The Bush Rebound Narrative

by Matt Stoller, Sun May 14, 2006 at 01:50:08 PM EDT

Bush is at 29%. Will he rebound? That's the question on some journalists' minds.

Debate over how the Bush administration spies on U.S. citizens in the war on terror may actually help the president's sagging ratings, a report says.
With his popularity hovering at an all-time low, Time magazine reports in its Monday edition that more people may support Bush's spy programs than civil libertarians and Capitol Hill critics acknowledge.

The Bush rebound narrative was on the Sunday shows today. Why? What does this speculation have to do with anything? It's just random guesswork that is unrelated to anything in anyone's life. Here's a tip. When your circulation is plummeting, improve the product.

And that includes the stupid national press event tomorrow with the President on immigration. Don't cover it. You should have learned by now that when Bush speaks, it's not particularly important news.

Or you can keep covering Bush as if people believe him. That's cool. Maybe that 29% of the country that approves of him will subscribe to your paper, and the others won't mind too much. It hasn't worked for the last six years, but who knows, maybe you just haven't stuck your head far enough in the sand.

Tags: George Bush, Rebound (all tags)

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Immigration Monday

Regardless of your other points, I wanted to make plain that this immigration speech is basically for all the marbles in the GOP.

If Bush's mentions ideas that are included in the compromise this month, he will recover significantly...and GOP chances to hold the Congress increase heavily. Should this speech fail, all parties invovled are farked.

by risenmessiah 2006-05-14 02:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: Immigration Monday

top 3 issues for voters are Iraq, Katrina (the aftermath) and the economy (for conservatives framed as balloning deficits and inability to get perm tax cuts). There is nothing he can say on immigration that will help him because the divide that exist on that issue between America first conservatives and wall street conservatives isn't going away.

by bruh21 2006-05-14 02:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

Does anybody still believe any words that issue from Bush's mouth? If so, why?

How does that go? Fool me once shame on you, fool me 50 times...........

by mar2522 2006-05-14 02:14PM | 0 recs

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mar2522, your sig's off by a factor of 10

3 billion a day = 1 trillion a year.

No biggie; typos are easy to make. Just wanted to let you know.

by RT 2006-05-14 06:29PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

Tell me how his "base" is going to buy into Guest Workers...and amnesty?

by nanorich 2006-05-14 02:15PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

The question is...how will the DEMOCRATS frame the guest-worker thing?

I would certainly hope it's something along the lines of "guest workers are fine as long as they're protected by the same labor laws Americans are".

Wall Street would never go for that, so that would never happen -- but it's a nice way to get ahead of the issue.

Not that Dems are particularly adept at such things...

by Master Jack 2006-05-14 02:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

I think it is really stupid to do immigration legislation this year.

by nanorich 2006-05-14 02:31PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

I think we should just say we need to protect our borders. More border guards. American workers must be protected. Corporations must be penalized for taking advantage of immigrants and thus slighting them and the American worker. There must be a path to citizenship, etc. Besides that, shut the hell up and let the Republicans tear themselves a new one over the subject.

The only thing I can say is we need to talk up about how bad the guest worker program is. Nobody supports it except big corporations. The nativist hate it because its amnesty and most everyone else dislikes the idea because it's flat out inhumane.

We need to push these guys into a corner on this one because a guest worker program is what the compromise will be.

by Eric11 2006-05-14 03:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: Base on Guest Workers

Have you ever seen Tom Tancredo, James Sensenbrenner, et al. specifically say they don't want a guest worker program?

They don't want AMNESTY. The social conservatives are easy to please here. They will swallow the guest worker program if they get men with guns patrolling the border at will...employers of illegal immigrants getting tossed into prison, and the guest workers are ineligble for any type of political amnesty.

The "Wall Street" fiscal conservatives don't want any changes to how things are done...obviously. But they are not the type to stay "home" during an election because they have too much invested in candidates for other business ventures. Joe Minuteman on the other hand, who probably votes with the Republicans 100% of the time but donates at most a couple bucks is the guy Rove & Co. fear staying home and tipping the election to the Dems.

by risenmessiah 2006-05-14 04:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

I misspoke. We don't spend $3+billion a day in Iraq, only 1+ billion.

by mar2522 2006-05-14 02:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

The "rebound narrative" is already under way. A new headline over at NewsMax says "Bush Approval Rating Jumps Six Points". Would you be surprised to learn that it's a lie?

by Zeno 2006-05-14 02:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

Of course, we don't have to beleive polls. It works both ways.

by Bobby McGee 2006-05-14 02:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

Next week's headlines "Rove indicted - good news for Bush"

by kundalini 2006-05-14 02:38PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

I just love the analysis in the article about why the NSA issue would help Bush. Oh, wait a minute, there was no analysis. Just a reference to some Time story with no discussion of what it says. It's one thing of somebody has a bogus opinion. It's another thing when the story doesn't even pretend to back up its statement. Strange.

by elrod 2006-05-14 02:48PM | 0 recs

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Re: Immigration Monday

well thats the latest face of the issue along with gas, but the fact is we are still in an economy that is not booming for the average guy on the street. This isn't the late 90s, and everyone knows it. The next big thing hasn't hit, and 6 years out people are wondering if it will ever hit. As for talking points- that's not too suprising given that its wall street leading the charge over interest rates now that the interest rates are being raised.

by bruh21 2006-05-14 03:33PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

How?

by boadicea 2006-05-14 03:52PM | 0 recs

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indeed, one really need say nothing more ... n/t

by truth hurts 2006-05-14 08:59PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

I don't see how Bush can rebound very much, certainly not before November. His feel-good intangibles -- trustworthy, truthful, compassionate, common touch -- have all been reversed. He's seen, correctly, as an untrustworthy liar. Even if a blizzard comes to Hades and henceforth his policies are regarded as wise and just, trust isn't something you get back over the weekend.

by drlimerick 2006-05-14 03:59PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

Tain't da sand the goobers of the press have got their heads stuck in...someplace a lot moister and a bit smelly also.

