Kyl Continues Major Slide in Arizona

by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 23, 2006 at 03:49:05 PM EDT

Following up on some of Matt's postings and the new Senate race rankings from Chris, it's becoming more and more clear that uber-conservative Jon Kyl is in real trouble in his bid for a third term in the Senate from Arizona.

Taking a look at the latest SurveyUSA 50-state poll and specifically the new list of Senators' approval ratings, Kyl sticks out as one of the most unpopular U.S. Senators today; in fact, he has the fourth highest disapproval rating of any Senator. But as bad as his numbers are today at 44 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval, Kyl's trend is even worse. Over the course of the last two months, during which time Kyl's well-funded and relatively popular Democratic challenger Jim Pederson has been on the air, Kyl's disapproval rating has shot up 11 points. That's right, 11 points in just two months.

Seldom is a Congressman or Senator able to turn off so many voters in such a short period of time without being indicted or being outed as a philanderer. But Kyl has proven adept at offending his constituents -- particularly independents and moderates, as Chris notes in the previous post -- over the past 60 days or so. And if this ignominious trend continues for much longer, Kyl's going to be out of a job fairly soon. If you want to help him end his current occupation, head on over to Pederson's site and throw hime a bone or two.

Tags: Arizona, AZ-Sen, Jim Pederson, Jon Kyl, Senate 2006 (all tags)

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Re: Kyl Continues Major Slide in Arizona

Looks like that primary challenge is doing quite a number on Akaka (HI) too.

by nate pdx 2006-05-23 04:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Continues Major Slide in Arizona

his approval is still 65-27 among Democrats. his slide is more among independents (41-48). anyone know if Hawaii has an open or closed primary?

by johnny longtorso 2006-05-23 06:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Continues Major Slide in Arizona

Open

by delmoi 2006-05-23 08:32PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Continues Major Slide in Arizona

Kyl's one of those guys who just isn't that likeable no matter what he does. When he's in an ad, he just doesn't light anyone's fire.

I think Pederson's strategy of being on TV is key. Arizona is one of those states that really doesn't have grassroots. Indeed, as kos and Armstrong wrote at the end of "Crashing the Gates", Arizona really doesn't have a functional Democratic Party. That's why only TV works. Also, in a state with hundreds of thousand of new residents, mailing lists and such cannot possibly do the job.

And the "new" nature of Arizona's residents is another problem for Kyl. IN addition to new residents being more moderate than natives, 40% of voters in the state weren't even there in 1994 when Kyl first got elected. So he does not really have the power of incumbency that, say, a DeWine has.

by jgarcia 2006-05-23 05:37PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Continues Major Slide in Arizona

I guess Kyl is out of touch with Arizona values.

by illinois062006 2006-05-23 07:25PM | 0 recs

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McCain is the X factor here

He remains popular (62-35 in SUSA) and will do his best to drag Kyl across the finish line. After all, if Kyl goes down, McCain's primary opponents in 2008 will hammer him with it.

Of course, I didn't think Pederson had a real chance, and its clear that he does, so what do I know?

by bosdcla14 2006-05-23 08:00PM | 0 recs

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john morrison said

the west is the best

by Bob Brigham 2006-05-23 08:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: john morrison said

Would that be john morrison, the candidate for Senate in MT? Or Jim Morrison, lead singer for the Doors?

by bluenc 2006-05-23 08:42PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Continues Major Slide in Arizona

This is fascinating (if Kyl's disapproval ratings are a result of Pederson's commercials). As I recall, the Pederson commercials are warm, fuzzy introductions of himself and not issue-related at all. They are very important for inoculating him against future negative attacks from Kyl. But I've never seen such commercials cause someone else's disapproval ratings to soar! If there is a direct causal link here, that suggests to me that many voters are willing to turn to the first positive, viable alternative that they can find; but if there isn't one, then they would resign themselves to accepting what they have. Pederson deserves our thanks for being willing to take this race on.

by Phonatic 2006-05-23 10:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Continues Major Slide in Arizona

Kyl's sister was my High School English teacher. She was the complete opposite of him: warm, funny, inspiring and very progressive. She told us their divergent politics made for interesting Thanksgivings. She was the best teacher I ever had.

I just wanted to say that. I miss Ms. Kyl.

by bkharmony 2006-05-24 06:07AM | 0 recs