Busby Predictions Thread
by Matt Stoller, Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 02:37:42 PM EDT
Let's predict percentages. I have my prediction, which I'll release in a few hours.
Tags: Francine Busby (all tags)
Comments
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Busby 47.5%
Bilbray 45.2%
Others 7.3%
Angelides 49.7%
Westly 48.7%
Others 1.6%
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Busby 49.8%
Bilbray 46.6%
Others 3.6%
Angelides 50.2%
Westley 47.5%
Others 2.3%
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Busby 49.5
Bilbray 47.2
Others 3.3
Not even going to try to touch the GOV race.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Did the Busby gaff hurt?
But I won't argue with Mimikatz's numbers. But then, the Rethugs spent a huge amount of money trashing Busby. Will Repub. voters come out for the not-so-exciting Bilbray.
Biggest question: will the national mood (wrong track) effect even the redest of the red?
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
if one mistake hurt that much then it was never going to be in the first place.
it what the Rethugs do with it
It's not the gaffe----it's the echo chamber they create. And I don't know how shw responded but it should have been hard fast and put it back onto them.
they have a big bull horn
Untrue
The correct f'up can turn races on a dime. I witnessed the classic example in Ohio on the Glenn/DeWine race. Glenn was getting killed for the Keating 5, and absolutely no one thought Glenn was going back.
The Mikey ran the World's Dumbest Campaign Commercial in History. He was trying to play off the Energizer Bunny and the latest Glenn scandal (he hadn't paid off his last campaign's debts). It had a toy Astronaut banging a drum with the catch phrsae "He keeps oweing...and oweing..and oweing".
I sat stunned. In one fell swooop those idiots had...
1. Reminded everyone in OH that he was the first American in Space, and a national hero.
2. Insulted the one institution everyone still loved, the 60's Space Program.
By the next day his 20pt lead had fallen to 8 in the polls. By the end of the week he was 5pts behind. He never recovered.
I think given the majority distaste for illegal aliens in the public, this one touched a nerve in the same way. My bet, it cost her 5-10%.
pulled from the previous thread
CA-50: Bilbray 51, Busby 46, Others 3. (Too many disappointments for me to be hopeful about this. Although last year I was expecting Hackett to lose 55-45 in OH-2, so who knows.)
California Governor: Angelides 48, Westly 46, Others 6.
Busby Predictions
Bilbray 47.8
Busby 47.9
Others 4.3
Random: MD gov: Duncan beats O'Malley on September 12.
Re: Busby Predictions
Yeah, but the more O'Malley tries to focus on what's gone wrong in Montgomery County (where Duncan is county executive for those you not familiar with MD politics), voters will realize that it's one of the best run jurisdictions in the nation. We got 5 out of the county's 24 high schools in Newsweek's top 100 public schools. How can it get better than that?
Re: Busby Predictions
The rich parts of the county are predominantly west of Rockville Pike, in and around Bethesda/Chevy Chase, and a few pockets East of the pike. Check out Wheaton, Silver Spring (not downtown), Aspen Hill, and a few other places and you'll see the side of Montgomery County that people never talk about. The vast majority of those folks living in those places are not rich.
The county's average income might be high, but it's the rich parts that are seriously skewing the numbers.
Re: Busby Predictions
The point is that the county has a HUGE tax base to work with b/c of that average income. That DOES help a ton, especially for funding education.
Don't take me wrong, I like both candidates. But IMO there is NO way that Duncan ends up winning this thing. Honestly, I wish the guy had just run for Senate. I think he would have won the nomination and the general with relative ease.
Re: Busby Predictions
Sorry for the late reply.
I agree with you about Duncan and the Senate. He would have won that race -- primary and general election -- easily. Duncan wants to be Governor though.
That said, Maryland is lucky to have two good candidates to take on Ehrlich. Either one will be far better than Ehrlich.
Re: Busby Predictions
We have another 3 months to argue this one but I bet O'Malley crushes Duncan. O'Malley has done wonders in a tough city whereas Montgomery County is one of the richest counties in the country. A stone pillar could run Mont. Co. and look good. Even in Montgomery the people doing oh so well are mad about uncontrolled growth. O'Malley is one of the most gifted politicians I've ever encountered and one of the very few who is just as gifted at governing.
