Dems' Ballot Strength Holding in Individual Races

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Jul 13, 2006 at 08:44:28 AM EDT

As the Democrats have maintained a robust lead in generic congressional balloting for several months, some have questioned whether strong national numbers could actually be parlayed into wins in individual races this fall. But polls released yesterday from two Republican-leaning districts in which a GOP incumbent is facing a credible Democratic challenger indicate that the Democrats are indeed competitive in the campaigns they need to win in order to retake the House this fall.

Public Policy Polling (.pdf) -- NC-11
Likely Voters
Charles Taylor (R) -- 42
Heath Shuler (D) -- 46
With Leaners
Charles Taylor (R) -- 45
Heath Shuler (D) -- 51
Momentum Analysis (D) -- OH-2
Jean Schmidt (R) -- 44
Victoria Wulsin (D) -- 44

In 2004, George W. Bush pulled in 57 percent of the vote in North Carolina's 11th district and 64 percent of the vote in Ohio's second congressional district, so by no means was it a foregone conclusion that these races would be so competitive at this point. In fact, the rankings released yesterday by the Cook Political Report (.pdf) do not even list OH-2 as potentially competitive.

While it is true that neither Shuler nor Wulsin are above 50 percent without leaners and that at times when polling has shown Democrats leading but under 50 percent the Democrat has not always gone on to win (think Francine Busby), the Democrats have a real shot at winning in both of these Republican districts.

If enough of these GOP-held districts present the Democrats with an opportunity for a pick-up, the Democrats need not win each one, but only a healthy percentage in order to retake the House in November. And I believe now that the Democrats are fast approaching the threshold at which there are enough Republican seats in play to win.

Tags: Generic Congressional Ballot, House 2006, NC-11, OH-02 (all tags)

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Re: Dems' Ballot Strength Holding in Individual Ra

Shuler can't be considered the dark horse candidate anymore. I'm glad he's getting so much press.

by Robert P 2006-07-13 08:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems' Ballot Strength Holding in Individual Ra

The Shuler poll also included a disproportionate number of GOP voters, 44%-34% Dems. In reality, the district has a slight majority of Dem voters, so Shuler's lead could be even larger.

by Bear83 2006-07-13 11:39AM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems' Ballot Strength Holding in Individual Ra

Well the guy IS a legend in that part of the country. So he does get the fame bump as well. I wish him luck.

by yitbos96bb 2006-07-13 03:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems' Ballot Strength Holding in Individual Ra

Plus he seems more a moderate Republican than a Democrat. He's pro-life, anti-amnesty for Immigration. On the flip, he seems to be at least willing to discuss universal Healthcare and is all for making small business healthcare more afforable with tax credits and expanded pools (a good start), he is for social security, and he is against No child left behind.

by yitbos96bb 2006-07-13 03:32PM | 0 recs

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Working our hardest

to take back NY's 19th. John Hall for Congress

by Lizzy 2006-07-13 09:01AM | 0 recs

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Keep pushing

As far as I'm concerned, Schuler became the race leader at least a month ago. I'm starting to wonder when NC-08 will start picking up on the MSM ink.

Cook Political report (a chart I highly respect) dropped TN-04 (D) off the maps completely this week but had no change for the republicans.

I think we need Cook to list 25 races as "toss ups" to guarantee a house take over, we got 14 right now (15 with TX-22 on it's way over)

Still wondering when TX-14 (Sklar), TX-21 (Courage), NE-01 (Fmr. Lt. Gov. Moul), and NC-08 (Kissel) will get added.

TX-22 (my district!) I think should have been moved up to toss up this week.

by Trowaman 2006-07-13 09:04AM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems' Ballot Strength Holding in Individual Ra

Check out this video

http://dccc.org/multimedia/archives/new_ directions/

by heyAnita 2006-07-13 09:48AM | 0 recs

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Re: Dems' Ballot Strength

The fundraising numbers are going to shock some people, as seen at Swing State Project and with 6 Dem challengers with over $1 million cash on hand at this stage. I think there are already enough races in play (at least 30), with more added all the time.

by Mimikatz 2006-07-13 10:11AM | 0 recs

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Very Important!!!

I have never doubted that generic ballot numbers can translate into individual races, the question is only if they will--which has to depend, in large part, on the candidates themselves, and how they choose to campaign. This is why I've posted monthly on how the congressional generic numbers compare to other global indicators. I see it as a good indication of potential.

But we're now getting into the early stages of crunch time, where the challengers are starting to really show what they've done with that potential. The Wulsin/Schmidt race is particularly encouraging, given that Paul Hackett was regarded as an anomaly. Well, he was certainly exceptional. But I think Wulsin is showing he was no anomaly.

We're in a position to make major gains in both Ohio and Indiana. That's huge. Too bad we're not running anyone against Lugar. Not that's we'd win, necessarily. Just spread their resources more, and maybe get some good quotes from him to use against other GOP candidates, as he stakes out his independence from Bush.

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-07-13 11:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: OH-02

Mean Jean took a pounding from Paul Hackett to win that seat; then she took a pounding (and rightly so) in public opinion for mouthng off about Jack Murtha; then she took a pounding from Bob McEwen to keep the nomination.

Somebody get Victoria Wulsin some boxing gloves. The incumbent is ready for a KO.

by Christopher Walker 2006-07-13 01:30PM | 0 recs