Ohio Election Results Thread

Matt was nice enough to hand over the reigns for an evening to talk about OH! IO! and the chaos taking place in the Buckeye State this evening.  If we learned anything today, it's that J. Kenneth Blackwell isn't even fit to run the election process in Ohio, let alone the state itself.  

For the junkie, there are so many intriguing match-ups this evening: A GOP primary for governor pitting Ken Blackwell vs. Attorney General Jim Petro  -- barring a major miracle, the winner will face Congressman Ted Strickland (OH-6) this November.  Will Charilie Wilson's write-in campaign for the 6th get him on the ticket?  You might recall Wilson didn't get enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot and is forced to enter the party through the backdoor.  In turn, the NRCC ran ads pretty much on behalf of one of the Democrats on the ballot to boost his name ID.  What about Jean Schmidt in OH-2?  Republicans rivals were running against Schmidt before the first ballot was cast in August's special election vs. Paul Hackett.  COAST was running ads encouraging Republicans to stay home rather than vote for Schmidt.  The hope was that they could keep her percentage low enough to justify a primary ... and there is.  Not to mention a hot Dem. primary between Thor Jacobs and Vic Wulsin.  There's also a nice little primary involving former Dean for Ohio Communications Director Stephanie Studabaker just to the North in OH-3 with the winner facing 2 term incumbent Mike Turner.

Then there is Ohio netroots darling Subodh Chandra running in a contested Democratic primary against Ohio Democratic Party endorsed candidate (and the man who took the lead during coingate) State Senator Marc Dann.  Much of the love for Paul Hackett inside the state found its way into Subodh's corner.  Of course, Bob Ney (OH-18) has a contested primary that probably won't be close, but will be interesting to see if it becomes a referendum on his corruption.  And also in the 18th, there's a hot Dem. primary between Mayor Joe Sulzer and an upstart Zack Space campaign.  Finally, a three-way dogfight to replace Sherrod Brown in OH-13 between Capri Cafaro, former Congressman Tom Sawyer, and DCCC favorite Betty Sutton.  And I am leaving a few good ones out... What a night!  

Here are some resources for you, and I'll provide updates throughout the evening.

Ohio Secretary of State Election Results
Ohio SoS Statewide Results | Ohio SoS Congressional Results
Buckeye State Blog
OH-2 Blog
Plunderbund
Cincinnati Enquirer Election Page (OH-2)
Akron Beacon Journal (OH-13 & More)
Plain Dealer Election Coverage
Ohio News Network

Update #1: Because of problems at a Cuyahoga County polling place, all election results will be delayed until 9:30 P.M.

Update #2 - 10:10 PM: Well, it looks Chandra's chances have gone up in smoke -- he trails ~ 74 to 26 with 21% of the precincts reporting, almost a 70,000 vote margin. If nothing else, the campaigns web-video favorably comarping Subodh with Apu from the Simpsons is worth one last watch. Also, Charlie Wilson's write-in campaign is holding up ridiculously well in the early stages, outpolling his opponent by a 2 to 1 margin early. And Blackwell holds a 54-46 advantage with that same 21% reporting. Everything else is just way too early.

Update #3 - 10:30 PM: Ted Strickland declares victory with a statement released to supporters (in the extended entry). It's like he almost had it written in advance.

Update #4 - 10:30 PM: On the phone with someone from one of the three campaigns in the 13th, the numbers they have show Sutton at 29% - Cafaro at 26% and Sawyer at 22% and change. Capri's campaign is about concede seeing no way for them to win with the votes still out there.

Update #5 - Big 11:15 Update: *OH-6* -- I'll friggin be. It looks like Charlie Wilson's write-in campaign is going to work! *sigh of relief* The majority of votes have been counted and Wilson has a commanding lead. Even in the counties with a high volume of votes remaining, Wislon is well out-pacing his rivals in the ones that have already come in.

*OH-3* -- Looks like Stephanie Studabaker is going to advance from the Democratic primary to face Mike Turner. Many of you might remember Jane Mitakides took on Turner in 2004.