Re: How much did Duncan
We got 5 out of the county's 24 high schools
have to do with this, do you think? MCPS have been highly-rated for a long time. And how is it that Whitman didn't make the Top 100?
(proud graduate of one of the 5)
Re: Busby Predictions
Within the past year I moved out of Montgomery County and I have to agree -- it is one of the best run jurisdictions in the Country. It certainly was the best run jurisdiction I have ever lived in. The issues of the day in the county largely have their roots in the fast paced development and population explosion going on there. Some people, myself included, did have issues with Duncan's budgets though because he consistently sought budgets that, percentage wise, grew substantially faster than the pace of inflation (especially his 2006 budget). The budget was beginning to grate on people around the time that I left.
That said, Maryland's system of government sure is more efficient than my new home -- New York.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
CA-50
Busby 48.5
Bilbray 48.0
Others 3.5
Montana Senate
Tester 51
Morrison 49
Burns 70
Keenan 30
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Busby - 48.5%
Bilbray - 48.0%
Others - 3.5%
I'm still holding out hope.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Bilbray 49.4
Busby 47.5
Others 3.1
Tester 54
Morrison 46
Westley 52
Angelides 47
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Bilbray - 49%
Busby - 48%
Blame Westly and Angelides for depressing Democratic turnout, but Angelides beats Westly 53%-45%.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
I think the tide has turned so I'm going to predict something outlandish.
Busby - 58%
Billbray - 40%
As for gov... sigh.
Angelides: 46.3%
Westly: 46.3%
No DC papers for Busby...
Bilbray 49
Busby 45
Griffith/other 4-6
Gov
Angelides 51
Westly 49
Bonus--CA 36th
Harman 74
Winograd 26
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Busby: 51%
Bilbray: 46%
Others: 3%
Angelides: 55%
Westly: 45%
Angelides has the unions.
Other winners: Bowen, Brown, Spears
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
CA 50
Busby 47
Bilbray 46
CA Gov
Angelides 52
Westley 44
CA 11 Dem
McNerney 53
Filson 42
CA 11 GOP
Pombo 65
McCloskey 25
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
My prediction: Hackett all over again. At the end of the counting, Bilbray wins 52-48.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Kossites aren't the problem - the political activists who visit DailyKos will vote. Westly and Angelides weren't exactly inspirational and they trashed each other. Woohoo! I have never been less enthusiastic to vote - I voted but I really don't care about the outcome of the governor primary.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
If Busby made this comment a week or two weeks ago, it might've hurt. The gaffe isn't getting too much press outside the right wing media. It may have a mild effect but that might be all it takes still though; Remember the Republicans have no reason to come out and vote because Ahnuld is for all intensive purposes unopposed in his primary and the big ticket cabinet races like Lt. Governor, Atty. General, and Secretary of State already have annointed candidates in Tom McClintock, well there is a token primary there that he will likely win with 80+%, Charles Poochigian, and Bruce McPherson. While we do have primaries for all races. So here's my predictions.
Gov:
Angelides- 50%
Westly- 45%
Becnel- 2%
Others- 3%
50th District:
Busby- 49%
Bilbray- 46%
Others- 5%
For disclosure purposes I'm supporting:
Phil Angelides for Gov
Jackie Speier for Lt. Gov
Jerry Brown for Atty. General
Debra Bowen for Sec. of State
Joe Dunn for Controller
Treasurer nominee will be Bill Lockyer for sure
Don't care for Ins. Commissioner
You want a wildcard? Winograd breaks 40% in her challenge to Harman and maybe if there's a miracle wins. Stronger than expected primary challenges have been happening lately. It is possible.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Also
Jerry McNerney got the overwhelming endorsement of the party
Jerry McNerney- 55%
Steve Filson- 41%
Steve Thomas- 4%
Pombo- 60%
McCloskey- 35%
Benigno- 5%
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Billbray 53%
Busby 44%
Others 3%
Angelides 54%
Westly 46%
Brown 65%
Delgadillo 35%
81 yes 54%
81 no 46%
82 yes 48%
82 no 52%
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
The primary in the 26th District interests me too. Everyone's behind Russell Warner but I'm still rooting for Cynthia Rodriguez Matthews. Russ is the DLC's dream for California wile Cynthia is a strong progressive. This could be close. No idea of the percentages but Warner wins by about 5-10 percent probably.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
A local race? I'm not going to try and predict. I don't think that the comment yesterday hurt too much, I mean, I'm sure it affected someone, somewhere, but you'd have to find it, and I didn't see it in the national papers I read (Boston Globe, NYT), but admittedly I'm in Boston, and Boston and San Diego can't be much further apart.
