May Senate Forecast
by Chris Bowers, Tue May 23, 2006 at 08:05:04 AM EDT
April Forecast
Overall: The Senate is now in play. However, like last month, I predict a three to five seat gain for Democrats.
Thirty-second analysis. The addition of Arizona to the "already competitive" tier gives Democrats a sixth potential pickup. Arizona moves up two tiers in one month with a wave of new poll results showing Kyl under 50%. In an otherwise stagnant environment, this sharp movement should offer hope to Democrats in states like Nevada, Tennessee, and Virginia. While Rhode Island threatens to slip back a tier, it still is not feasible to project Democrats capturing the Senate (yet). Democrats seem to be gradually improving their Senate chances every month.
You can see money totals here. Polling can be found at Rasmussen, Zogby, Survey USA, and Polling Report. Details on individual campaigns can be found in the extended entry.
Overall: The Senate is now in play. However, like last month, I predict a three to five seat gain for Democrats.
Thirty-second analysis. The addition of Arizona to the "already competitive" tier gives Democrats a sixth potential pickup. Arizona moves up two tiers in one month with a wave of new poll results showing Kyl under 50%. In an otherwise stagnant environment, this sharp movement should offer hope to Democrats in states like Nevada, Tennessee, and Virginia. While Rhode Island threatens to slip back a tier, it still is not feasible to project Democrats capturing the Senate (yet). Democrats seem to be gradually improving their Senate chances every month.
You can see money totals here. Polling can be found at Rasmussen, Zogby, Survey USA, and Polling Report. Details on individual campaigns can be found in the extended entry.
Likely Pickups
Democrats: Pennsylvania:
Santorum has still not passed 41% in any poll since Casey announced lat March. I have had conversations with people who try to convince me that Casey remains the underdog because of Santorum's enormous warchest, but I don't buy it. There are reasons to be worried about Casey's declining favorables, but Santorum's are declining at an equal rate. Santorum remains the least popular Senator in the country, and the least popular person in the state. An incumbent with 90% name ID who can't break 41% is clearly going to have to come, ahem, from behind.
Republicans:None
Already Competitive
Democrats: Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island
Democrats: Tennessee, Virginia
My analysis in these two states is unchanged form last month.
Keep an Eye Out
Democrats: Nevada
With the movement we have seen in Arizona, with the huge influx of new voters in Nevada, with the wonderful work of Sarah Carter, and with Ensign's approval still below 50%, I refuse to give up on this race. Jack Carter can still take this, even if it remains a longshot.
Republicans: Connecticut, Hawaii, Michigan
Already off the board
Republicans: Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Texas, Utah, Wyoming
Democrats: California, Delaware, Florida, Massachusetts, New York, New Mexico, North Dakota, West Virginia
Democrats: Pennsylvania:
Santorum has still not passed 41% in any poll since Casey announced lat March. I have had conversations with people who try to convince me that Casey remains the underdog because of Santorum's enormous warchest, but I don't buy it. There are reasons to be worried about Casey's declining favorables, but Santorum's are declining at an equal rate. Santorum remains the least popular Senator in the country, and the least popular person in the state. An incumbent with 90% name ID who can't break 41% is clearly going to have to come, ahem, from behind.
Republicans:None
Already Competitive
Democrats: Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island
- In Arizona, in just one week, several polls suddenly showed this race to be very competitive. Behavior Research Center saw the race drop from a 56-26 lead for Kyl, to a very competitive 40-33 lead for Kyl. In their most recent poll, Pederson led among independents 31-19. Also, in another poll, Pederson closed from a 60-26 deficit in January to a 45-25 deficit in May. The Pederson ad blitz could be seen slowly eating into Kyl's lead even before May, as Rasmussen showed Kyl's lead drop to 51-35, and Arizona St. saw it drop to 42-31. Pederson is up on the air, and the numbers in the race are moving fast. Further, Pederson is a very wealthy man, so he will have plenty of cash to compete with Kyl's $7.2M warchest as the campaign continues. We have a race out in Arizona.