*OH-13* -- That sigh of relief you hear is coming from the both the DCCC and EMILY'S List. Betty Sutton is going to advance to the general. Capri is about to concede (if she hasn't already) and former Congressman Tom Sawyer's early lead in Summit County has completely evaporated.

*OH-2* -- Looks like this one is going to be a bit closer than Jean Schmidt had hoped. Her Clermont County PLUS strategy has given her a lead, but not commanding enough to promise victory. It's going to come down to Hamilton. After Clermont, Schmidt will probably have around a 1,500 vote lead with 1/2 of Hamilton reporting.

*OH-18* -- I just got a phone call from a friend saying that in the Dem. primary, Space was going to defeat Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer ... the DCCC will not be pleased with that result, at all, in the least. In fact, Ohioelects.com (a site created by a compilation of respected news sources) is calling the race for Space. Sulzer isn't even in 2nd place.

*OH-16* -- Ralph Regula is not going to lose, although he trails right now. His opponent carried Ashland County overwhelmingly, and while that's a surprise to me, Miller is actually from that neck of the woods. Regula will carry Stark County by at least a 2 to 1 margin and win handily.

Update #6 - 11:30 PM Final One: So, Jean Schmidt is going to advance in OH-2 along with Vic Wulsin on the Democratic side. No real big surprises there, although two tough fought primaries. Otherwise, Ken Blackwell and Marc Dann in the two most watched statewide primaries. Charlie Wilson's magical write-in campaign is the story of the night along with Joe Sulzer's implosion against Zach Space in OH-18. Now the question in that race is will Ney resign and allow the party to appoint his successor? Unless I'm forgetting anything, I'll probably move all the analysis and breakdown into the extended entry in a bit. What a night, indeed! It didn't dissapoint.

"I am honored and humbled to accept the Democratic nomination to be Ohio's next governor. I look forward to the weeks and months ahead as we will take to the people a bold and comprehensive vision to return Ohio to greatness."Right now in Ohio we have a leadership that seems to have given up on Ohio. Under their leadership, we've seen our great state buried under an avalanche of scandal, corruption, and, at times, criminal activity.

"Ohio Democrats are united around a clear, workable plan called Turnaround Ohio to get our great state moving in the right direction."Turnaround Ohio aims to keep and grow the jobs we have by investing in Ohio's strengths - like energy production, high-tech manufacturing and small businesses - and the plan will bring the jobs of the future by reforming education from pre-school through college, because, in the future, jobs will go where the workforce is best educated.

"Our mission to restore Ohio to its rightful place as one of the greatest states in the nation starts tonight. Our mission to restore the hope to our state that has for too long been mired in cynicism and despair starts tonight. Our mission to Turnaround Ohio starts tonight."We have faith in the future of Ohio because we believe in the people of Ohio. There is nothing wrong with our state that can't be fixed with our hard work, our passion, and our creativity."I am deeply thankful for this opportunity to work with Ohioans across our state in the weeks and months to come to turnaround our great state."

Tags: Ohio (all tags)

Comments

38 Comments

Re: Ohio Election Results Thread
Go Thor!
by Bob Brigham 2006-05-02 05:29PM | 0 recs
Schmidt is down early...

Don't know what that means, since the district is solid red anyway, but I don't suppose anyone would be sad to see her go, even if she's just replaced by another odious Republican.

Zach Space has a small lead at this point also, which I gauge from my very limited knowledge to be quite the upset if he does end up winning.

by taliesin 2006-05-02 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Schmidt is down early...

my guess is Hamilton County will put her over the top.

by johnny longtorso 2006-05-02 06:29PM | 0 recs
Blackwell at 55.78%

Blackwell's up right now.

by JBLIII 2006-05-02 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio Election Results Thread

Early results from District  6
Wilson, Charles A.-WI         4,652     56.99%
Carr, Bob             2,611     31.99%
Luchansky, John S.            900     11.03%

Hope this holds and Wilson has gotten his act together.

by hilltopper 2006-05-02 06:22PM | 0 recs
something weird in district 14

Ralph Regula is losing slightly to his primary opponent, Matt Miller. what's going on there?

by johnny longtorso 2006-05-02 06:29PM | 0 recs
Re: something weird in district 14

Matt Miller is from Ashland County.  Stark will put Regula well over the top -- that's where the vast majority of votes come from anyway.  But yeah, even those numbers in Ashland are amazing.