I'm prepared for about anything. I think it could go down 60/40 for Bilbray, simply because the district is so red. That wouldn't surprise me and it won't depress me for November either... but it also won't surprise me to see her pull out a win. I guess I feel like a win would mean much more than a loss, because a Republican is odds-on favorite in the district, and only breaking the status quo would really have meaning to me. (Of course, if Billbray wins with 80%, which he won't, that would also say something to me ;p).
I do think Kos's temper tantrum (and I say that with the utmost respect for Markos) was unhelpful. It was hardly the iceberg that sunk the ship, if she loses, but it's not the sort of thing that progressives do to get good notice. And there's always the risk that blogs be picked up in the so-called "MSM," either in one of the cable news channel's blog round-ups or in a newspaper article discussing the effects of the netroots on elections. The likelihood may be low, but just because using your forehead to bash a soda can may not be fatal doesn't mean you should do it ;p. Causality or not, it's just a dumb idea ;p.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
50th:
Bilbray 49.8
Busby 48.2
Other 2
Ca Gov:
Angelides 51
Westly 46
36th:
Harman 69
Winograd 27
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Bilbray 51
Busby 49
Tester 51
Morrison 49
I think both Bilbray and Tester have the momentum that will put them over the top in close races. Dont despair friends, we should never win in CA 50 and a close showing (as much as no one wants to hear it) really is a moral victory. Real victories to come in November.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Busby 48.2
Bilbray 47.6
Pombo 64
McClosky 34
Oakland Mayor
De La Fuentes 41
Dellums 38
Nadel 14
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Bilbray 49.1%
Busby 46.4%
Angelides 54%
Westly 45%
Speier and Bowen win. Prop 81 passes, 82 loses.
Tester 53%
Morrison 47%
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Busby 47.5
Bilbray 47.0
others 5.5
Andelides 45
Westly 43
Others 12
Tester 51
Morrison 49
Harman 54
Winogard 46
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Rooting hard for Francine Busby but feel there's just too damn many Republicans in that district.
Bilbray 52%
Busby 44%
Other 4%
_ _ _
Gubernatorial primary. It's interesting that both Feinstein and Boxer are in Angelides' camp. Not bad, just interesting. That plus recent momentum suggest an Angelides win by a comfortable margin.
Angelides 56%
Westly 44%
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
The biggest obstacle to Democrats winning is Democrats who assume that we lose and there are "too many Republicans" in Place X.
If the polls don't convince you minds and hearts have changed, I don't know what to do with you.
With the President at 33 nationally and even lower in California y'all think the GOP'er is a shoo-in? That's crazy talk. That's abused spouse talk. That's "hit me again" talk.
And they will hit you again, and again and again and again, until you people get up on your hind legs and fight back.
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
Bilbray: 46%
Busby: 44%
(Man, I hope this is dead wrong. I've met Francine Busby, and she is, for lack of a more eloquent phrase, a very good person.)
------
Tester: 48%
Morrison: 45%
------
Westly: 0%
Angelides: 0%
(I'm pretty confident about this one.)
Re: Busby Predictions Thread
The biggest obstacle to Democrats winning is Democrats who assume that we lose and there are "too many Republicans" in Place X.
If the polls don't convince you minds and hearts have changed, I don't know what to do with you.
With the President at 33 nationally and even lower in California y'all think the GOP'er is a shoo-in? That's crazy talk. That's abused spouse talk. That's "hit me again" talk.
And they will hit you again, and again and again and again, until you people get up on your hind legs and fight bac
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