Clue       105 votes - 0 %
Other       79 votes - 0 %

11026 Total Votes

Al Gore hasn't ruled out a run, as you may see in this video.

Another recent statement from Gore: "I'm not planning on it, but thanks for encouraging me"

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-17 11:58AM | 0 recs
Here is one way to encourage...

Make your appeal to Al Gore at the  Gore 2008 Draft Portal.

-----

Voted for Bob Graham in the Retro poll. If Gore doesn't run, Graham would be a sensible choice because of his conscientious diligence in trying to prevent an unnecessary war, as one can read here (important enough to post the whole thing):


    What I Knew Before the Invasion

   By Bob Graham
    Sunday, November 20, 2005; Page B07

   In the past week President Bush has twice attacked Democrats for being hypocrites on the Iraq war. "[M]ore than 100 Democrats in the House and Senate, who had access to the same intelligence, voted to support removing Saddam Hussein from power," he said.

   The president's attacks are outrageous. Yes, more than 100 Democrats voted to authorize him to take the nation to war. Most of them, though, like their Republican colleagues, did so in the legitimate belief that the president and his administration were truthful in their statements that Saddam Hussein was a gathering menace -- that if Hussein was not disarmed, the smoking gun would become a mushroom cloud.

   The president has undermined trust. No longer will the members of Congress be entitled to accept his veracity. Caveat emptor has become the word. Every member of Congress is on his or her own to determine the truth.

   As chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence during the tragedy of Sept. 11, 2001, and the run-up to the Iraq war, I probably had as much access to the intelligence on which the war was predicated as any other member of Congress.

   I, too, presumed the president was being truthful -- until a series of events undercut that confidence.

   In February 2002, after a briefing on the status of the war in Afghanistan, the commanding officer, Gen. Tommy Franks, told me the war was being compromised as specialized personnel and equipment were being shifted from Afghanistan to prepare for the war in Iraq -- a war more than a year away. Even at this early date, the White House was signaling that the threat posed by Saddam Hussein was of such urgency that it had priority over the crushing of al Qaeda.

   In the early fall of 2002, a joint House-Senate intelligence inquiry committee, which I co-chaired, was in the final stages of its investigation of what happened before Sept. 11. As the unclassified final report of the inquiry documented, several failures of intelligence contributed to the tragedy. But as of October 2002, 13 months later, the administration was resisting initiating any substantial action to understand, much less fix, those problems.

   At a meeting of the Senate intelligence committee on Sept. 5, 2002, CIA Director George Tenet was asked what the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) provided as the rationale for a preemptive war in Iraq. An NIE is the product of the entire intelligence community, and its most comprehensive assessment. I was stunned when Tenet said that no NIE had been requested by the White House and none had been prepared. Invoking our rarely used senatorial authority, I directed the completion of an NIE.

   Tenet objected, saying that his people were too committed to other assignments to analyze Saddam Hussein's capabilities and will to use chemical, biological and possibly nuclear weapons. We insisted, and three weeks later the community produced a classified NIE.

   There were troubling aspects to this 90-page document. While slanted toward the conclusion that Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction stored or produced at 550 sites, it contained vigorous dissents on key parts of the information, especially by the departments of State and Energy. Particular skepticism was raised about aluminum tubes that were offered as evidence Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear program. As to Hussein's will to use whatever weapons he might have, the estimate indicated he would not do so unless he was first attacked.

   Under questioning, Tenet added that the information in the NIE had not been independently verified by an operative responsible to the United States. In fact, no such person was inside Iraq. Most of the alleged intelligence came from Iraqi exiles or third countries, all of which had an interest in the United States' removing Hussein, by force if necessary.

   The American people needed to know these reservations, and I requested that an unclassified, public version of the NIE be prepared. On Oct. 4, Tenet presented a 25-page document titled "Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs." It represented an unqualified case that Hussein possessed them, avoided a discussion of whether he had the will to use them and omitted the dissenting opinions contained in the classified version. Its conclusions, such as "If Baghdad acquired sufficient weapons-grade fissile material from abroad, it could make a nuclear weapon within a year," underscored the White House's claim that exactly such material was being provided from Africa to Iraq.