Tim

by Tim Tagaris 2006-05-02 06:38PM | 0 recs
that should be 16.

by johnny longtorso 2006-05-02 06:38PM | 0 recs
18
District  18
Space, Zachary T.         10,918     37.38%
Sulzer, Joe                 8,507     29.12%
Stewart, Jennifer         6,562     22.47%
Applegate, Ralph A.         3,222     11.03%
Total Votes     29,209      
by Lizzy 2006-05-02 06:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio Election Results Thread

The plain dealer site seems to be updating much more frequently then the official site:

http://www.cleveland.com/election/electi oncoverage/index.ssf?congress.xml

by dantheman 2006-05-02 06:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio Election Results Thread

Good to see you back doing what you do best....real politics....

by BigDog 2006-05-02 07:06PM | 0 recs
Regula Losing Primary??

I just got off the phone with a friend in Ohio and with 89% of the vote counted, Ralph Regula, who has been in COngress since 1972 and represents Canton, OH is losing by about 10%.  If this holds up (and it owuld take a lot of absentee ballots to change the result)  this would beb an amazing upset.

Regula is not in any scandal, is considered somewhat moderate, although this was widely assumed to be his last election so that his son could run in 2008. But not only is this an upset within the GOP... but that district could definitely be in play for the Dems as it is a fairly moderate district with some labor influence.  With no incumbent and a very anti-GOP bias in much of the Ohio electorate this year, we might want to start paying attention to OH-16.

To be honest -- I know nothing about the Dems running in the district for the nomination, but whoever wins will get my support.

by Ian in DC 2006-05-02 07:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Regula Losing Primary??

Right now the Dems are battling it out:
Shaw, Thomas    Dem    5,047    50.71
Mason, Tom    Dem    4,905    49.29

I don't know much about the two candidates other than that one was a former Representative...I think, but I can't remember which.

by asearchforreason 2006-05-02 07:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Regula Losing Primary??

Or maybe it's Tom Sawyer in OH-13 who is a former Rep...too many Toms to keep track of all of them...

by asearchforreason 2006-05-02 07:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Regula Losing Primary??

And seriously, someone needs to give some insight as to why Regula is losing this race.

by asearchforreason 2006-05-02 07:28PM | 0 recs
Update on OH-16
Regula wins the primary by 205 votes
100% in
Regula, Ralph (i)    GOP    12,819    50.40
Miller, Matt    GOP    12,614    49.60
by asearchforreason 2006-05-02 07:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Update on OH-16

Looks like Tim needs to figure out where he made a mistake I guess.

by MNPundit 2006-05-02 07:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Update on OH-16

No mistake, Ohio Elects has it wrong.  That's about 2/3 of the votes cast -- the Ohio SoS site has results I trust a million times more, even if it's Blackwell's site.  As someone that worked in the 16th during the 2004 cycle, I am tempted to say I would eat, well, i dunno, do something ridiculous if Regula lost.  He's going to win that race by thousands of votes.

Tim

P.S. Tom Sawyer is the former Congressman.

by Tim Tagaris 2006-05-02 07:49PM | 0 recs
From SoS website

District  16
Regula, Ralph         21,288     55.16%
Miller, Matt         17,307     44.84%
Total Votes     38,595      

Regula locked it up

by Pitin 2006-05-02 07:57PM | 0 recs
Hmmmm

We need to wait for absentee votes I would guess... and there could be a recount... but in either case the Dems have to put this district on the map.

by Ian in DC 2006-05-02 07:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Update on OH-16

Sorry folks the Beacon-Journal was way off.  They reported 100% in but now have backed off and say
Regula 55%
Miller 45%
with 83% in

Looks like Regula will come out okay, but I'm surprised it was even this close.

by asearchforreason 2006-05-02 08:04PM | 0 recs
I'm Sorry Sulzer lost

I was really rooting for him.  Even threw him a few bones.

