by Matt Stoller, Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 12:57:06 PM EDT
The current nobody on the R line is dropping out because of a gambling scandal, not because Republicans are going to put up a serious candidate and hope to win in a three way race. Nope, it's because he gambled.
I wonder if Lieberman's move to run as an independent is still principled.
Tags: Connecticut, Joe Lieberman, Ned Lamont (all tags)
If there is a serious Republican nominee, which Schlesinger has not been, Lieberman will lose an important part of the base for his "Plan B."
The other possibility is that the Rs may field even more of a nobody to ensure Lamont does not win in November.
But there's this anti-war republican who's promised to run on her own party line in the general. She might go for the GOP primary now if that's still legal, but she would probably need the approval of the state GOP establishment to do that. Anybody know what the actual law is here?
I think she would need to petition to be on the GOP primary, as Ned Lamont would have if he hadn't gotten enough delegate votes. But I'm not sure if she has time. Wouldn't that be something? An anti-war anti-bush republican, Lamont, and Leiberman as the only pro war candidate?
Its a gamble though one whether Lieberman would have sucked up more of Lamonts votes or more of the Republican's votes. I heard that an anti-war Republican was joining the race?
The GOP should just go with Lieberman -- no other candidate could do more to help Bush.
The Republicans could really stick it to Lamont by choosing not to run anyone at all...
"Republicans are rumored to have some moguls of their own interested in jumping into the fray." The Hotline
Don't you see what is happening here. Rell is going to win a landslide and the Rs see a chance to win this seat in a 3 way race. They are trying to force Schlesinger out so they have a stronger candidate.
I re-read Matt's post and realize this is redundant. Prediction - Chris Shays or Rob Simmons will jump into this race. They probably have a better shot at winning a 3 way Senate race than holding on to their House seats.
I honestly don't see how Shays could do this, since he already endorsed Joe Lieberman.
And I don't think Simmons would take the chance. He's got a much better chance of keeping his House seat.
My suspicion right now is that the Republicans are clearing the way for Lieberman to win in the General. I wouldn't put it past him to be making deals on both sides.
I always thought the smart play for Bush and Lieberman would be for Bush to appoint Lieberman to either Defense or Homeland Security, then Jodi Rell appoints Chris Shays to fill the Senate vacancy. Shays as an incumbent actually has a better chance of winning statewise than at holding on to his House seat. You reward someone who has been helpful to the administration, get rid of an incompetent department head, and have a good chance of a Senate pickup. The cost is conceding one House seat.
I don't understand why they don't do this? Lack of imagination? Bush is happy with how Defense and DHS are being run?
And this has stopped them before how? Wolfowitz, Perle... Half the Neo-Cons are up to their necks falling over the right-wing in Israel. The Rapture Right approves because they advance the goal of spreading Israel from the Jordon to the sea at which time Armageddon can begin.
I even agree.
But here's the thing, I was slumming it in the right wing blogs when they were talking about this and it seemed to be, pardon the term, but the elephant in the room.
I guess it shows how sheltered I am, I was shocked that would even be considered a factor!
I mean other then the Rell appointment it's win/win, because i'd prefer Joe to Rumsfeld, and it gets him the hell out of the Senate.
but that Rell appointment is a biggie.
However if it happens after he loses the primary... hey awesome!
-C.
I'd be surprised if they are "clearing the way" for Lieberman. They have a good shot at winning this seat in a 3 way race and Rell at the top of ticket. It probably won't take much more than 40% to win. They are clearing the way for a much stronger candidate. The Hotline article as much as said it.
I might be wrong about Shays or Simmons but I'd bet my last dollar they are not giving this seat to Lieberman. Why have a fake Repub when you can have a real one?
the presumptive Republican nominee in the debate as though he were a serious threat to win if Joe ran as an independent.
This news makes Joe's attempt at extortion -- vote for me in the primary or I help the Republican win the seat -- look even more pathetic.
Does the Democratic leadeship in the Senate (Reid, Schumer) realize they are getting played? Does anyone seriously now expect Lieberman to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, and control of the Senate is at stake?
That said, I think whoever is behind this is being too clever by half. First, this move is too obvious. I was one of those who thought starting petitions to run as an independent was a dumb move for Lieberman because the chances of him losing the Democratic primary were fairly remote. However, the main impetus behind Lamont's campaign is that Joe is effectively a Republican. If he prepares to run in the general as an independent, with Republican support (as would be the situation if they didn't run a candidate), that confirms it. Lieberman might as well put out a press release saying "my opponent is right."
Second, there are still quite a few liberal Republicans in Connecticut who will always pull the party lever but don't really agree with the platform. They can't be counted on to vote for a consevative independent.
Connecticut also voted for Kerry. The more the general becomes a straight Lieberman-Lamont race, assuming Lamont wins the primary, that favors Lamont. I don't think Republicans plus the Hartford machine is going to be enough.
"Hounding Schlesinger off the ticket would open an opportunity for a wealthy Republican aspirant to join what could be a three way race after the August 8th Democratic primary ...." The Hotline 7/12/06
What makes anyone think that the Repubs are clearing the way for Lieberman? Karl Rove has figured out he has a chance to capture this Senate seat and he could care less about protecting Lieberman. He wants a real Repub. The Rs are working to get a weak candidate off the ballot so they have a strong one for the potential 3 way race.
Who could help Bu$h any more than Joementum already has? This is his reward; he keeps the seat, and switches parties and gets a committee chairmanship as a reward.
the bastard.
Anyone who believes that the party of Tom DeLay, Conrad Burns, Bob Ney and Ernie Fletcher has suddenly developed the scruples to jettison a candidate because of concern over gambling has been smoking a little too much ganja.
The Republicans are trying to help Lieberman; he's just too valuable to them to not fight hard for. By thrusting an antiwar candidate into the slot, they're probably hoping to split that vote to let Joe take the rest.
I don't know if that would work. It's not JUST about the war, and CT is a blue state anyway.
If Joe had just said he'd abide by the primary results, none of this would be happening. Either Joe or Ned wipes the floor with the pug in a one-on-one race.
But a three-way race is different. By nominating a "stronger" candidate, the game here might be to guilt-trip Democrats into voting for Joe in the primary on the "electability" canard, and thus eliminate the three-way possibility.
I don't know exactly what the thinking is here. I CAN say with enough assurance that this is ALL about keeping Ned Lamont off the Senate. If he makes it into the club, it would set a Very Disturbing Precedent for the established power structure.
Again, this is all on Joe. The pugs are exploiting his self-importance and sense of entitlement to try to gain themsleves a seat, with their reliable ally Joe as the fallback.
Will it work? Who knows; this is all uncharted territory for all parties involved.
But we need to be ready.
(Also posted on Kos under my id there, Buzzer.)
So why don't the Reeps just make JoeMo their nominee?
Because he's going to lose and they know it.
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