   From my advantaged position, I had earlier concluded that a war with Iraq would be a distraction from the successful and expeditious completion of our aims in Afghanistan. Now I had come to question whether the White House was telling the truth -- or even had an interest in knowing the truth.

   On Oct. 11, I voted no on the resolution to give the president authority to go to war against Iraq. I was able to apply caveat emptor. Most of my colleagues could not.

   The writer is a former Democratic senator from Florida. He is currently a fellow at Harvard University's Institute of Politics.


It's unfortunate that he didn't get traction in 2004.

Sen. Jack Reed (RI) who is a great progressive with military experience and opposed the Iraq war as well, is another interesting option to explore for 2008.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-17 12:13PM | 0 recs
you know I love Al Gore.

But I really don't think he's running, nor should he. come on guys!

Vilsack's stock has gone up with me somewhat with his work on election reform and verified voting.

He's doing a good job of defining himself away from the rest of the DLC crowd by concentrating on these important issues, and I think we might see a little traction in the polls because of that.

I'm surprised to say it, but he's been listening, and could turn out to be a decent "work in progress" like John Edwards.

Still firmly Feingold 1st and Clark 2nd... but he has me paying attention instead of being a non-starter like Dodd and Biden.
-C.

by neutron 2006-07-17 12:01PM | 0 recs
I can't think of a single reason

that Gore should not run.

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2006-07-17 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: I can't think of a single reason

I can: because you don't get a second shot at authenticity.  Claiming now that we didn't get "the real Al Gore" in 2000 only makes me wonder how real this Al Gore is.

by Adam B 2006-07-17 07:23PM | 0 recs
Re: I can't think of a single reason

I can: because you don't get a second shot at authenticity.

What does that mean? He was authentic before, he is authentic now.

Claiming now that we didn't get "the real Al Gore" in 2000 only makes me wonder how real this Al Gore is.

These versions numbers are fictitious figments.

If one looks closely, it becomes very evident that he has always been a modern day populist that puts people first but also believes that a socially responsible pro-growth agenda based in science and technology will help everyone prosper. He speaks more passionately now, and that's a good thing.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-17 08:32PM | 0 recs
Re: I can't think of a single reason

Really?  Where was the fiery, passionate, unrepentantly liberal Al Gore in 2000?  (In 1993-1999, for that matter?)

You're a believer.  That's wonderful.  Not everyone is, and some of us see his "I'm not calculated now!" as just another calculation.

by Adam B 2006-07-18 05:27AM | 0 recs
Re: I can't think of a single reason

unrepentantly liberal Al Gore in 2000?

Gore is not into labels, and he never was. Good policy is hardly based on labels and ideologies. What you're seeing is an  Al Gore that is "unrepentently Al Gore".

In 1993-1999, for that matter?

Clinton overshadowed him. Wish Gore ran by himself in 1992, and picked Clinton as his VP. But as it was, Gore was busy working hard behind the scenes and not engaging in self-promotion or tooting his own horn.

You're a believer.

I am a believer in the ideals (with a pragmatic approach to realizing them) that Gore represents and brings forth.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-18 05:50AM | 0 recs
Re: I can't think of a single reason

If you really believe there's no difference between the Gore who campaigned in 2000 and the one we've seen from 2002 since, well, I don't know what to say.

by Adam B 2006-07-18 08:04AM | 0 recs
Re: I can't think of a single reason

Well, Gore, since he took charge from around convention time, is roughly similar to what we see.

Give me specifics not generics, Adam. We'll discuss them.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-18 08:12AM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

Look, so far I'm for Feingold, but, why does having a PAC make a candidate real? The truth is, Gore could surpass everyone except Hillary in a few days no prob.  OTOH, there are probably quite a few candidates who do have that that we all know doesn't have a snowballs chance.

The reality is, whoever polls high and has access to money is a candidate.  Trying to bamboozle us with these inside baseball terms is missing the forest for the trees.

by attorney at arms 2006-07-17 12:23PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

PACs generally show a candidate's interest in running for presidency, including but not necessarily money-wise. The fact of the matter is, that while Gore could raise millions of dollars instantly, he still lacks the desire to actually run for president (and I don't blame him, he already has twice!).

by KainIIIC 2006-07-17 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

Hiya Kain, howdy!