But at least Capri won't turn OH-13 into a top tier Republican race by buying that primary.

Guess I went 1 for 2 today, not too shabby.

But would much rather have had Sulzer win, and Capri win.

Tis life.

by Pitin 2006-05-02 07:33PM | 0 recs
I'm Calling it for Charlie Wilson. COUNT IT!
District  6
Wilson, Charles A.-WI         24,583     60.37%
Carr, Bob                 11,283     27.71%
Luchansky, John S.         4,855     11.92%
Total Votes                     40,721      
by Pitin 2006-05-02 07:37PM | 0 recs
Re: I'm Calling it for Charlie Wilson. COUNT IT!

That's a relief.  Now can someone tell me how the guy couldn't squeeze out fifty valid signatures?

by KTinOhio 2006-05-02 07:40PM | 0 recs
And in the other races...

...you know, Governor and U.S. Senate...

It looks like Ted Strickland vs. Ken Blackwell and Sherrod Brown vs. Mike DeWine, to the surprise of no one.  With about 62% of the votes counted, Strickland leads Flannery 81-19, Blackwell leads Petro 57-43, Brown leads 76-24, and DeWine leads 71-15-14.

by KTinOhio 2006-05-02 07:38PM | 0 recs
Off topic, but speaking of Ohio (back in '04)

Justin Turner did a great job managing this race and it has now been turned into a movie. From a People for the American Way email:

A Blinding Flash of the Obvious is a dynamic documentary that tells the compelling story of the 2004 Cincinnati, Ohio campaign: Citizens to Restore Fairness. This was the local campaign that helped repeal Cincinnati's 11-year-old anti-gay law that explicitly discriminated against gay, lesbian and bisexual citizens. The film is part of People For the American Way Foundation's newly launched Focus on Fairness Toolkit. Gripped by the heart and passion of business, civic and religious leaders, you will see how a small group of dedicated individuals led a community to victory.

We felt this film had to be made and the Cincinnati story shared for three reasons:

  1. It was the only pro-gay rights initiative that passed anywhere in the country in 2004.

  2. It took place in Cincinnati, in one of the five most conservative regions in the country.

  3. While the citizens of Cincinnati were undoing over a decade of discrimination against the LGBT community, they also voted against the Ohio same-sex marriage ban that passed statewide.

Check it out if you get a chance.

by Bob Brigham 2006-05-02 07:55PM | 0 recs
Turnout -not as good as we need

I posted this once and lost it

I am tired and I will be briefer than before

2002 Primary for Governor

457K Dem
552K Rep

2002 General

1.236M Dem
1.865M Rep

2006 Primary governor

561K Dem
659K Rep.

Our turnout in the primary increased by 22%, but contrary to the dispirited Rep. scenario their turnout also went up ---if by a lesser 19%.

In the general in 2002 the Reps. increased turnout by a factor of 3.3 and the Dems increased theirs by a factor of 2.7.

If you follow  that increase (and I am open to an argument why that would not be valid, but please note again that contrary to expectations that the Rep. vote also went up) then the Dem vote would be 1.530M  and the Rep. vote would be 2.174.  

Those numbers seem intuitively wrong.  However please keep in mind that our turnout did not match hopes in either Ill or in the California special election.

I am not a good enough mathenmatician and too tired to factor in the variable increase between out 22% increase and their 19% increase, but the differential of the 3% greater increase in our vote does not seem to make up the difference.

So please tell me why I am wrong.  Use words and/or numbers, but numbers seem to be one of those reality based things we need to deal with.