Idiots to the end they are helping usher in the 'Golden Age of the Blogosphere'.

by Pericles 2006-05-14 04:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

IF he "rebounds", what will he "rebound" to....?

35%

'Nuff Said.

by sandramoore 2006-05-14 04:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

The deal is, Matt, that there's only one thing that can explain the US press corps' decades-long refusal to acknowledge reality: They're an arm of the GOP.

Remember, Roger Ailes worked for Jack Welch at NBC before he helped Rupert Murdoch start up FOX News.

Who is Roger Ailes, some of you may ask?

Oh, just a former chair of the Republican National Committee, that's all.

Many, many years ago, Upton Sinclair described perfectly the problem with our media: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

by Phoenix Woman 2006-05-14 04:49PM | 0 recs

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that sinclair quote is one of my email sigs

by truth hurts 2006-05-14 09:01PM | 0 recs

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Anyone Keeping Score on All This?

Hopefully someone's keeping score on all this. It'll be helpful once a Democrat moves back into authority.

No doubt the approach will be consistent from one regime to another.

by patachon 2006-05-14 05:22PM | 0 recs

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Illusion and reality

Will the number go up from 29? Yes. There are 25 polls every month, if the LOWEST one so far is 29, you can be sure that one of the next ones will be higher.

Will that be a rebound? NO. The mean for this month is 33.9 down almost two points from LAST month (exact value of mean will vary depending on what polls are counted and how). A REBOUND would take the mean back up 2 points.

by Good 4 A Merica 2006-05-14 05:38PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

I dunno. I don't think this is necessarily such a hot example of the "all news is good news for Bush" principle. My fave recent isntance is "Good news for Bush if Rove Gets Indicted!"

Acc. to Jason Leopold,

"Some White House staffers said it's the uncertainty of Rove's status in the leak case that has made it difficult for the administration's domestic policy agenda and the announcement of an indictment and Rove's subsequent resignation, while serious, would allow the administration to move forward on a wide range of issues."

Great news, I say! Everything works for Bush!

"'We need to start fresh and we can't do that with the uncertainty of Karl's case hanging over our heads,' said one White House aide."

Thank goodness those leftwing loonies are finally going to arrest Rove. What took them so long? Sheesh!

Course, it's kinda hard to square that theory with a 29% and free-falling approval rating. But that works for Bush too! Because, um, because....

by DrBB 2006-05-14 06:02PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

Matt,

your posts of the last few weeks seem to have become more and more vitriolic.

I agree with you that there are the beginnings of a "rebound narrative" in the media. But this is because Bush has been in the dumps for a while now, and if there is one thing reporters hate, it is a static, undymanic story. No more interesting "Bush at record low" stories can be written. The only potential twist left in this story is a rebound. However, that does not make it a fact. Because it is the only event that COULD happen does not mean it WILL happen.

As for your calls to "ignore the president tomorrow", I think that only serves to undermine the office of the presidency.
I disagree with the Bush on nearly every issue out there, but when the president of the united states deems it necessary to speak to the nation on an issue, we should respect the office and listen to him (or her). Then afterwards, we can have a lively debate/critique on the views presented.

by padraig26 2006-05-14 06:26PM | 0 recs

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the only thing that undermines the presidency

is bush.

by truth hurts 2006-05-14 09:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

The press had no problems with the undynamic story line of "popular war-time president" and, in fact, stuck too it even when significant minorities dissented. And, the next obvious twist to this story is the type of administration collapse that Nixon suffered. So there is no excusing the press - they act as an arm of the Republican party and their efforts to collaborate in the imagineering foundations of the government are unstinting.

by flyoverperson 2006-05-15 04:58AM | 0 recs

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Think there'll be any word on Medicare debacle?

Today is the deadline for folks to sign up for the Medicare drug plan. Will W. talk about this disastrous policy, or will he use the furor over immigration to deflect our attention from it?

Will the usual media mugs fall for this setting of the agenda by the administration, or will they point to this fact?

Oh, who am I kidding. It's just so much easier for the media celebrities to go along with the official line and not have to worry about being disinvited from all the best Washington cocktail parties.

And one more note. As someone wiser than me said, if deadlines are good for the Medicare drug plan, why aren't they good for Iraq?

by therling 2006-05-15 02:47AM | 0 recs

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You guys have short memories

The media pushed the "Bush on the rebound" narrative hard when he was in the low forties. It didn't work then and it won't work now.

by EliteWino 2006-05-15 05:13AM | 0 recs

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Re: The Bush Rebound Narrative

by ninapam 2006-05-17 01:24AM | 0 recs