"Desire" is not a static entity. For now, I think Gore is focussed on global warming. Who knows how he will feel about running a year from now?

IMO, there is a good chance that he'd run, IF his numbers against HRC improve (currently he polls second at about 18% vs HRC's 33%).

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-17 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

Of course it could change, but usually for these polls the criterion is "expressing interest for the 2008 nomination", which, sorry, is something Gore has explicitly said he has none of. Yes there may be a very distant possibility in the future, but also there's the possibility of Michael Dukakis throwing his hat in the ring or Bill Clinton attempting to get the Constitution amended so that he can run again. Now that's a little farfetched, but in all seriousness, Gore has NOT expressed interest in running for president in 2008 - the interest is entirely fueled by the media and individuals like yourself ;).

But hey, at least we agree on Bob Graham!

by KainIIIC 2006-07-17 12:53PM | 0 recs
Putting Global Warming front and center

Gore running with Global Warming as his signature issue makes a lot of sense (it was on his platform in 2000, and talked about it in the debates, but it wasn't the top issue. I don't think the public was ready for it yet and a lot more evidence emerged since then as well).

Gore's Movie was seen by 2 million plus, may be 5 million with the DVD, but if Gore runs, that would provide him an opportunity to address 100s of millions of people regarding the urgency of the issue (I have started reading and exploring global warming and I am increasingly convinced it portends a great potential calamity).

Bill Clinton and Gore built a robust and strong economy among other things, and add to that the grave need to address global warming (like it's yesterday), we have a perfect case for and a perfect candidate in Gore.

the interest is entirely fueled by the media and individuals like yourself ;)

Thanks for the credit, but hey, I'll have to share it with Chris and individuals like yourself that keep on wishing Gore away :)

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-17 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Putting Global Warming front and center

but he still hasn't said he is interested in running. That's the major criterion for being on these polls, and that makes perfect sense.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-17 02:52PM | 0 recs
A few more days like today

and the whole country will be focussed on global warming -- which will certainly cause Gore's stock to rise....

by Jim in Chicago 2006-07-17 01:54PM | 0 recs
are you a mind reader?

Or did Al call you and discuss his desires with you personally?

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2006-07-17 03:48PM | 0 recs
Another Boring Straw Poll !!!

Quite frankly, I stopped running the polls because I was bored with the results.

OF COURSE !!!

It's just another goofy, closed "IRV" poll !!!

Hey, Chris: when are you going to run an open "IRV" poll? I already know the answer is never. You would have to confront the inconvenient truth that it would be way too complicated. And, even if it could be done openly in a realistic manner, it would demonstrate yet again that no ranked voting method can ever be fair to voters. Why not try real runoffs, with approval voting, which would be rather simple, and would actually be fair to the people who bother to vote?

by blues 2006-07-17 01:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Another Boring Straw Poll !!!

While I think it might be more effective to be polite to our hosts, you can count me in the camp that dislikes IRV.  I'm aware that plenty of well-intentioned people support IRV. But I think they'd all be much better off backing either Approval or some variety of Condorcet. The proportional representation variant of IRV, usually called STV-PR (Single Transferrable Vote, Proportional Representation) is pretty good for blocks of four or more seats. For single winner elections, IRV is almost as bad as what we have now, and in one non-trivial regard, it's worse.

Here's the most famous theoretical example of IRV's failings:

Imagine a world in which the Green Party manages to pull over most liberal Democrats, and the Democrats pull in a bunch of moderate Republicans. So, most Greens will vote Green over Democrat over Republican; most Democrats (having drawn from the conservative wing of the old Dems, and moderate Repubs) will vote Dem over Rep over Green; and most Reps will vote Rep over Dem over Green. Not too implausible, right?

On election day, in a town with 100 voters, the returns thus far, with 98 votes counted, look like this:

35 Republicans: R > D > G
32 Democrats: D > R > G
31 Greens: G > D > R

Before I count the ballots under IRV, please note that both the Reps and Dems prefer D over G; and both the Greens and Dems prefer D over R. So, D gets a two-thirds majority, in a one-on-one race against either of his possible opponents. Clearly, he is the majority winner under any sane system.

