Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

by Matt Stoller, Thu May 18, 2006 at 03:33:51 PM EDT

I just got an email about a new Rocky Mountain poll on the Arizona Senate race:

Pederson Cut Kyl's Lead By 22 Points Since January. According to a Rocky Mountain Poll released today, Jim Pederson's initial ad campaign has had a "dramatic" effect. Since January, Pederson has narrowed Kyl's lead from 29 points, at 55-26, to just seven, at 40-33. [Rocky Mountain Poll, 5/18/06]

Pederson's been on the air, which means that this is the first time voters have realized that there's an opponent to Kyl. Pederson's had some trouble with his campaign, but the recent collapse of the GOP is giving him another chance. The immigration fiasco is also wreaking havoc in this border state.

I wrote in December that Kyl was vulnerable and that his high numbers then were misleading. Unopposed candidates have a 'halo' effect, wherein they look really good to voters until there's actually a race. Look at the last Survey USA approval ratings among Democrats on Kyl (graphic below). Once Pederson went up on the air, partisans came home. That's how this works.

Tags: Jim Pederson, Jon Kyl (all tags)

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Re: Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

That's great news - thanks for the update Matt. Now I guess we just have to hope that Pederson will have enough cash to answer whatever vicious attack adds I'm sure will be thrown at him over the next several months...

by HSTruman 2006-05-18 03:41PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

pederson has a lot of personal money , so hell be well funded

by yomoma2424 2006-05-18 03:59PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

Pederson recently put $2 million into his campaign.

by piniella 2006-05-18 07:13PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

Does anyone know how much of his own money Peterson can spend before he triggers the Millionare's amendment?

by dantheman 2006-05-18 07:45PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

This is frigging GREAT news! I was worried about Pederson becase he didn't seem to be doing too much.

BTW, here's another poll:

Arizona's race between Republican incumbent Jon Kyl and Democratic challenger and former state Democratic Party chairman Jim Pederson is expected to be one of the most important and hotly contested U.S. Senate races this year. The poll found Kyl leading by 11 percentage points, 42 percent to 31 percent, with 27 percent undecided. Kyl's lead was 22 percent three months ago.
http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/200 6/4-25-06.htm

by piniella 2006-05-18 07:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

Here's another AZ poll:

From the Tucson Daily Star:

Kyl on defensive after surge by Democratic challenger
By Howard Fischer
capitol media services
Tucson, Arizona Published: 05.18.2006

A new statewide poll shows 45 percent of likely voters say they intend to support another six-year term for Kyl versus 35 percent for the commercial developer. By contrast, Kyl was ahead by a 60-26 point margin in January.

Pollster Earl de Berge who conducted the survey for the Behavior Research Center noted that much of the thrust of Kyl's TV message has been to paint Pederson as a "liberal," even linking him politically to Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and the Clintons -- both Bill and Hillary.

"It might actually be sending a positive message to people who don't know who Pederson is but tend to be more moderate or liberal," de Berge said. Instead, Kyl's commercials may be simply consolidating Kyl's own conservative base.

by piniella 2006-05-18 08:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

According to SurveyUSA, Pres. Fredo has a net -20% approval rating in AZ. Perhaps Kyl is stuck on stupid?

by piniella 2006-05-18 09:45PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

I am in Phoenix celebrating my first wedding anniversary and I have seen a number of Pederson signs and no Kyl signs. Not sure if it means anything but it is interesting.

by John Mills 2006-05-19 05:48PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kyl Drops by 22 Points After Halo Disappears

The immigration issue will indeed be a negative for the Republicans, if they continue to press for more more border control on the southern border only. I was amazed to read that Mexicans do not need a visa to visit Canada. So, fly to Canada and walk across the border unmolested if you are a potential undocumented worker. You would have less competitionn for jobs now with other undocumented workers. Sen. Kennedy was correct in saying that this is not just a border barrier issue.

by jameskbachman 2006-05-20 08:32AM | 0 recs