- In Rhode Island, Chafee's position is becoming more solidified. He has racked up endorsements form a series of "progressive" advocacy groups, such as NARAL, LCV and the Sierra Club. Matt Brown's scandal has forced him out of the Democratic primary, and if polls are any indication, it hasn't helped the lone remaining Democrat, Sheldon Whitehouse. Rhode Island College recently showed Chafee over 50% for the first time in this campaign. However, ARG still shows Chafee under 50% in his primary against Laffey, so this race stays in the "already competitive" category. Polls show Laffey being beaten by Whitehouse 2-1. Go Laffey!
- In Montana, following the Democratic primary two weeks from today, this race has a chance to move up into the "likely pickup" category. Incumbent Conrad Burns has seen his approval numbers drop to Santorum levels, and both Democratic challengers, Jon Tester and John Morrison, now comfortably lead him in the polls. However, Burns has a lot more money than either Democrat, so I need to see how the primary winner survives Burns attacks before moving his race up a tier. The latest poll on the primary had Morrison up 35-28. Jon Tester is netroots endorsed.
- In Missouri and Ohio, nothing has really changed. These two races remain toss-ups.
- In Minnesota, Republican Mark Kennedy has a lot of money and Rasmussen shows him competitive with Democrat Amy Klobuchar. I have never seen Kennedy reach even 45% in any poll, but for fear of being too optimistic I am leaving Minnesota in this tier. Kennedy does have a lot of money, and his running in a state with advanced, Thune bloggers 2.0 conservative netroots.
- In New Jersey, Scott Shields fueled Bob Menendez is regularly tied with empty suit Tom Kean Jr. This is going to be an expensive race, and while New Jersey is a blue state, Democratic officials in the state have low approval ratings across the board. Of course, that was the case in 2002, 2004, and 2005 as well. If Menendez pulls out of this race with a 5-10% victory, remind me to never trust New Jersey pollsters again. The high number of undecideds they all find always, always seem to break for the Democrats on the ballot.
Democrats: Tennessee, Virginia
- In Tennessee, Ford is slipping. While no Republican is over 50% yet, the days when Ford was tied with his potential Republican challengers are over. Ford has some money and this race could be competitive as time goes on, but is it overly cynical of me to seriously doubt that an African-American can be elected statewide in the south even now? I don't like typing that, but I sometimes have to wonder what else is holding Ford back.
- In Virginia, I'm moving this race up a notch. I know that Republican Allen has a ridiculous money advantage, that he remains a Republican favorite for 2008, and that Webb and Harris are engaged in a surprisingly vicious Democratic primary despite low fundraising totals. However, Allen's approval rating, favorables, and re-elect numbers hover just above or below the 50% mark in all polls. If the democratic primary winner can get some money, this race could surprise some people. For now, however, it remains only "potentially competitive."
My analysis in these two states is unchanged form last month.
Keep an Eye Out
Democrats: Nevada
With the movement we have seen in Arizona, with the huge influx of new voters in Nevada, with the wonderful work of Sarah Carter, and with Ensign's approval still below 50%, I refuse to give up on this race. Jack Carter can still take this, even if it remains a longshot.
Republicans: Connecticut, Hawaii, Michigan
- In Connecticut, Lieberman refuses to rule out an independent run. He would probably win if he ran as an independent, but then who would he caucus with? In the Democratic primary, Lamont is gaining steam, but I have yet to see a head-to-head match-up between Lamont and any potential Republican nominee. While democrats remain favored, we will have two eyes open on this race at all times.
- In Hawaii, Akaka might be facing a steep primary challenge from Rep. Ed Case. IF case wins the primary, it may have repercussions on the general elections. I'm keeping an eye on this one for a bit.
- In Michigan, Stabenow is blowing away her challengers in all non-Strategic Vision polls. However, her approval rating remains under 50%. Although it is tempting, I am not ready to take it off the board yet. At the very least, we have to wait for the primary.
Already off the board
Republicans: Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Texas, Utah, Wyoming
Democrats: California, Delaware, Florida, Massachusetts, New York, New Mexico, North Dakota, West Virginia
Tags: forecasts, Senate 2006 (all tags)
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