Now, to count the votes: G has the least first choice ballots, so he gets eliminated; his votes go to D, and D wins. Great!

But wait: there were two more votes! Turns out, they're both Greens:

35 Republicans: R > D > G
32 Democrats: D > R > G
33 Greens: G > D > R

Now, when we run the IRV algorithm, the Democrat is eliminated first; votes transfer to the Republican, and R wins.

Note that the situation mentioned above, where two-thirds of the voters prefer the Democrat over the Republican has not changed. The Dem should, by rights, be seen as the majority choice.

But even worse, the voters who changed the results, themselves preferred the Democrat over the Republican! They would've been happier with the outcome if they'd just stayed home, rather than participating in the election. This "Participation Failure" problem, where a voter's own ballot can make things worse for that voter, is the place where IRV is actually worse than our current system. Sure, it may seem a little contrived, but the scenario I outlined isn't totally implausible, and if something like this ever did happen, the two-thirds who got shafted would revolt, setting back electoral reform for a generation or two. A system that behaves this way is simply unacceptable.

Here's a second example. Suppose we have five candidates, spanning a spectrum: FarLeft, CenterLeft, CenterModerate, CenterRight, and FarRight. Individual voters have a favorite, and then their preferences expand evenly "outward" from that position. I'll use "=" to show places where the ballots are split evenly on how they order a pair of candidates. The votes look like this:

35 FL > CL > CM > CR > FR
65 CL > FL = CM > CR > FR
99 CM > CL = CR > FL = FR
65 CR > CM = FR > CL > FL
35 FR > CR > CM > CL > FL

The important thing to note is that FarLeft and FarRight, having the least first-choice votes, get eliminated first. Their votes flow inwards, to CenterLeft and CenterRight, who now each have 100 votes... meaning that CenterModerate, with 99 votes, gets eliminated.

So, CenterModerate started out with the most first-choice votes, and, if you compare him against any other contender, he has at least two-thirds of the votes in any head-to-head race. Yet he still loses! This effect is called the "Center Squeeze" (and when generalized to all systems that have this property of favoring a permanently bifurcated electorate, it's called "Duverger's Law"). Basically, it shows that IRV does not help with the problem of polarization.

All the ill effects we associate with that polarization -- negative campaigning, people focusing more on the "us vs them" than on good policy, etc -- will be unaffected by IRV. And IRV will, in the long run, fail to encourage cooperation from the small parties, because those parties will still have the potential to become spoilers. As a friend of mine puts it, in IRV, it's safe to vote a third party as your favorite, as long as they have absolutely no chance of winning.

In the real world, we see Australia, with IRV, having two real parties. They technically have more than that, but in fact, the Labor party generally holds roughly half the electorate, and the next three parties all cooperate as a super-party generally known as the Coalition, which also holds roughly half the electorate:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/ 2004/guide/pendulumindex.htm

The Coalition parties usually try to avoid running candidates against each other in vulnerable seats (which would be similar to a hostile primary challenge, in one of the US parties). In order to make sure they avoid enacting the Participation Failure situation, the Coalition parties (as well as minor parties like the Greens) distribute How To Vote Cards
http://www.australianpolitics.com/electi ons/htv/
The cards very occasionally encourage people to vote their own party as preference 2, instead of 1. (Or at least, that is what I've been told by a woman who grew up in Australia, and had been a registered Green.)

The biggest example of "runoff failure" one can point to -- though granted, this was a top-two runoff, not IRV -- is the French Presidential Election of 2002. I'm partially guessing at who should be called right and who left (I know, for example, that the Union for French Democracy has a mixed history; sometimes they support the right, but they're pro-EU, and dislike the right's xenophobic tendencies), but please think through the example before nitpicking it. Here are the votes from the original election, as published in the French papers. (You can get this data from a wide variety of sources.)