We shouldn't count our chickens before they go to the polls.  

by debcoop 2006-05-02 09:22PM | 0 recs
Well also the Ohio Dem. Gov. Nomination

was allready locked up and didn't attract attention. the Ohio Gop nod. was still open.

by Liberal 2006-05-02 09:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout -not as good as we need

Democrats not in competitive Congressional districts probably were not motivated to vote for the Governor's race, as everyone assumed Strickland would win.  The Rethuglican race, however, is much more competitive, and both candidates had to motivate their respective bases.

by illinois062006 2006-05-02 09:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout -not as good as we need
Well, right now (ca 2am EDT) we have roughly 89% in, but it looks like the vast majority of the uncounted votes are in Cuyahoga County, which is overwhelmingly D. With 40% in in Cuyahoga, roughly 38k votes have been cast in the D gov race, vs. only about 17k in the R column. So I'm thinking we're probably going to see in the range of 60k more D votes and maybe 20k more R votes. As of now we have D=646k, R=737k, for 41% and 34% increases, respectively. If we toss in the aforementioned numbers we get D=706 and R=767, for 54% and 39% increases.
Granted, I would like to see a much greater disparity, but I would characterize this as very good turnout, considering the D gov race was not competitive. Also, it's worth mentioning that two R incumbents, Jean Schmidt in OH-2 and Ralph Regula in OH-16, just barely escaped their primaries, and Ney's opponent in OH-18 also got a bunch of votes. So part of the higher R turnout was made up of people who are not happy with their current reps.
by taliesin 2006-05-02 10:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout -not as good as we need

Also remember in 2002 the Repub nomination was not contested (Taft was the incumbent) whereas this year it was. The D nomination was also not contested in '02, so we're apples to apples there.

by taliesin 2006-05-02 10:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout -not as good as we need

debcoop's concerns are warranted.  Primary turnout for contested elections in both parties can be a simple but not surefire predictor of partisan turnout in a general election.  Two saving graces in the gubernatorial race.  Strickland is consistently polling in first place in a November match-up.  And Petro was considered to represent more moderate Republicans while Blackwell represents the wingnuts; hopefully, tonight's results suggest that moderate Republicans and thoughtful independents will be willing to support Strickland.  Can't take the governor's race for granted.  And Brown had better get in gear!

by Phonatic 2006-05-02 11:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout -not as good as we need

Dem 723,304
Rep 784,104

As of 7:30 this morning with 95% in

Also note that the only outstanding precincts are in Cuyahoga (65% in) which will likely give the Dem numbers a net boost of some 20,000 odd votes.  And of course note that the Rep nomination was vigorously contested while Flannery never had a chance against Strickland.  Therefore, I'd say turnout was relatively high, compared to Repub turnout.

by asearchforreason 2006-05-03 03:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio Election Results Thread

Democrats currently 646,000 for the primary with 88% in so this whole thing makes no sense.

by Democraticavenger 2006-05-02 09:30PM | 0 recs
good

I'll check final turnout figres tomorrw and see if our numbers get better vis a vis thier numbers.  Nothing would make me happier,

by debcoop 2006-05-02 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio Election Results Thread

Wilson's win is a relief and a lesson. And speaking of lessons, to give credit where it is due, the GOP ran a crafty play against Wilson, that shows how much they fear him in November. I read on one of the Ohio blogs, I think it was, that they ran incessant negative ads - not against Wilson, but against one of his less well-known opponents in the primary. Apparenty they hoped to promote the name recognition of a weaker candidate, to shave Wilson's edge in the primatry.

Shrewd, ingenious, and worth remembering for the playbook, though it didn't work for them this time.

by Christopher Walker 2006-05-03 03:04AM | 0 recs
That kind of thing wouldn't be effective...

...if the media reported on these little tricks. Of course, if more people were interested in these kinds of things it also wouldn't be as effective.

by MNPundit 2006-05-03 04:42AM | 0 recs
Sombrero Power in Ohio

Sombrero Power, and the beginning of Rep. Chabot's demise:

http://ohiosfirst.blogspot.com/

by alexwinter2006 2006-05-03 10:25PM | 0 recs

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