Parties that look like they're on the right:
19.88% Rally for the Republic (Jacques Chirac)
16.86% National Front (Jean-Marie Le Pen)
4.23% Hunt, Fish, Nature, Traditions
2.34% National Republican Movement (extreme splinter from National Front)
1.19% Forum of Social Republicans (ran on an anti-gay platform)

Total on the right: 44.5%

On the left (the names largely speak for themselves):
16.18% Socialist Party (Lionel Jospin)
6.84% Union for French Democracy
5.72% Workers' Struggle
5.33% Citizens' Movement
5.25% The Greens
4.25% Revolutionary Communist League
3.91% Liberal Democracy
3.37% French Communist Party
2.32% Left Radical Party
1.88% Citizenship, Action, Participation for the XXIst Century
0.47% Party of the Workers

Total on the left: 55.5%

So, a center-left candidate should win, handily, against a center-right candidate, if you held the race between them; and any centrist candidate should win against any more-extreme candidate.

And yet, if you suppose that in an instant-runoff race, any of the left parties might've broken 16.18% before votes got transferred to Jospin, he would've been eliminated.

There are a lot of systems out there that are better than IRV, and many of them aren't even particularly complicated.

For a ranked-ballot, there's a vast family of "Condorcet" systems, named after the Marquis de Condorcet, who made the first attempt at mathematically analyzing electoral systems -- it's a great shame he was published twenty years after our Constitution was written, because he's exactly the sort of philosopher the Founding Fathers would've read and appreciated. His basic system simply looks at each head-to-head race, and picks the guy who wins against everybody else. There's one minor catch -- such a candidate doesn't always exist; you need a way to deal with situations where A beats B beats C beats A:

5 voters say: A > B > C
6 voters say: B > C > A
7 voters say: C > A > B

But, there are many perfectly acceptable ways to deal with this, and such situations are extremely unlikely to occur in practice -- political scientists who study these things estimate that less than 1 in 1000 real-world elections with three contenders, produce a cycle. There are also quite a few good metaphors for explaining Condorcet to the electorate (such as looking at it like a sports league -- each team plays each other team, and one of them comes out as the champion). Try explaining IRV to the man on the street, some time.

I personally think that the best, easiest, and cheapest reform is Approval Voting, in which you simply vote Yes/No on each candidate (like a ballot measure), and the guy with most Yes marks wins. This lets us reform the system without spending a nickel on new equipment, and with only the most minimal effort required to explain the system to the general public.

You might complain that this doesn't let you express a preference between two people you're voting for, but I don't find that terribly persuasive; if somebody approves just the Democrat, that's they're favorite; if they approve the Dem and the Green, it's almost certainly the case that the Green is their favorite, but they just don't think he's likely to win, so they're approving the Dem as well to help him beat the Republican.

The technical issue here is that if you allow "rated" ballots, where people give each candidate a score -- say, 0 to 9 -- it turns out that there is a strategic advantage in only using the top and bottom scores. People who follow that strategy have a greater chance of deciding the election. So, it's simpler to only provide two scores in the first place. Sure, it leads to some tough choices, from time to time, but it's not like we don't face those choices today (whether to cast a ballot for a true favorite, or for a compromise), and that will happen, at least, much less under Approval. And IRV's promise of avoiding this problem turns out to be illusory, as seen in the Participation Failure example -- those last two Greens would've been better off if they'd betrayed their true favorite, and voted the Democrat first.

In general, as long as there's any sort of decent polling available, you can vote effectively (and interpret votes) on an Approval ballot. You approve your favorite among the frontrunners, plus everybody you like better. In the Participation Failure example, you might see something like this:

The 35 Republicans break into:
20 Yes on R only
15 Yes on R and D

The 32 Dems break into:
16 Yes on D and R
16 Yes on D only

The 33 Greens break into:
15 Yes on G and D
18 Yes on G only

The final "Yes" scores are R=51, D=62, G=33.

I often hear the complaint that Approval violates "one man, one vote". It's more accurate that Approval Voting says "one man, one vote per candidate." Approval doesn't give any more power to somebody who votes Yes on more than one alternative. If you think about it, voting Yes on every candidate has the exact same effect as voting No on every candidate. If your ballot doesn't change the relative positions of the candidates, it might as well not get cast.

There is also a lot of merit to the idea of Proportional Representation (and as I mentioned earlier, the IRV variant that works in PR is pretty good, as long as the number of seats is at least four). There are also some party-based and candidate-based PR systems based on approval, and some other even more sophisticated candidate-based PR systems (the basic idea is to allocate support from candidates who clearly have too little support to win, towards candidates still in the race, using a "similarity metric" based on the actual ballots cast).

Of course, PR is much more complex and difficult to pitch to voters; also, it can be difficult to administer. This costs the city or state money, and creates a lot of unhappy citizens. I've talked about this problem with a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors; he had some rather harsh words for how the shift to preference ballots has played out in San Francisco, because many of his constituents have been confused and upset. Possibly an approval ballot PR system would be easier for people.

I apologize for being so long-winded, but this is, of course, a complex topic. I hope, even if I haven't persuaded you that IRV is a bad thing to support, that I've at least convinced you that there are some credible arguments against it, and some good alternatives.

by auros 2006-07-17 06:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Another Boring Straw Poll !!!

Yeah, IRV sucks. Also, the demochoice polling site sucks. I say this with the confidence of someone who has written better - BetterPolls.com (If it's missing a feature you think it should have, I'd love feedback)

I'm not sure where exactly you were going with your post, must be the beer I had with dinner. Perhaps one way to "open" a poll is to allow write-ins, which betterpolls.com does.

Anyhow, my current favorite solution to the voter expressiveness problem is to allow voting a -10 to 10 rating on each candidate. Then you can say how much you like the choices not just which over which other. 6th choices might rate 10,9,1,-5,-9,-10

After the previous straw poll, I used my software on the votes dumped out of demochoice and produced some pretty histograms and counted the ballots using systems other than IRV like Approval and Virtual-Round-Robin/Condorcet and others. I guess I'll have to do that again tomorrow.

by bolson 2006-07-17 07:49PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

Still want aother comment? Okay: Your crummy straw poll sucks!

by blues 2006-07-17 01:51PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

OOPS. Posted this in the wrong thread.

by blues 2006-07-17 01:53PM | 0 recs
Uh, does Daschle have a PAC?

Just wondering.

by Shawn 2006-07-17 03:00PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

What's interesting to me so far is the renewed strength of John Edwards in both polls.

by Adam B 2006-07-17 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

I know, I've been voting for him ever since these polls started, but I was shocked to see him leading this one so far.  I wonder what has changed the people's mind who have switched to him.  Nothing earth shattering has happened with him the past few monthes.

by dbeard115 2006-07-17 04:23PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

I think the "renewed strength" Edwards is showing is due to the work he has been doing in the last year, traveling around the country to fight for an increase in the minimum wage, attending Union rallies, raising money for Democrats (6.5 million) and his work on poverty.

Edwards has been out there in a lot of states in the past year.

by NCDemAmy 2006-07-17 04:29PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

This was part of an exchange on a forum on the website for his PAC. I think it's safe to say there's some freeping going on from the Edwards camp.

"Vote Edwards http://www.demochoice.org/dcballot.php?p oll=12345
17:55
NCDem:And vote again and again! They ask you to return to vote again but you may have to wait a few min, but go for it!"

by whodat527 2006-07-17 05:34PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

It doesn't mean they did vote again and again! But it says in the results, if you do vote twice, please come back in a few hours before casting "another vote":

"Our records show that you have recently voted.
Please wait a few hours before casting another vote."

The poll could be set up to accept only one vote per user and it's not.

Further, it's glaringly obvious that online polls that encourage people to vote more than once are not statistically valid.

by NCDemAmy 2006-07-17 06:05PM | 0 recs
they all will freep

These polls should have a place to put in who reminded you to poll for them.  I mean everytime a "major" site holds a straw poll almost every campaign is going to tell their mailing list about them as soon as they can.

The PACs who have online voting about where to vote (forward together and PAC for a change) also have campaigns reminding people to vote for them.

by Luam 2006-07-17 08:14PM | 0 recs
Re: they all will freep

I'm not disagreeing that they will all freep and I do remember emails like that from the Kerry campaign, but if an email went out from the OAC on this, I didn't get it and I did sign up to recieve their emails.

But thanks for the info!

by NCDemAmy 2006-07-17 08:37PM | 0 recs
Gore would be a great...

secretary of energy in an Edwards adminstration. Gore's an honorable man but an AWFUL politician. Let's hope he doesn't run.

by david mizner 2006-07-17 05:44PM | 0 recs
Edwadrs would be great...

Secretary of Labor in a Gore administration.

Gore's an honorable man but an AWFUL politician.

Sure, he is not a finger-in-the-wind opportunist like most of them. But he was good enough to have won the Presidency once.

If we ever want to see the political process reformed and brought to a higher plateua, we better hope that Gore runs.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-17 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Edwadrs would be great...

I love Gore, but he is wildly unpopular, worse in some polls than Clinton. It's over for him.

by tigercourse 2006-07-17 06:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Edwadrs would be great...

No, Gore is misunderstood because of the lies and spins. The truth will triumph eventually.

Actually, Gore entered the 2000 election with pretty good favorables. His unfavorables shot up when:

1. he was fighting the thugs in Florida (this was explainable. the GOP thugs were bashing him on recounts, and liberals and Democrats weren't fighting for Gore hard enough).

2. they rose again in 2002 for some mysterious reason (the major thing I can think of is Gore's opposition to the war, but that didn't get enough coverage in the press to have moved the numbers just like that).

Let us look at Gallup trends:


CNN/USA Today/Gallup  Poll.MoE ±  5.

"I'm going to read the names of some prominent people. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If you've never heard of someone, please just say so. Al Gore."

Favorable// Unfavorable

    6/27-29/03     49     45     6        
    12/16-17/02     49     45     6        

Mysterious rise in unfavs in 2002:
    9/23-26/02     46     47     7        
    4/29 - 5/1/02     46     48     6        

    8/3-5/01     52     42     6        
    4/20-22/01     55     41     4        
    1/15-16/01     56     41     3

After concession/withdrawal:
    12/15-17/00     57     40     3        

During recounts:
    12/2-4/00     46     52     2        

Shortly after the election:
    11/13-15/00     53     44     3        

Post convention:
    8/18-19/00     64     30     6

In other words, Gore paid the price for fighting the good fights. It is now our job to set the record straight.

Right now, my assessment is that a good poll will find his favorables around 45+% and unfavs 45-%, with unfavorables dropping slightly because of the positive coverage he got recently.

If Gore steps in and people are told of the lies and spins that have been said about him and hence will reassess their misconception in that light, his ratings will significantly improve.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-17 06:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Edwadrs would be great...

No, Gore is misunderstood because of the lies and spins. The truth will triumph eventually.

Maybe. But I'd bet a nickel it wouldn't be until after the election.

I think you're living in a dream world if you think the truth could be heard over the anti-Gore noise that'd be put out in the '08 campaign.

Remember, the (R)'s have hundreds of millions of dollars to spend on making the (D) candidate look awful. They will spend it. Like it or not, Gore starts with pretty high unfavorables and the Right will make sure everyone hears about every single thing they can dream up to push the unfavorable feelings as high as possible.

I like Gore. But one should stare reality in the face. And reality is that Gore-as-politician has a much larger target on his chest than Gore-as-environmentalist. If I were a (R) campaign operative, I'd be licking my chops at the prospect of a Gore nomination, thinking, "Those Dems. They're making it too easy."

by KB 2006-07-18 05:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwadrs would be great...

His unfavorables are only low to mid forties, which are not that bad.

And we already know what kind of stuff they'll try to spin.

Gore has the least baggage in real terms, unlike others like Hillary, who may be made to carry Bill Clinton's real baggage (like the blue dress) or some of her own posturing and stunt making since getting elected. Or Edwards, who jumped all over the place on the war (Edwards will be crucified for co-sponsoring the war, and then not voting for the $87 billion in late 2008, if he is the nominee. Trust me)

(R)'s have hundreds of millions of dollars to spend on making the (D) candidate look awful. They will spend it.

They will do so on any (D), and remember where Kerry ended up in just over a month in late 2004?

We're better off with a known quantity and be prepared with defense for the stuff they already spun about him than be shocked out of out wits in late 2008 again.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-18 05:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwadrs would be great...

Gore and HRC both have gobs of baggage, no doubt. Edwards may get trashed about the war, but there's no way he's as easy a target as the other two.

And the (R)'s will certainly spend the money to make any (D) look awful, of course. My point is that "the truth" about Gore that you think will eventually come out...won't come out until after all that money is spent and the election is over.

We disagree about your assertion that we're "better off with a known quantity." I'd rather the (D)'s took a shot with Clark or Feingold or {whoever} rather than folks with great big targets painted on them.

by KB 2006-07-18 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwadrs would be great...

Gore's "baggage"  is fictitious creation with little factual basis.

You have no idea how easy it is to expose Edwards' war inconsistency (which all too real). Do you know why?

Because Edwards was also on the Senate Intelligence Committee, and hence he can't use the excuse of being fooled into voting for the war. It was HIS JOB to ensure that misleading information was exposed, as Bob Graham was trying hard to do.

Then to turn around and not vote for the $87 billion, with this or that excuse, but with the reality being that they (he and Kerry) wanted to catch up to Howard Dean.

The republicans will have a field day in fall'08 if we make the blunder of nominating Edwards.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-07-18 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwadrs would be great...

Gore's "baggage"  is fictitious creation with little factual basis.

Ooooooooooookay, fine. I think your view is, um, perhaps a wee bit slanted. I don't recall there being any dearth of stuff thrown around by the (R)'s in 2000. I still say the truth wouldn't sink into the public's consciousness until after the election.

...a bunch of words about Edwards.

I don't care about Edwards, particularly. So your comments may or may not be accurate. Someone who cares can address them, if they want.

by KB 2006-07-19 09:14AM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll
I don't understand why any of you would think there was foul play going on for Edwards, any more than for Clark or for Feingold. I myself changed my vote from the last straw poll to Edwards after his speech about poverty to the National Press Club. Edwards has completely changed from 2004, and he's explained why. In 04, he was controlled by consultants and pollsters who choreographed his every move. Now, he is authentic, speaks from his heart with earnest, and truly cares deeply about a big idea, social justice for the poor and the middle class. He's come out against his own vote for the vote, very strongly, and now says we need to withdraw, along the lines essentially of the Kerry-Feingold amendment. The increased support he's getting is because he's really great, and if you want to eliminate the possibility of freeping, tell Bowers to eliminate duplicate votes from the same IP address and see what the results are then.
I bet Edwards wins handily, especially since I'm sure Clark and Feingold people are stuffing the poll to the extreme.
by ahf8 2006-07-17 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

Go Edwards!

by Mullibok 2006-07-17 06:47PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

Hurray for Ballot-stuffing. Thanks for making this poll absolutely worthless.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-17 07:54PM | 0 recs
ballot stuffing

Perhaps it actually helps measure things like netroots support and the size of their mailing list as well as just the myDD membership.  I have occasionally been reminded to vote in polls by campaigns other than the one I actually voted for...

by Luam 2006-07-17 08:16PM | 0 recs
Re: ballot stuffing

ballot stuffing is just wayyyy too easy in this type of poll. I know it has happened in every poll, but this is ridiculous (traditionally for Edwards towards the end of each poll).

Mailing lists have absolutely nothing to do with this, trust me. Edwards and Feingold draft sites did not send anything out.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-17 09:54PM | 0 recs
Re: ballot stuffing

why don't you think this poll was majorly stuffed for clark. it seems like there are three people on the net who are for clark and they keep voting and voting and voting. i don't think any of the past polls actually showed the netroots support for clark, just the rabid support of a few. edwards seems to actually have gotten more support, he was a far-away fourth in the last poll with only 5%, and now he is competing for first with 25%. i think the news from this poll is edwards' increased support in the netroots, just an observation.

by ahf8 2006-07-18 04:19AM | 0 recs
ballot stuffing

guys, there's a really easy way to fix this stuffing problem, at least partially, and figure out the real results, just eliminate duplictae ip addresses, a huge part of the problem. i don't think that any of the presidential pacs started emailing their mailing lists for this poll, no 1. because it's not that important, and no. 2, because, i'm on all of the mailing lists and i haven't gotten anything. by eliminating ip address duplicates, we should be able to see real results

by ahf8 2006-07-17 08:22PM | 0 recs
Re: July Straw Poll

I think the events in the Middle East will hurt .999 AU.

by fat karl 2006-07-18 06:36AM | 0 recs

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